Rockies vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks, Odds

Fenway Park is often a place for offensive eruptions. But our MLB betting picks show why that may not be the case when the current versions of the Boston Red Sox and Colorado Rockies are involved. And especially when James Paxton is on the mound.

The Boston Red Sox will try to revive their struggling offense on Monday night while hosting the Colorado Rockies at Fenway Park.

Boston (33-33) took two of three from the New York Yankees over the weekend, but the club still only scored seven runs in the series. The Colorado Rockies (27-40) hope that trend continues, as the team fields one of the worst pitching staffs in the majors.

Red Sox manager Alex Cora says he expects to see his team start scoring more runs again, as long as Boston can begin getting some key hits. We’ll break down whether that will start Monday in our free MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Rockies on June 12.

Rockies vs Red Sox odds

Rockies vs Red Sox predictions

The offensive struggles of the Boston Red Sox didn’t start during their series with the New York Yankees. The Red Sox have scored five runs or fewer in each of their last nine games, and three or fewer in eight of those outings. That’s not a winning formula, as they're 3-6 during that stretch.

The Colorado Rockies haven’t exactly been crushing the ball either. Colorado is averaging 4.45 runs per game, a bit below the league average of 4.54. That number isn’t getting any better, as the Rockies have been scoring just 4.2 runs per game so far in June.

What’s especially concerning about those numbers is that these two teams play in a couple of the league's best ballparks for offense. As usual, Statcast ranks Coors Field as MLB's best stadium for offense, with a runs factor of 125. Fenway Park is right behind at 119 while ranking second.

Sometimes park factors are a reason to look toward the Over. But the opposite is suggested in this case. We can’t expect Fenway Park to boost the offense on Monday because the park factors are already baked into the stats. Fenway might actually bring the Rockies' offense down, at least comparatively, especially since Boston's home field produces fewer home runs than Coors.

Turning to the pitching matchup, Connor Seabold carries a 5.10 ERA into Monday's game, but he actually boasts a positive WAR thanks to the Coors Field park factors. Seabold has also pitched well lately, giving up just three runs on five hits over 11 1/3 innings across his last two starts.

The Red Sox are countering with lefty James Paxton, who's putting up another solid season in his first campaign with Boston. Paxton has also been strong over his last two starts, and the Rockies have been performing poorly against left-handed pitching while putting up just a .654 OPS.

With two teams struggling to score runs lately, no boost to be expected from Fenway, and a tough matchup for the Rockies, this isn’t shaping up to be a slugfest. Take the Under.

My best bet: Under 9.5 runs (-105 at BetMGM)

Rockies vs Red Sox same-game parlay

Under 9.5 runs

Red Sox ML

Paxton Over 6.5 strikeouts

My SGP pick for Monday’s game is built entirely around the reasoning for my best bet. We’ll use the Under and combine it with the fact the Rockies are clearly the worst side in this matchup, picking the Red Sox to snag a win at home.

Paxton is lined up to produce a big game against a Colorado lineup that simply doesn’t hit lefties. The Rockies are striking out on 26.7% of their plate appearances against southpaws, a horrendous rate that doesn’t figure to get better against a strong pitcher away from Coors Field. Paxton has struck out at least eight batters in three of his five starts in 2023, including his last two. We can expect that trend to continue on Monday with a favorable matchup.

The southpaw's strikeout total should correlate well with both the Red Sox winning and the Under, even more than how the sportsbooks are baking this into their SGP odds. If the Red Sox win a reasonably low-scoring game, which is a likely outcome, I expect this parlay to pay out.

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Rockies vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Red Sox opened as a -235 favorite. That number has shifted slightly further in Boston’s direction, with the consensus line coming in around -250 as of noon ET on Monday. If you’re looking to back the underdog, you can find numbers as long as +215 on Colorado.

The Red Sox have been the better team for bettors in 2023 while making a little over two units on the moneyline. The Rockies haven’t met expectations while coming up almost four units short.

The public has been all over Boston prior to Monday's contest, and I agree with the crowd. Even though the moneyline doesn’t provide much value, Paxton should cruise through the Rockies' lineup. The Red Sox are the clear lean.

Meanwhile, the total for Monday opened at 10 runs. There are still some books sitting on that number, though the majority have since moved the total down to 9.5. There’s a slight lean toward the Over at that number through many books. You can get -105 on the Under but may need to settle for -115 on the Over.

These teams have played to opposite records against the total. The Over is 37-28-1 in Red Sox games, while the Under is 38-28-1 when the Rockies play. However, Boston has been struggling to score lately, and the Under is 7-2 in its last nine games.

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Trend to know

The Under is 7-2 in Boston's last nine games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Red Sox.

Rockies vs Red Sox game info

Starting pitchers

Connor Seabold (1-2, 5.10 ERA): Seabold spent his first two seasons with the Red Sox, going 0-4 in six total starts. The 27-year-old is finally getting a real shot in Colorado, with the Rockies using him both in the rotation and out of the bullpen. Seabold is coming off a strong start against the San Francisco Giants when he gave up just two runs on two hits over six innings.

James Paxton (2-1, 3.81 ERA): After missing most of 2021 and all of 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Paxton finally made his debut for the Red Sox in May following a hamstring issue that cost him even more time. However, he seems to have been worth the wait. Paxton has recorded a 3.54 FIP and a 1.231 WHIP over his first five starts. He went seven innings while allowing two runs in his last outing against the Cleveland Guardians on June 6.