Saturday Navan Horse Racing Betting Tips, Prediction, NAP: 21 January
Saturday Navan Betting Tips
12:00 Navan Tips
2m (1m7f170y) Welcome Back To Navan Racecourse Rated Novice Hurdle (4yo+)
Path D’oroux – 1pt Win – 5/1 (Bet365)
singleSelection
My first selection today comes in the opener at Navan and it is Path D’oroux.
Gavin Cromwell gave this horse as his Dark Horse for this season and I popped him in my tracker. In that piece he mentioned that he would start over 2m but he believes his optimum trip is 2m4f, which I’ll come onto later in this write up.
He came out on hurdles debut and beat Itswhatunitesus of Gordon Elliot. Inswhatunitesus went on to beat Embassy Gardens in a Maiden Hurdle next time before beating Carnfunnock in a Novice Hurdle the run after. So that form looked to be working out nicely.
Path D’Oroux was then thrown into the Grade 1 Royal Bond and he saw plenty of market confidence to be sent off 5/1 second favourite which is eye catching to me. He was bang there turning in but the others pulled away from him and his jockey didn’t ask many questions knowing the race was over.
Despite the disappointment in the Royal Bond, Gavin Cromwell again pitched him into Grade 1 company, this time it was in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown taking on none other than odds on Supreme favourite – Facile Vega. He clearly is not on that level, especially over 2m but it was interesting that he reopposed Itswhatunitesus and confirmed the form with him. He also took on Intranet who he faces today and comfortably finished in front of him.
Somehow, despite finishing ahead of Intranet the last day, Path D’oroux is 5/1 here and Intranet is currently 9/4 favourite. Perhaps it is the Mullins/JP factor… You could argue the point that Intranet was more up with the pace and Path D’Oroux was more patiently ridden but he still finished in front of him.
Dropped back into calmer waters, against a favourite he has already beaten and with these conditions, I think the market has this one wrong and I’m happy to side with Path D’oroux here at the prices. By conditions, I mean that Navan has a reputation for being very testing when the ground is soft, particularly because of the stiff, uphill finishing straight of around three and half furlongs. With this horse’s optimum trip being half a mile further, according to his trainer, I think he could relish that stiff finish and be staying on best when others may be throwing the towel in.
1:42 Navan Tips
2m4f Ardmulchan Handicap Hurdle (4yo+ 80-109)
Mrs Paisley – 0.5pt Each Way – 6/1 (Bet365 & Paddy Power, 5 places)
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My second and final selection today is Mrs Paisley in the 2m4f Handicap Hurdle at Navan.
Paisley? As in Paisley Park? Yes. This mare is a half sister to Paisley Park and five other winners including Present Value (2m3f/2m4f hurdle), Henry King (bumper/2m/2m3f hurdle), Va'Vite (bumper/2m-2m5f hurdle) and Mr Grey (2m4f hurdle). So there is nothing wrong with the pedigree! Paisley has ran to a RPR of 172 and the other four mentioned have all hit 126-131, so a good deal better than Mrs Paisley has shown with a peak of 95.
Just because your related to good horses, does not mean you are one and she could simply be a lesser horse than those mentioned. However, she has been switched from Patrick Eugene Turley to Gordon Elliot and with no disrespect intended to Patrick, that is a significant upgrade. Off a lowly mark of 90, you wonder whether Gordon could find some improvement from the mare.
She gets Jordan Gainford in the saddle and there is nothing wrong with that. She also has a lovely racing weight of just 10st 9lb which could play a big factor in these testing conditions at Navan, particularly given the favourite here is shouldering 12st.
Interestingly Gordon mentioned that it would be nice to get a win to her name from a breeding perspective and off this workable mark, I could see them achieving that aim in this open contest. With 5 places available with Bet365 and Paddy Power, I’d be disappointed if she could not hit the top five here if they are trying with her.
