Sabres mailbag: Cost of a long-term contract for Owen Power

Owen Power’s agent, Pat Brisson, spoke to Buffalo Sabres general manager Kevyn Adams during the week of the scouting combine as the two sides continue to talk about a long-term contract for the first overall pick in the 2021 draft.

Power wants to sign with Buffalo when eligible July 1. He, like Rasmus Dahlin, has expressed a desire to be part of the Sabres’ long-term plans. Agents for both players continue to grind away with the Sabres to try to complete a deal. Neither player has reached an agreement with the team.

There’s excitement and optimism on both sides of the negotiations that the deals will get done, though it's uncertain if the framework of either deal will be complete before they are eligible to put pen to paper in two weeks.

There’s no rush. Dahlin and Power aren’t restricted free agents until the summer of 2024. It is a priority for the Sabres to get both signed, though, and there are recent comparables that show what a Power contract could look like. Power, 20, produced 35 points while carrying a workload unlike any rookie defenseman in years.

In my latest mailbag, reader John Brown asked what to expect with the contract. My friends at CapFriendly.com provided two examples of long-term contracts that Power’s agent might use as a template. Florida’s Aaron Ekblad signed an eight-year, $60 million contract following his second NHL season in 2016, and Dallas inked Miro Heiskanen to an eight-year, $67.6 million pact after his third NHL season in 2021.

If Power prefers a bridge contract before a long-term agreement, the Sabres could offer something like the three-year, $18 million deal Dahlin signed in 2021. AFP Analytics projects a $4.423 million average annual value for Power on a three-year deal if he signs short term.

"Right off the faceoff here, let's push back on a lazy national media narrative seen in several places last week: Jack Eichel's Stanley Cup is not remotely like Ryan O'Reilly's," Mike Harrington writes.

Here are other questions submitted by readers via email or Twitter:

Matiss Baumanis: What is Zemgus Girgensons’ future?

LL: The Sabres will find out soon. They want Girgensons back, but they can only offer a short-term contract. Recent market trends show a player such as Girgensons can get a three- or four-year contract in free agency. He’ll decide which path is preferable at this stage of his career. If Girgensons walks, the Sabres will look to acquire someone with a similar skill set in a trade or free agency on a one-year contract. The team has a similar view on Tyson Jost, who is also a restricted free agent. Buffalo wants Jost back on a one-year deal.

Joseph Pitirri: Who is the Sabres’ pick at No. 13, and in which round will the local prospects be selected?

LL: I’ll frame my answer as what I would do with the 13th pick: Russian defenseman Dmitriy Simashev. He’s 6-foot-4, fits Don Granato’s preferred style of play and provides a physical component the Sabres lack in their prospect pipeline. Simashev is under contract in the Kontintental Hockey League for two more seasons, but the Sabres can afford to wait, and he might be NHL-ready when he’s free to head to North America. It’s tempting to take one of the high-end forwards in this draft, but, in my opinion, there’s a significant gap between Simashev and the defensemen who will be available when Buffalo is on the clock for the seventh pick of the second round.

The Sabres are trending in the right direction, and the early odds reflect that. 

Pete Schaub: How would you remake the Sabres’ bottom six?

LL: There’s no way to remake any part of this lineup, given the contractual situations and prospects in the pipeline, but there’s one notable move I’d make to supplement the bottom-six if Girgensons walks as a free agent. The Sabres should acquire the rights of restricted free agent Ross Colton from the Tampa Bay Lightning, even if the acquisition cost is a second-round pick. Colton, 26, produced 38 goals over the past two seasons. He can play center or wing and, according to Evolving-Hockey.com, is projected to receive a four-year contract with an average annual value of $3.35 million.

Andrew: What is the Sabres’ plan in net?

LL: I expect it to be Devon Levi and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen. Adams will inquire about goalies on the trade market and possibly check the price tag for someone such as Frederik Andersen, but there doesn’t seem to be an option that fits with the Sabres’ short- and long-term plan. Carrying two goalies on cheap contracts ensures that there’s cap flexibility. However, there’s also risk in betting on two unproven options.

JDSymon86: Do you think Adams is willing to move prominent prospects, players or draft picks to upgrade the roster now that he has identified the core?

Forever tied by their UConn connection, and some similarities to their strengths on the ice, Wood and Thompson could soon be competitors or teammates.

LL: You’re not going to see the Sabres bail on their long-term plan. Matt Savoie and Jiri Kulich aren’t going anywhere. The return will have to be high for them to move Isak Rosen or Noah Ostlund. Is the team more open to a trade involving prospects or draft picks now, compared with last summer? Absolutely. But Adams shouldn’t have to move either player to address the need on defense, unless it’s a young player with term on his contract.

Mendy2828: Are the Sabres more likely to move their first-round pick because it’s top heavy with forwards and that’s a strength in the organization?

LL: Absolutely not. This is regarded as one of the deepest drafts in years, and you can never have too much talent in your prospect pipeline, especially if the Sabres are going to need time to develop into a full-time NHL contributor. The Sabres might move up in the first round, or back if the return is right, but they’re going to make a pick June 28 in Nashville.

Nelson16Toronto: If you had three moves to improve the roster, what would they be?

LL: First, I’d trade Victor Olofsson, the rights to restricted free-agent winger Brett Murray and a second-round draft pick in 2024 to the Carolina Hurricanes for defenseman Brett Pesce, who can partner with Rasmus Dahlin or Owen Power.

A deep run into the playoffs would put a crimp into Central Scouting's plans here through 2025.

Pesce, like Olofsson, is entering the final year of his contract, so you’d essentially kick your defense problem to next offseason, but I’d advocate for this move given the price tag and player.

Next, I’d move the Sabres’ second-round pick – not the pick from Philadelphia that they own from the Rasmus Ristolainen trade – to the Lightning for Colton.

Finally, I’d trade defenseman Jacob Bryson to the Seattle Kraken for a late-round draft pick to create a much-needed roster spot that will be valuable if the Sabres have to carry Matt Savoie next season. This also creates flexibility to add a free-agent depth forward that could potentially bolster the penalty kill.

Paul Kasprzak: Which concerns the Sabres more: adding a defenseman or a goalie to work in tandem with Devon Levi?

LL: Adding a top-four defenseman is the organization’s priority. It’s no secret that Adams tried to land Jakob Chychrun before he was dealt from Arizona to Ottawa. The Sabres need a big, mobile defenseman who fits their style of play. This is more than insurance in case Mattias Samuelsson deals with injuries next season.

We’ve learned through three NHL drafts by Buffalo Sabres General Manager Kevyn Adams that hi…

Contending teams are deep on the blue line, and we saw late in the season that Granato couldn’t trust his third pair. Granato needs more blue-line options to create the optimal lineup. The Sabres’ goaltending with Levi and Luukkonen will be strong enough if they defend and protect the puck as they did in the final weeks of the season when the rookie from Northeastern was in net.

Alex Bond-Ouellet: Will the Sabres be able to keep associate general manager Jason Karmanos?

LL: The Sabres got lucky this summer. Karmanos seemed like the ideal candidate to join the Pittsburgh Penguins as president of hockey operations, but Kyle Dubas’ firing in Toronto changed everything. Karmanos has played a pivotal role in the improvement throughout the Sabres’ organization. He’ll continue in his job with Buffalo, but no one should be surprised if he is a candidate elsewhere next summer. Karmanos has too much experience and success to not receive more job interviews.

Matt: Will the Sabres be able to add grit and toughness, and, if Zemgus Girgensons leaves, will they replace him?

LL: There are players who get you to the playoffs and players who help you advance once you get there. Girgensons’ approach can fit into both categories. He’ll be a valuable contributor on a postseason team if he signs elsewhere. And if Girgensons walks, the Sabres must replace him with a forward like Colton.

There isn’t a forward in the prospect pipeline ready to fill Girgensons’ role. The Sabres addressed the need for grit and toughness by acquiring Jordan Greenway and Riley Stillman.

Former Sabres center Jack Eichel, traded to the Vegas Golden Knights in November 2021, had never appeared in a playoff game until this year. He is now one win from the Stanley Cup.

Chris Ostrander: Is there a goalie available that’s not being discussed to the extent that we’re hearing about Connor Hellebuyck and Frederik Andersen?

LL: If the Sabres trade Luukkonen, they better get a legitimate NHL goalie or goaltending prospect as part of the return. They already lost Erik Portillo, and 2022 second-round pick Topias Leinonen isn’t close to coming to North America.

Here’s an interesting name: Spencer Knight of the Florida Panthers. The Sabres’ last regime liked Knight ahead of the 2019 draft, but chose Dylan Cozens with the seventh pick. Knight was chosen by the Panthers with the 13th pick and rushed to the NHL in 2021. He had a .908 save percentage in 22 games in 2021-22, then signed a three-year contract with a $4.5 million annual cap hit.

Buffalo will have plenty of background information on Knight, who hasn’t played since he entered the NHLPA Player Assistance Program in February. Florida needs the cap space, and he might benefit from a fresh start.

Knight was at the USA Hockey National Team Development Program at the same time as Rochester coach Seth Appert. The Panthers need the cap space to sign players such as Sam Reinhart, and it’s going to be difficult for them to move Sergei Bobrovsky’s $10 million-per-season contract. Knight is intriguing, but I don’t see the Sabres taking on that contract with the risk involved.

The Sabres are in talks with another ECHL team and an affiliate agreement will be announced sometime this summer, a source added.

Rachel Bennett: How will Rochester look with more drafted prospects added to the roster, and how will they replace goalie Malcolm Subban if he leaves as a free agent?

LL: Most of the roster will be the same. Michael Mersch and Ethan Prow have one year left on their AHL contracts. At least at the start of the season, I suspect you’ll see Rosen, Rousek and Weissbach on the roster. Bigger roles are in store for Filip Cederqvist, Aleksandr Kisakov and Tyson Kozak. Olivier Nadeau is going to be in the lineup as a net-front presence. Viktor Neuchev will assume Jiri Kulich’s spot on the power play. The defense will be more prospect-laden with Ryan Johnson, Nikita Novikov and Rochester signing Zach Metsa. I expect to see a few important players return on AHL contracts, most notably Mason Jobst and Kohen Olischefski.

The organization has decisions to make on Brett Murray and Brandon Biro, neither of whom will be able to go to Rochester without waivers. Both are restricted free agents. Barring injury or underperformance in training camp, I expect Kulich to be in Buffalo.

As for the goaltending, Eric Comrie is the leading candidate if Luukkonen and Levi are in the NHL. This plan carries risk, because it is possible Comrie would be claimed off waivers if the Sabres attempt to send him to Rochester.

Victor Olofsson’s benching signaled to other teams in the NHL that the Swedish winger could be available in a trade this summer.

Lazytown716: What is Victor Olofsson’s value before the draft?

LL: I won’t place a specific price tag on Olofsson, but it is higher than some fans think. The Sabres could package him with a draft pick to acquire a defenseman or move him to add a draft pick that can be moved elsewhere to supplement the NHL roster. Adams also has the option to retain salary, which could strengthen the return. Olofsson is successful in his role as a power-play shooting threat. Teams across the NHL will want someone with his skill set and production, despite the inherent flaws in his game.

Jonesy: What did we learn from these playoffs that needs to change in the Sabres’ lineup?

LL: Big, mobile defensemen are essential. This is why the Sabres should target a blue-liner such as Hanifin, Pesce or Alec Martinez. The bottom of Buffalo’s defense depth chart is in a good place with Ilya Lyubushkin and Riley Stillman.

Also, Vegas showed that you need to be able to play against any type of team. Forechecking must be a strength of a winning team, but the Golden Knights also thrive when given chances to score off the rush. Adin Hill’s playoff performance is a reminder that you don’t need an elite goaltender if you have a great position coach and your club defends well.