Seahawks playoff chances: How Seattle can earn NFC wild card
The Seahawks, expected to be among the NFL's worst teams in 2022, have been one of the league's most pleasant surprises of the regular season. But Seattle's push for an NFC playoff berth has taken a big hit as the team has gone 1-3 over the past month to from 6-3 to 7-6.
After the Seahawks lost in Munich to the Buccaneers in Week 10, they have dropped two key home games, an overtime thriller to the Raiders in Week 12 and a beatdown to the Panthers in Week 14.
Now Seattle is on a slippery slope toward falling out of the NFL playoff picture. Here's breaking down the Seahawks' chances:
Where do the Seahawks stand in the NFC playoff picture?
The Seahawks started the Panthers game at No. 6 after the Giants (7-5-1) lost to the Eagles, also ahead of the Commanders (7-5-1). But in falling to 7-6, Seattle now is behind New York and Washington, on the outside looking in at the No. 8 position.
The Seahawks are only one game ahead of the red-hot No. 9 Lions (6-7) and two games up on the Packers, Panthers, Falcons (all 5-8). They do get a break by the fact the Giants and Commanders have a rematch in Washington in Week 15, meaning one will likely lose this time.
What playoff tiebreakers are in the Seahawks' favor?
The Seahawks lost to the Falcons at home in Week 3, 11 weeks before experiencing the same fate against the Panthers. They lose both tiebreakers against those NFC South foes, but they also beat the Lions on the road in Week 4 and the Giants at home in Week 8.
Within the division, the Seahawks lost to the 49ers on the road in Week 2 ahead of the teams' rematch in Seattle in Week 15. They did sweep the third-place Cardinals, who can also get to 5-8 with a home win over the Patriots on Monday night.
What games are left on the Seahawks schedule?
The Seahawks have a tough slate remaining. First up is hosting the 49ers, winners of six consecutive games, fueled by a dominant rushing attack ahead of facing a weak Seattle run defense.
The degree of difficulty doesn't change in Week 16, when the Seahawks must travel to the Chiefs. Then comes a home matchup against another AFC playoff hopeful, the defensive-minded Jets. The Seahawks' easiest game by far is at home against the Rams to close the season in Week 18. Going better than 2-2 vs. that schedule will be tricky.
How good are the Seahawks' wild-card chances now?
When considering their schedule and the landscape that includes the Giants, Commanders and Lions, the Seahawks have gone from heavy favorites to make the playoffs to a true tossup in a hurry. They are still capable of getting hot enough again to sneak in at 9-8, but the wild card is a much more feasible path that winning the NFC West.
How can the Seahawks still win the NFC West?
The Seahawks can't win the division if they lose to the 49ers at home to open Week 15. In that case, they would be three games back at 7-7 vs. 10-4 with three games left, but they would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of a San Francisco season sweep.
Seattle need to make up two games on the San Francisco with four left to play. Beating the 49ers would put them one game behind. Should the Seahawks split with the 49ers, they will hope to finish with a better division record.
They are 3-1 in NFC West play. They can finish 5-1 with wins over the 49ers and Rams. The 49ers, however, are 4-0, so it comes down to them losing twice in the division, to the Seahawks first and then at home to the Cardinals in Week 18.
The Seahawks (5-5) are down 2.5 games to the 49ers (7-2) in terms of conference records. That doesn't change anything, because the 49ers have two NFC games beyond the Seahawks, while the Seahawks have only one beyond the 49ers. This reverts things back to the division record tiebreaker, given the Seahawks must beat the 49ers, anyway.
However one looks at it, the Seahawks are longshots to win the division, starting with being significant home underdogs on Thursday vs. the 49ers.
