Red Wings trade tiers: Who could be on the move at the trade deadline?

There comes a point in every NHL season where you start to pay a little more attention to the seating charts at arenas.

There are scouts at every NHL game, with each team trying to keep its reports up to date and make plans for the future. But as the deadline grows near, who is spotted where starts to become a little more than curiosity — even though you can’t always know who’s on their regular rotation, who’s on special assignment, and who’s just passing through on the way to somewhere else. You try not to put too much stock into it for that reason.

But some things force you to take a second glance. Is it a coincidence the Blues had a high-ranking front-office member credentialed for two recent games in Detroit? Or a hint that St. Louis could be considering yet another deal with Detroit? Is it still too early to start noting where the scouts are, ahem, scouting? Those are always the questions.

Since it feels like that point in the 2022-23 season is drawing near, it’s a good time to take a look at what options Detroit could have at this deadline with our 2023 Red Wings trade tiers.

The “classic rental” tier

Adam Erne: Erne won’t be the highest-priced Red Wing on the rental market, but he looks like a natural fit to move before the deadline. Playoff teams are always seeking depth, and while Erne isn’t a high-level scorer, he can bring supplementary offense to a classic grinder profile. His game is a fit for the physicality of playoff hockey, and he can kill penalties as well. Don’t expect a big-time return, but there should be interest in that profile. The Athletic’s Arthur Staple has already mentioned Erne as a name to watch for the Rangers.

The “short-term extension candidate or trade chip?” tier

Olli Määttä: Määttä would likely have the most value of anyone in this tier as a playoff-proven, shutdown defenseman who has won the Stanley Cup twice already. He’s having a great season, too — his 15 points are already more than his past two seasons combined, and have him on pace for a career high despite a bout with pneumonia earlier this season. The combination of that illness and Jake Walman’s rise has dropped him to Detroit’s third pairing of late — and his underlying numbers have dropped off in that timeframe — but Määttä’s steady, predictable game was partly credited with a breakout first half by Filip Hronek. He’d be an excellent subtle add by a contender.

Thing is, though, he’d also be a great player to keep around. Walman’s play, if it keeps up, is likely to make him the priority internal UFA on the left side of the blue line, but Määttä’s reliable game remains valuable for a team that will continue breaking in young defensemen in the coming seasons. He might be an ideal partner for Simon Edvinsson next season, for example, if Detroit feels comfortable with him on the right side.

The potential trade return could be a factor in that decision, but it’s worth keeping in mind: The one-year, $2.25 million deal Määttä signed with Detroit this summer — while an appealing number for acquiring teams — also reflects what his market was just a few months ago. But Määttä has been good for the Red Wings and is going to be one of the most interesting names to watch leading up to the deadline.

Pius Suter and Oskar Sundqvist: You wouldn’t expect the Red Wings to keep both Suter and Sundqvist, but we’re lumping them together here because both are pending UFAs who offer two valuable attributes: positional versatility and defensive value. Both can play center if needed — though the Red Wings have asked Suter to do so much more often — and are among the team’s most trusted penalty killers.

Sundqvist has the bigger role on the current team and brings a size element Suter does not, but he also might have more trade value due to his playoff experience. Suter also quietly has the better underlying defensive numbers. Trading Sundqvist to a contender and extending Suter for another year or two would be a logical approach, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see either dealt, or even both — especially if Detroit feels good about Marco Kasper’s chances of playing in the NHL next season.

Jordan Oesterle: Oesterle has been a reliable third-pair defender for the Red Wings the last two seasons, and his ability to come in and out of the lineup rather seamlessly makes him a good depth option for one more year, too — especially if the team does move Määttä. That’s why he’s in this tier, and not the classic rental one. But Detroit will certainly have to listen if a contender calls, and with multiple young defense prospects on the way, Oesterle is a candidate to move as well.

The Tyler Bertuzzi tier

Tyler Bertuzzi: By now, you know the situation with Bertuzzi. A long-time member of Detroit’s rebuild core, he is now just months from unrestricted free agency. It’s possible he and the Red Wings will be able to work something out before the deadline, but if they can’t, Detroit will have to explore moving him to avoid losing him for nothing. Complicating matters, though, has been an injury-riddled contract year, and the fact he and the Red Wings have had multiple opportunities to agree on a long-term deal during Bertuzzi’s restricted free-agent years. They couldn’t — they needed arbitration to decide one contract — and now he’s soon-to-be 28 and approaching what may be his best chance to secure a long-term commitment from someone.

Bertuzzi has been a key part of the Red Wings’ recent era, a fan favorite and one of their few consistent sources of offense. But he should also have a market at the deadline — albeit one likely hampered by a potentially flooded market for rental wingers — especially if he can find his form after so much missed time. If that’s the case and there’s no contract in place, Bertuzzi feels likely to move — and to finally bring his strong track record of playoff success at lower levels to the NHL postseason.

The “sell high with term, or hang onto? ” tier

Filip Hronek: Hronek has been a fixture of the Red Wings blue line for years, but he’s having a breakout season in 2022-23. His raw point totals are up, and entering Monday’s game against Colorado he was sporting an on-ice expected goals share above 50 percent at five-on-five. He’s playing a complete game, and at age 25, he could very well be a long-term top-four piece in Detroit if this play keeps up.

But Detroit will also have to pay Hronek accordingly when his current deal expires in 2024, and as a young, productive right-shot defender, Hronek should have considerable trade value, too. Moving a productive young defender might seem to run counter to some of the additions Detroit made this offseason, but dealing him in the midst of this breakout might be a way to recoup real draft and prospect capital.

The best bet is that the Red Wings keep Hronek and continue building their blue line into an organizational strength. But if you’re looking for an outside-the-box trade candidate, Hronek might be the most intriguing.

Dominik Kubalikand David Perron: I don’t expect the Red Wings to move either of these players, who like Määttä are delivering significant return on their bargain contracts in the 2022 free-agent period. But contenders sometimes prefer adding players with term — in order to get two playoff runs out of the deal, rather than one — and both of these contracts are highly manageable. Perron, too, has significant playoff experience in both Vegas and St. Louis.

But Detroit also brought Perron in for a reason, and he’s quickly become a leader in the locker room. Never say never if someone blows the Red Wings away with an offer, but they need him on and off the ice to continue taking steps forward.

Ditto for Kubalik, who was non-tendered by Chicago last offseason and is having a great bounce-back year for the Red Wings. Again, never say never, but especially with the way things have gone with Jakub Vrana, Kubalik’s high-level goal-scoring ability might be more valuable to the Red Wings in the lineup than on the trade market.

The “nuclear option” tier

Dylan Larkin: Larkin, since not long after he entered the league, has been a pillar of the Red Wings’ future. He’s the captain, the team’s best player, and on many nights he’s its engine. But, when you’re a pending high-profile unrestricted free agent, your name has to at least be mentioned in this kind of article.

Frankly, it’s hard to see a way for the Red Wings to win a Larkin trade. He has a full no-trade clause, for one — and even if he opted to waive it, he would still have some say in a potential destination. That can drive down the price in a deal, even though Larkin’s trade value would be considerable. But even beyond that, it’s hard to imagine a way the Red Wings would improve their position by trading the only proven top-line center in the organization. Detroit already needs another center of that caliber, and has seen just how hard it is to find them. Suddenly needing two — and losing its on- and off-ice leader in the process — would set the team back years.

My belief remains that Larkin and the Red Wings will get a deal done — whether it’s before the trade deadline, or it goes down to the wire like negotiations between Steve Yzerman and Steven Stamkos did in Tampa. There’s just too much at stake for Detroit, and Larkin has been clear he wants to stay.

And ultimately, if the Red Wings didn’t think they could get this deal done — with their most important pending UFA in many years — it’s hard to believe they wouldn’t have acted before the no-trade clause kicked in this past summer.