San Diego State vs. UConn Predictions, Odds & Picks: Who Will Win National Championship Game?

sportsbookreview.com

02 April 2023

San Diego State vs. UConn Predictions, Odds & Picks: Who Will Win National Championship Game?

The stage is set for Monday's men’s College Basketball National Championship Game. The No. 5-seed San Diego State Aztecs are making their first-ever national championship appearance, while four-seed UConn Huskies are 4-0 in nationalchampionships, all since 1999. Will UConn add a fifth title, or can the underdog Aztecs pull off the upset? Read on for our San Diego State vs. UConn college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

San Diego State (32-6) looks to become the first team fromthe western United States to win a national championship since Arizona did itin 1997. Its 14-point comeback victory against Florida Atlantic was thethird-largest in men’s national semifinal history.

Meanwhile, UConn (30-8) is the first team since Kentucky in 1996 to win itsSweet 16 and Elite Eight games by 20-plus points. According to ESPN Stats & Info, UConn is thesixth team to enter the national championship after winning each tournament gameby double-digits. Four of the previous five won the national title.

Hereis our best San Diego State vs. UConn prediction (odds via BetRivers; pickconfidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

San Diego State vs. UConnodds

History is working against the Aztecs in this matchup. According to ESPN Stats & Info, this was thethird time in the previous 70 years that three teams were making their FinalFour debuts, but none of those teams cut down the nets. Meanwhile, UConn is 4-0in national championships, and the Huskies are 15-0 straight-up and 14-1 against the spread againstnon-conference opponents this year. However, those trends are why UConn will bea heavily backed team on Monday, and we love being on the contrarian side.

Further influencing the general public’s thoughts on this gameis that UConn never trailed in its dominant victory over Miami. At the sametime, San Diego State didn't lead against FAU from the 7:26 mark in the first halfuntil Lamont Butler’s buzzer-beater with no time remaining (the firstbuzzer-beater in a Final Four game when the player's team was trailing before the shot,per Sportsnet Stats).

However,unlike other teams that have wilted when UConn has raced out to a big lead, SanDiego State entered Saturday's action with the third-best record in Division I (7-2)when trailing at halftime, and it has now won six consecutive games when trailingat the half. That speaks to the Aztecs’ composure and experience, as they arethe 21st-most-experienced team and ranked 40th in minutes continuity from ayear ago (UConn ranks 113th and 248th in those categories, respectively).

UConn may not have lost a game outside of the Big East thisyear, but San Diego State is built like a Big East team with its toughness andphysicality, which the Huskies’ last two opponents (Miami and Gonzaga) did nothave. The Aztecs are playing on Monday largely because of their 3-pointdefense, holding opponents to just 25-of-116 (21.6%) from beyond the arc. Theirlength and ability to defend the perimeter will be key against a Huskies teamthat has made nine-plus 3-pointers in each of the first five tournament games.

Miami had a chance to make the game closer against UConn if notfor shooting 8-of-23 at the rim. Though much of the credit goes to the interior defenseof Huskies centers Adama Sanogo and Donovan Clingan, San Diego State’s offenseis not built to attack the rim with as much regularity, as it is more thanhappy to shoot mid-range jumpers (top 15 mid-range shot rate, per ShotQuality).In addition, the Aztecs are 22-0 when allowing less than 65 points, whichphysical teams like Providence, Creighton, and Seton Hall have done to theHuskies in conference play.

Checkout our best March Madnessodds and Wooden Awardodds.

San Diego State vs. UConnbest odds

BetRivers (-115)

Allmajor sportsbooks except for BetRivers offer a point spread of -7.5, but we donot mind paying the slightly extra -115 in juice for anotherhalf-point worth of insurance.

However, given that UConn has gone from -6 to-7.5 point favorites overnight, other sportsbooks will likely get to -8 orhigher if you want to hold out for a better number or a sportsbook to offer the+8 at standard juice (-110).

San Diego State vs. UConnodds analysis

Shortlyafter UConn’s victory over Miami, several sportsbooks like DraftKings opened atHuskies -6. However, within an hour, most had increased to at least -7 after anearly influx of money came in on the favorites. Most have settled at -7.5 as of Monday.

That line movement is unsurprising, consideringUConn is 5-0 ATS in this tournament run and has covered its games by an averageof 15.5 points. However, only 51% of point-spread bets have backed the favorites.

Theconsensus opening total of 132 also did not last long, either, as most sportsbooks havelowered to 131.5 or 131. However, unlike the point spread, that is a case ofreverse line movement, as 75% of all wagers have backed the Over.