Rockies win World Series in 2033? Why MLB.com's prediction is nuts, and why it could happen
Last week, MLB.com released predictions for the next 10 World Series matchups. Perhaps the most surprising forecast for a future Fall Classic was the Rockies beating the Angels for the title in 2033.
MLB.com writer Will Leitch didn’t give much of a meaty explanation for the pick, other than to say “it’s gonna be the Rockies’ time at some point” to win a championship. After all, Colorado’s never won the National League West in 31 years of existence and has been to only one World Series, the miraculous Rocktober run in 2007, when the Rockies were swept by the Red Sox.
Here’s a breakdown of the chances of a championship parade in LoDo in 2033, starting with three reasons why Leitch’s pick is nuts, and ending with donning some purple-tinted glasses to find three scraps of hope that somehow the Rockies could finally raise a banner in their 41st season. Spoiler alert: None of these scenarios involves Dick Monfort selling the team.
Chances are less than zero!
Dodgers rule with an iron fist in the NL West. Los Angeles won 10 of the last 11 divisional titles heading into 2024, and over the next decade, that trend holds. The Dodgers continue to draft well and outspend every team in baseball, so they win nine of the next ten divisional titles. San Francisco’s president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi keeps the Giants competitive with L.A., but they have to settle for a lot of wild cards, as do the Padres. After making the 2023 World Series, the Dbacks’ luck runs dry in the desert. And Shohei Ohtani turns out to be worth every cent, winning a few Cy Youngs and a couple World Series MVPs. In the meantime, Colorado earns a couple of wild cards, but loses on the road in the opening round both times.
Colorado’s draft-and-build model fails. For a franchise largely dependent on homegrown talent, the Rockies continue to struggle in the draft. A few prospects pan out as they’d hope, but for the most part, each winter Colorado is stuck trying to rebuild its underperforming roster with cheap veterans off the scrap heap. Like the prospects, a couple of those veterans work out, a la C.J. Cron, but the combination of a weak-to-mediocre farm system along with underwhelming free-agent acquisitions keeps the Rockies right where they’ve been for the last half-decade: at or near the bottom of the NL West. The draft lottery doesn’t do Colorado any favors, either, as it fails to get the No. 1 pick despite missing the playoffs the majority of the next decade.
Pitching remains the Rockies’ big problem. This issue might never be solved. Long after German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland leave town, Colorado is still trying to figure out how to put together a consistent rotation. The rare starting pitcher who is able to deliver a premier season, or even two, can’t keep that going in the long run. The bullpen, by and large, remains a mess and a central weak point. Arm injuries keep derailing the Rockies’ rotation, too, with the wear-and-tear of elevation likely a primary factor in that. And the Rockies’ lack of success in the open market holds true: Big-time, free-agent pitchers in their prime don’t want to come pitch at Coors Field, and the front office doesn’t want to pay them anyway.
Start The Parade Planning!
The Dodgers’ wasted spending spree. Over in L.A., the Dodgers’ plan to buy a title backfires. In the last season of his contract in 2033, Shohei Ohtani makes the final years of Albert Pujols’ deal with the Angels and Miguel Cabrera’s deal with the Tigers look productive. After a third major elbow surgery, and second time undergoing Tommy John, the Japanese superstar is a shell of his former self and can’t pitch anymore. Several other highly paid Dodgers starters bust, a primary factor in L.A. posting its first losing season since 2010, when that club went 80-82. And the Rockies pay the Dodgers back for years of being L.A.’s little brother, losing only once to the Dodgers at home while also going eight games over .500 at Chavez Ravine.
Colorado’s recent top draft picks blossom. Five seasons after the last current Rockies player’s contract ends — Kris Bryant’s $182 million mega-deal finishes in 2028 — GM Bill Schmidt sits in his office, smoking a cigar and laughing, after hitting on a handful of draft picks from around this current time. Jordan Beck, Zac Veen and Benny Montgomery are all All-Star outfielders, and Beck wins the franchise’s second MVP award while slugging 58 homers en route to the ’33 title. On the pitching side, Colorado’s longtime GM finds a couple of steals on the open market while right-handers Gabriel Hughes and Jaden Hill are a dominant one-two punch in the rotation after overcoming injuries and big question marks early in their minor league careers.
The second Rocktober is even better. With the Dodgers in the dumps in ’33, and the Rockies with perhaps the most balanced lineup they’ve ever had — plus an unusually sturdy bullpen headlined by veteran Victor Vodnik, who is making good on a contract extension that made him the club’s highest-paid reliever ever a few seasons prior — Colorado clinches its first division title in early September. The Diamondbacks finish in last place, while the Dodgers are a few games above them and the Giants and Padres are left battling for second. Winning 21 of 22 games en route to the 2007 World Series was nice, but this LoDo squad manages to top that magic. The Rockies sweep the NLDS and NLCS before topping the Angels in five games.
