Sam McKewon's Big Ten picks, Week 11

The North Platte Telegraph

10 November 2023

There is not, as far as I know, broad polling data on the public’s confidence in the NCAA or Big Ten Conference. So it’s hard to say how those institutions might stack up against the public’s confidence in certain elected and non-elected branches of government.

But this particular Michigan sign-stealing scandal could be a major inflection point.

One of its staff members, Connor Stalions, orchestrated an elaborate scheme of buying tickets to non-Michigan games, using in-stadium spies to videotape the signals of upcoming opponents and relaying that information to UM’s full-time coaches. He did it, and some private party let the NCAA and news media know last month.

Big Ten coaches and athletic directors, according to national reports, have told league commissioner Tony Petitti they want action — discipline. Stalions already resigned. So the next most logical candidate for punishment is head coach Jim Harbaugh, who has his best team marching over the Big Ten like Sauron’s army.

Michigan’s 10-page response — leaked to Yahoo Sports and posted to X —includes a plea for due process, proof of other schools stealing signs, and the remarkable argument that Harbaugh wouldn’t have suspected Stalions’ novel scheme because there’s a standard way of stealing signs.

With Yahoo’s help — and the power of social media — Michigan has muddled up things. Maybe it works and postpones Petitti’s judgment until after the season. Lawyers, national reporters and social media have successfully neutered the NCAA, after all.

In the meantime, Michigan has its hardest test of the year — Penn State at Beaver Stadium.

Because Fox gets the Big Ten’s biggest games, this one will kick off at noon eastern instead of 8 p.m. Advantage Michigan. The Wolverines already have so many going into the game.

The better quarterback, running backs, receivers and offensive line. The better secondary. And, notably, a chip on their shoulder. Persecution — and you can bet Michigan players feel it — can be a great motivator. How’d 1995 Nebraska handle being the perceived villain of college football? By becoming the most dominant team the sport had ever seen.

UM played a joke schedule in 2023, but the film doesn’t lie. Armed with acquired knowledge of its foes, Michigan has become a machine sentient, a Terminator outscoring opponents 41-7 and allowing just one red zone touchdown all season.

“I think the biggest thing with them is they really have not been challenged,” Penn State James Franklin said at his weekly press conference. “They’ve had really good game control on offense and defense. They’re usually ahead on the scoreboard, for the most part, and they’re usually ahead of the sticks on offense and defense.”

Penn State’s hope is to win a defensive slugfest, one of those 16-13 games where the winner either grabs an early lead or gets a defensive touchdown. PSU ranks third nationally in time of possession at 34 minutes, so third downs become key. Penn State converts them at a 42% rate. Michigan hovers near 56%.

Nothing points to a Penn State win.

So why is UM just a 4½-point favorite? It could be sentimental money on the Penn State side, or it could be a question as to whether Harbaugh coaches in the game. As of Thursday afternoon, there was no word from the league.

Would it matter? Michigan mowed down three non-conference foes in September while Harbaugh hung out at home and ate McDonalds. He was serving a Michigan-imposed suspension for potential NCAA violations that time.

“Nobody wants criticism,” Harbaugh said at his press conference. “That's why I work so hard to do everything from both on and off the field. It's been that way for a long time since I was 22 years old. If the criticism is directed to me and not towards my adolescent kids at home or the players on the football team, then I am OK with it.”

At one point this week, I figured Penn State would be America’s Team, a program with college football fans behind them.

But America likes its outlaws, too. And its moral muddles. And, perhaps, its Michigan Men. America loves winners.

My pick: Michigan 27, Penn State 10

Maryland at Nebraska

Sam's take: Facts are facts and facts are this: Maryland struggles in Big Ten Novembers. Nebraska beat the Terrapins 28-7 in 2016 and 54-7 in 2019. This Maryland squad has a far better quarterback in Taulia Tagovailoa and a better defense. Nebraska’s offense is a bit on the ropes. Still, check the facts.

Sam's pick: Nebraska 20, Maryland 19

Iowa vs. Rutgers

When: Saturday, 2:30 p.m.

Sam's take: The 28½-point over/under line will set a record until the Hawkeyes’ Black Friday game at Nebraska in a few weeks. RU hasn’t beaten a program this good since Greg Schiano’s first stint at the school. After Saturday, the Scarlet Knights will still be searching for that signature win.

Sam's pick: Iowa 12, Rutgers 9

Purdue vs. Minnesota

When: Saturday, 2:30 p.m.

Sam's take: I keep thinking the Boilermakers have one good game in them. Perhaps it comes here, with a bowl opportunity off the table. Perhaps the Gophers, stunned late against Illinois, grab their bowl berth by grinding out a run game.

Sam's pick: Purdue 24, Minnesota 21

Wisconsin vs. Northwestern

When: Saturday, 2:30 p.m.

Sam's take: Is Braelon Allen healthy enough to tote the rock? The line would suggest he’ll do more than participate in warmups, as he did in the loss at Indiana. The running back has become the most important player on the Badgers roster — like most years.

Sam's pick: Wisconsin 24, Northwestern 13

Ohio State vs. Michigan State

When: Saturday, 6:30 p.m.

Sam's take: The spread here seems much too high, given Michigan State’s coverage preferences on defense and Ohio State’s throw-it-to-one-guy pass system. There’s no particular incentive for OSU to show much in this one.

Sam's pick: Ohio State 31 Michigan State 6

Illinois vs. Indiana

Sam's take: The late-season charge by Bret Bielema’s boys to make a bowl continues. A win here puts the Illini in a great spot to close the deal on the final weekend against Northwestern.

Sam's pick: Illinois 23, Indiana 17