Sack race odds: Best bet on the first Premier League manager to be sacked
Sack Race Betting Tip:
The 2023/24 Premier League will contain a fantastic group of managerial talent but the majority of the men involved know their job security could rapidly evaporate.
There were 22 managerial changes in the top flight of English football last season, with 12 sackings and two more bosses leaving by mutual consent – essentially the same thing.
Both figures were new records for a single campaign, so betting sites had their work cut out when it came to the sack race odds throughout last season.
With that in mind, it’s worth looking at the 'First Manager To Leave Their Post' market on BoyleSports before sizing up the best picks. Here are the key men in the sack race odds as things stand, as well as some important factors to consider below.
BoyleSports’ Premier League sack race odds:
- Julian Lopetegui – 6/4
- Paul Heckingbottom – 11/2
- Marco Silva – 9/1
- Steve Cooper – 10/1
- David Moyes – 10/1
- Roy Hodgson – 14/1
- Andoni Iraola – 14/1
- Sean Dyche – 14/1
Consider the timing when betting on the sack race
Scott Parker was dismissed before August was out last season, though he was the first boss to leave within that month (in-season) for 18 years. A repeat on the timing front is unlikely.
On average, the first manager to leave their role in each of the last 10 seasons went in October, with the international break that month offering a good opportunity for change. Barring a truly disastrous start to the 2023/24 campaign, managers should have a little grace period before the first man leaves.
Table position all important in sack race betting
Watford are not in the Premier League this season but they are well known for their regular managerial changes. In 2021/22, they dismissed Xisco Munoz even though he had the Hornets in an encouraging 14 position.
In the last 10 years, Munoz is the only instance of the first manager leaving his role with the side above 17 in the table. The other clubs were more reasonable in considering a change of gaffer after slow starts to the campaign.
Club status a key factor in sack race odds
The last five clubs who made the first sacking of the season, from 2022/23 backwards, were Bournemouth, Watford, West Bromwich Albion, Watford (again, inevitably) and Fulham.
Of the newly promoted teams this term, Vincent Kompany (25/1) looks secure at Championship winners Burnley, but Paul Heckingbottom (Sheffield United) is second favourite with BoyleSports at 11/2. Luton's Rob Edwards is a 14/1 outsider.
Fixture difficulty a real threat in the sack race
If we assume the October international break is a likely time for the next manager to be sacked, teams have eight games to determine their fate.
We can average the predicted finishing position of the sides each club will face to get an indication of fixture difficulty. Doing this reveals Bournemouth have the trickiest opening, with games against Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, Brighton and Arsenal among their first seven.
The Cherries appointed Andoni Iraola this summer. Though highly rated, he is unfamiliar with English football, but bookies have him seventh in the market to go first at 14/1. With a very tough schedule, Iraola could be under pressure quicker than the bookies think.
Who’s favourite in 2023/24 sack race odds?
The manager with the unwanted spot at the top of the sack race market is Wolverhampton Wanderers boss Julen Lopetegui, at 6/4.
Having been bottom of the table at Christmas 2022, Wolves did well to finish last season in 13. However, they have lost Nathan Collins, Joao Moutinho and Ruben Neves, among others.
Wolves also have a testing start to the new campaign. Their first three home fixtures see them host Brighton, Liverpool and Manchester City, while they open with a trip to Old Trafford.
That goes some way to explaining Lopetegui being favoured by both established and new betting sites.
Other major contenders in Premier League sack race
Nottingham Forest’s Steve Cooper (6/1) is second in the sack race odds. With away games at Arsenal, Chelsea and both Manchester clubs in their first six games, Forest could easily prop up the early-season table.
The other manager within the top six in the sack race odds we’ve not yet mentioned is Marco Silva, whose odds of 9/1 look particularly appealing to us.
The Fulham boss is into the final year of his contract and has yet to sign an extension. A relatively kind opening may see Silva safe, though games at Arsenal and Manchester City plus a home derby with Chelsea early on will prove testing.
Best pick for Premier League sack race winner
Silva at 9/1 with BoyleSports is the best value selection, in our opinion.
Fulham were the biggest over-achievers against expected goals in the Premier League last season – had they underachieved by the same margin, they would have been relegated.
While not facing the most difficult start, only Forest have more matches against the predicted top six in their first seven games. Fulham will also feel minimal loyalty to Silva if he does not extend his contract.
Add in that Everton went from eighth in his first season to 18 at the point he was sacked in the second and Silva looks a sensible choice in this market.
