Saints vs Lions prediction, picks, betting odds

The New Orleans Saints are looking to get back in the win column this week, but the betting odds have them as underdogs this week against the Detroit Lions.

The Saints will be back at home for the first time in four weeks, and they’ve lost twice in a row since that home victory against the Bears and are 4-point underdogs for this Sunday against the Lions.

The Lions have had a much more successful regular season than the 5-6 Saints as evidenced by their 8-3 record, but they’ve struggled recently and are coming off a loss against the 5-6 Packers.

Below I’ll analyze each team heading into this week followed by how I see the game going with a final score pick and a best bet.

Reasons to like the Saints

The Saints have the talent to compete in this matchup, but the issue is that some of that talent isn’t healthy at the moment. The good news though is that Derek Carr appears fully healthy this week, and he’ll likely have his top wide receiver available in Chris Olave, who's on track to clear concussion protocol and will be leaned on heavily with Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed unavailable. The Lions defense has been vulnerable through the air as of late, which could be just what the doctor ordered for Carr and a Saints offense that’s still looking to conquer their red zone woes. The Saints defense has a banged up starter in almost every position group, but they appear to match up well against a Lions offense that’s been dependent on the run and has struggled at times on the road.

Reasons to like the Lions

The Lions haven’t played their best football lately after a great start to the season, but they’ve still got lots of talent on both sides of the ball, especially on offense. Jared Goff hasn’t been sharp lately, but a trip to the Caesars Superdome could get him right considering his struggles tend to occur more in outdoor stadiums, and the Lions have arguably the best backfield duo in the NFL right now in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions receiving corps is lacking depth, but No. 1 wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown has been dominant and should keep up his strong play with Saints top corner Marshon Lattimore being out. The Lions defense is still somewhat inexperienced and has struggled the past three weeks, but this is profiles as a get right opportunity considering how inefficient the Saints have been in the red zone.

The bottom line

This matchup could be won or lost in the trenches, as I forgot to mention how strong the Lions offensive line is, and the Saints defensive line hasn’t performed up to its usual standard. If the Saints can win that battle and force Goff into mistakes, then there’s a chance they could pull the outright upset, but I don’t see that happening considering how solid the Lions offensive front has been for most of the year. Carr and the Saints offense should be able to move the ball well at times against the inconsistent Lions defense, but I don’t see them being able to keep up with the Lions enough for me to feel confident in them covering the four-point spread much less winning straight up.

The pick: Lions 27, Saints 17

Betting line: Lions (-4, -205) at Saints (+170), 47 O/U

Best bet: Lions -4 (-110)

Odds from Caesars Sportsbook, official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com