Reds vs. Phillies odds, predictions, picks: Don’t bet on a lot of runs Friday
Five losses in six road games played over seven days in two time zones. An offense that has produced 13 runs in the last 49 innings. A pitching staff that has already surrendered 42 runs (including eight or more three times). Multiple players injured.
Anyway you slice it, it’s been a Murphy’s Law-like start to the 2023 season for the Philadelphia Phillies: Anything that can go wrong, has gone wrong.
Just don’t put Thursday’s rainout of Philadelphia’s scheduled home opener against the Cincinnati Reds in the negative column. Because after a miserable first week of the season, that unscheduled respite just might be what the reeling Phillies needed to regroup and rejuvenate.
It certainly won’t hurt starting pitcher Zack Wheeler, who got an extra day of rest as he tries to rebound from a poor season debut.
Does all this mean we’re backing the Phillies to post win No. 2 on the same day they raise their 2022 National League championship banner at Citizens Bank Park?
Eh, not exactly.
But we do expect Wheeler to have a strong bounce-back outing. We just also expect the Phillies’ offense to continue to scuffle, this time against a 25-year-old flame-throwing right-hander.
Odds updated as of 2:15 a.m. ET on April 7.
Reds vs. Phillies Prediction: Pick
Under 7.5 runs, -120 (at BetMGM)
Reds vs. Phillies Prediction: Analysis
Wheeler was hardly in midseason form Saturday in Texas, giving up five runs (four earned) in 4 1/3 innings of a 16-3 loss to the Rangers.
Two days earlier in Cincinnati, Hunter Greene got the Opening Day nod for the Reds against Pittsburgh and he wasn’t very sharp, either (three runs, five hits and three walks in 3 1/3 innings of a 5-4 loss).
So why play the Under in Friday’s opener of a weekend series?
Because the Phillies’ offense simply cannot score with any consistency right now. Because that offense has never seen Greene’s filthy stuff. And because the Reds — who averaged 5 runs per game in a rain-shortened five-game homestand against the Pirates and Cubs — haven’t faced a pitcher of Wheeler’s caliber this season.
Regarding the Phillies’ offense: It scored five runs in the first five innings of the season against the Rangers, tacked on two more late in an 11-7 loss, and has since produced the following run totals: 3, 1, 1, 4 and 2.
Obviously, six games out of 162 is a small sample size. But it’s not surprising that a lineup that’s missing sluggers Bryce Harper (for at least another couple of months) and Rhys Hoskins (for the entire season) is struggling to cross home plate with regularity.
While the Phillies are tied for ninth in MLB with 56 hits and rank eighth with a .268 team batting average, their .223 average with runners in scoring position is 23rd in MLB. And their 59 strikeouts are tied for the eight-most in MLB.
It’s difficult to imagine those numbers improving Friday against Greene, who frequently blows past 100 mph on the radar gun — and does so effortlessly.
While the Los Angeles native allowed eight baserunners against Pittsburgh on March 30, he also fanned eight. That gives Greene at least eight strikeouts in six consecutive starts dating to last season. And even if you include last week’s subpar outing against the Pirates, Greene still has only allowed seven runs in his last seven starts covering 38 2/3 innings (1.63 ERA).
Final scores in those seven starts by Greene: 5-4, 3-1, 4-1, 5-1, 1-0, 3-1 and 2-1.
As for Wheeler, no, he didn’t have his best stuff against the Rangers in Texas. But he sure brought his best stuff to the Citizens Bank Park mound all last season.
The veteran right-hander’s ERA at home (1.85) was nearly two runs lower than it was on the road (3.84).
In fact, Wheeler has felt at home at Citizens Bank his entire career. In 45 regular-season starts in Philadelphia — 13 with the Phillies last year, 32 with the Mets previously — Wheeler is 20-9 with a stellar 2.37 ERA.
On Friday, Wheeler will be facing a Cincinnati lineup that features the names Tyler Stephenson, Spencer Steer, Kevin Newman, Will Benson, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley and an aging Wil Myers.
Not exactly Pete Rose, Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench and the 1970s Big Red Machine.
So we’ll call for Greene and Wheeler to put a bunch of goose eggs on the scoreboard Friday afternoon, and for both bullpens to hold the line and keep this one Under 8 runs.
Moneyline: Reds (+165) @ Phillies (-200)
Run Line: Reds +1.5 (-130) @ Phillies -1.5 (+105)
Total: 7.5 runs (Over +100/Under -120)
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