Rockets vs Trail Blazers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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08 March 2024

Rockets vs Trail Blazers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Alperen Sengun has been stuffing the stat sheet non-stop of late, and the shorthanded Trail Blazers should prove no match for the Rockets center, per our NBA betting picks.

When two bottom-feeders of the NBA get together, there’s usually not a lot to be excited about. But the Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers each have a budding star stuffing the stat sheet as of late.

The NBA odds have the Rockets as a six-point road favorite thanks in part to the recent dominant play of center Alperen Sengun. Will the third-year player be able to keep up his pace against the Blazers?

Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks and predictions for Rockets vs. Trail Blazers on Friday, March 8.

Rockets vs Trail Blazers odds

Rockets vs Trail Blazers predictions

Few players have progressively gotten better over the last three seasons as rapidly as Alperen Sengun. The 16th overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft already has the fourth-most win shares of his class — behind Evan Mobley, Scottie Barnes, and Franz Wagner — despite landing with a Houston Rockets team that has rarely made any noise in the West.

Now in his third season in the NBA, Sengun is beginning to look like a potential perennial All-Star averaging a career-high in points (21.3), rebounds (9.4), and assists (5), and has even drawn comparisons to the likes of two-time MVP Nikola Jokic.

While he’s not yet playing at the same level as Joker, the 21-year-old has taken his game to another level as of late and is poised to continue his jaw-dropping play against the lowly Portland Trail Blazers.

The Blazers are 17-44, sitting 14th in the Western Conference, and are dealing with a laundry list of injuries. Portland’s defensive rating of 117.3, which ranks 21st in the NBA, is a little misleading as Chauncey Billups’ team is expected to be without four key players and has lost 11 of its past 13 games.

One of those players is former No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton. The Blazers big man has missed the last four games with a hand injury and is listed as doubtful for the matchup against Houston. That puts Portland in a precarious situation against a talented big like Sengun.

The Blazers have already struggled with centers this season, allowing the sixth-most points in the NBA to them (24.4) and the eighth-most rebounds (15.24). That sets Sengun up well to have a strong performance and hit the Over on his line of 38.5 points, assists, and rebounds.

While Sengun has emerged as a star this season, he’s been particularly impressive over his last three games. He’s averaging 29.7 points, 15 rebounds, and 6.3 assists during the span, including a career-high 45-point night in a 114-101 win over the San Antonio Spurs.

Keeping up that pace isn’t realistic, but Sengun can have another strong night against this banged-up Blazers team. Portland has been at its worst inside the arc, allowing teams to shoot 58.2% from two, worst in the NBA.

That bodes well for Sengun, who shoots 57% from two on 13.8 attempts per game and can take advantage of Portland’s issues in the paint. Billups’ squad gives up the fifth-most points in the paint in the NBA (54.5) and Sengun leads Houston in both paint touches (6.3) and paint points (5.2) per game this season.

He should also find plenty of opportunities to rack up rebounds with the Trail Blazers being 26th in the NBA in rebounds per game (41.7) while ranking as the worst defensive rebounding team in the league (29.5 per game).

With a usage rate of 27.1% — 27th-highest in the NBA among players who have played at least 40 games — Sengun will see enough touches to give this Portland defense all it can handle.

My best bet: Alperen Sengun Over 38.5 points + assists + rebounds (-115 at bet365)

Rockets vs Trail Blazers same-game parlay

Alperen Sengun Over 38.5 points + assists + reboundsJabari Smith Over 8.5 reboundsAnfernee Simons Under 27.5 points

Jabari Smith should see his fair share of action around the glass along with Sengun. With Portland’s rebounding issues this season, both Sengun and Smith will be in position to pull down boards.

Smith is averaging 8.5 rebounds per game on the season and has had at least nine in 29 of 57 games, including eight of his last 13. While Sengun and Smith are a talented young tandem, Portland has needed to lean on its young talent for much of the season too.

Anfernee Simons has been unstoppable lately with three straight games of at least 29 points. But his point total is now surprisingly high at 27.5. The former first-round pick does lead Portland in points per game (22.8), however, he’s only had 15 games of at least 28 points this season.

Houston poses a tough matchup for the 24-year-old, with the Rockets limiting shooting guards to just 21.12 points per game this season, seventh-fewest in the NBA.

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Rockets vs Trail Blazers spread and Over/Under analysis

After opening with the Rockets favored by 4.5 to 5 points, the line has ballooned to Houston -6 or -6.5 due to the Trail Blazers’ injury situation.

For all the Rockets’ struggles this season, they’ve been one of the better teams in the NBA ATS, going 32-28-1 and covering in each of the last four games. Portland is in the bottom half ATS at 29-32, but has also covered in each of its last four games. When these two teams played in January, Portland covered as a 10-point underdog.

The game total opened between 218.5 and 219 with most books settling in at 219. Houston has struggled to hit the Over consistently this season, going 27-33-2, and have hit the Under in four of its last five. The Blazers aren’t much better, going 29-32 betting the Over. In the previous matchup, with the game total at 220, the Over hit.

Rockets vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know

The Rockets have covered the 4Q Spread in 19 of their last 27 away games (+11.45 Units / 38% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Trail Blazers.

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