Saints vs Falcons prediction, preview: NFL picks, odds

The New Orleans Saints are facing one of their biggest tests of the 2023 season, as they’ll be taking on the Atlanta Falcons in an important NFC South battle.

The two division rivals are currently the two favorites to win the NFC South, with the Saints currently in first place and having the best divisional odds at Caesars Sportsbook, but the Falcons have a golden opportunity to make up ground in that race.

The current betting line is slightly in favor of the Saints, as they’re now 1.5-point road favorites with the news of Derek Carr being ready to start at quarterback after clearing concussion protocol.

Below I’ll break down what I like about both teams and analyze the matchup to come up with a final score pick and a best bet.

Reasons to like the Saints

The Saints are in position to take a commanding lead in the NFC South if they can come away with a win this week, and they appear to be the better team on paper despite suffering some key injuries in their Week 10 loss. Derek Carr will be back under center and should be able to bounce back despite losing veteran wide receiver Michael Thomas with rookie A.T. Perry stepping up last week in place of Thomas. The Saints running game should also thrive with Alvin Kamara usually having his way with the Falcons defense, and the Saints defensive front has also tended to have the upper hand in this matchup with Cameron Jordan leading the charge. Saints top cornerback Marshon Lattimore will also be out, but it might not hurt that much since the Falcons have struggled getting the ball down the field.

Reasons to like the Falcons

The Falcons have lost their last three games, but they were competitive in all three of those defeats and have enough talent on both sides of the ball to compete in this matchup even though they don’t have as much experience. Desmond Ridder returns as the Falcons starting quarterback, and while he’s underperformed, the Falcons have the weapons in Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts to challenge a Saints defense that has struggled recently. Ridder could also give the Saints trouble as a runner considering they’ve struggled against mobile quarterbacks, and Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo has been a difference maker at the position. The Falcons defense hasn’t performed as well lately similar to the Saints, but they’ve clearly improved from last season on that side of the ball.

The bottom line

This rivalry game between the Saints and Falcons could very well decide who wins the NFC South, as the winner will have serious momentum heading into the stretch run. It appears more important for the Falcons considering they’ll be two games out of first place if they lose, but it’s also important for the Saints since a loss would leave them vulnerable in the division race, as they already lost to a divisional foe in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers earlier this season. I could see the Saints coming out strong on the road, but I don’t have faith in them playing a complete game considering how inconsistent they’ve been this season, and while the Falcons have also been inconsistent, I see Koo drilling a last-second field goal for them to pull off a win at home to keep the NFC South race interesting.

The pick: Falcons 23, Saints 20

Betting line: Saints (-1.5, -130) at Falcons (+110), 41.5 O/U

Best bet: Falcons +1.5 (-110)

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook, official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com