Revisiting F1 season predictions, Monaco GP storylines: Prime Tire

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Welcome back to Prime Tire, where we’re still wondering how to pronounce Monégasque.

Because it’s Monaco Grand Prix week, friends. It should be wet and rainy in iconic Monaco this weekend (as usual, it seems), but we should finally see some racing. We’ve got plenty to get caught up on. I’m Patrick, and Madeline Coleman will be along shortly. Let’s get to it.

F1 at the quarter pole

Did you know that, thanks to the Imola cancellation, we’re past the quarter-mark of the 2023 Formula 1 season? Time flies when you run five races in *checks calendar* 11 weeks.

So I decided to pull back for a minute before we look ahead to the hallowed Monaco Grand Prix this weekend. Before the season, our writers and managing editor made some Formula 1 season predictions. This happened before I was hired, so I get this looks like I’m throwing stones from a steel house here.

But this is more an exercise in temperature-taking than pointing. Here’s a couple of our preseason predictions that, with hindsight, caught my eye.

Constructors’ championship runner-up

Oof. Three calls for Ferrari. Nobody saw Aston Martin rocketing up the ranks so quickly – Fernando Alonso included. Still, rules are rules, and we’re looking at three air-balls here.

Drivers’ championship runner-up

Kudos to Luke for nailing the Checo pick here. It’ll probably come down to the wire between the Red Bulls. The two Leclerc picks might look better by the halfway point?

Two picked Alpine, huh? Well … It already feels like I’m picking on Alex and Madeline now. Rethinking this whole idea. Siri, remind me to delete this entire section.

Rookie of the year

Look. The argument for a good Nyck de Vries’ rookie year was … well, good. As Madeline pointed out, he won the Formula E title. He had the age and experience advantage over both of them. But … yeah. Nobody really saw this nightmare zero-point-start coming. Luke’s Piastri pick is the only one looking fine here.

Most improved team

Apologies to my boss, Alex, for the biggest whiff of the whole thing by picking AlphaTauri. However, Yuki Tsunoda looks good! The Haas drivers are on an upswing. And Luke picked Aston Martin. I’m doing it.

Most disappointing team

Look, our predictions aren’t looking perfect. But we’ve made a lot of friends along the way. And isn’t that what really matters?

Stat Corner with Pat Iverstat

Madeline’s “storybook moment” pick was Charles Leclerc winning the Monaco Grand Prix. Can’t argue with that – no doubt a victory at his iconic home race is atop the Monégasque’s bucket list.

Leclerc won the pole in Monaco last year but finished fourth. Qualifying and winning rarely correlate for Charles Leclerc. In his career, Leclerc has captured 19 poles. But he’s won just four of those races.

By comparison, Max Verstappen has 22 career poles. In those races, the reigning champ has 17 wins, 2 DNFs, and has finished P2 every other time.

We must mention the pace difference between Red Bull and Ferrari over that period. Verstappen has had the better car. Still, that’s the greatness – and race weekend consistency – Leclerc chases right now.

So, about Monaco …

It’s been a minute since we’ve seen some F1 racing. So let’s get back up to speed on three storylines we’re following this week.

• An improved outlook for McLaren. Miami turned miserable for Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri – the car didn’t have pace. Monaco’s another technical track, so we’ll see if they can fare better.
• Will the racing be better? And how many times will you hear the term “overtake” this week? (Over/Under: 567)
• Mercedes and Alfa Romeo were due for upgrades at Imola last week. Did the cancellation disrupt those plans? We’re intrigued by both teams after an uptick in performance at Miami.

Inside the Paddock with Madeline Coleman

Fans hold mixed opinions about the Monaco Grand Prix. Personally, it is one of my favorite race weekends because of its history. Plus, it’s part of motorsport’s “Triple Crown” for a reason — the street circuit is pretty narrow as the cars zip through the heart of Monte Carlo.

Everyone knows Red Bull has run away with the season thus far, but its race-day advantage may not have its usual impact in Monaco. Pole position is a crucial advantage because overtaking at this street circuit is so tricky. Passes aren’t impossible, but fewer opportunities exist — particularly after Lap 1.

Given that a flying lap during qualifying could create a bigger advantage in Monaco than other tracks on the schedule, Aston Martin and Ferrari could challenge Red Bull as they have been closer to the Milton Keynes-based team on Saturdays. Charles Leclerc, for example, took both pole positions in Azerbaijan. Granted, both Red Bull drivers secured pole position at the four other races.

Or could another driver throw together a clean Q3 to disrupt the top teams?

From the Olympics to Oscar Piastri’s ear

See that guy with his head in his hands?

That’s Oscar Piastri’s current race engineer, Tom Stallard. (Race engineers are like caddies for drivers.) He went from Olympic rowing heartbreak to guiding McLaren’s rookie around F1 tracks, and Luke has a fascinating story on him this morning. I found his mind so interesting – he thinks about F1 like someone born of two worlds. Because he is.

“What’s going on in (the driver’s) mind and his movements, and how that affects the control of the car, and the competitive aspects of that, I find really, really exciting,” he said. “That transcends the two sports that I’ve done.”

Never tyred talking about tires

One thing that surprised me: the relationship between tyre design and the “show vs. sport” debate (which I know must be tyring by now). If there’s any sense out there that F1 would scrap their entyre rulebook to make for a better show, Luke’s points about more durable tyres should retyre those thoughts.

Anyway, it’s a good piece, and you should definitely check it out. If not this morning, definitely before you shed your work attyre and retyre for the evening.

And a special shout-out to our European commenters under that article: we saw your comments about how to spell “tire.” We saw the entyre thread! We hope you enjoyed this bit of satyre.

(Top photo of Fernando Alonso and Carlos Sainz: CHANDAN KHANNA/AFP via Getty Images)