Selections and Picks to win the 2023 Durban July
2023 Durban July Final Field
Having gone a number of years without a victory, three-year-olds have started to come to the fore in recent runnings of the Durban July. Five of the past 13 renewals have been won by the youngest age group and it's this year's champion three-year-old, See It Again who heads the betting.
Personally, I think that this year's crop of three-year-olds have been treated rather harshly by the handicapper. See It Again (124) has been rated two pounds better than last year's top three-year-old Safe Passage, who was also a dual Group One winner. Dave The King and Without Question have won just one Group Three between them, yet they've been judged 122 and 120-rated horses by the handicapper.
As this is a handicap, weight is all important. Only seven of the past 20 winners have carried more than 55kg to victory, so it certainly pays to side with those listed in the bottom half of the weights.
2023 Durban July Odds
2023 Durban July Draw
History tells you that a wide draw can be difficult to navigate in the Durban July. There's only a short run into the turn over 2200m at Greyville and a low draw can certainly help runners grab a favourable position early in the race.
That being said, recent history shows us that a wide draw is by no means unmanageable. In fact, 11 of the last 15 winners have burst from a double-figure stall. The last three winners have been drawn in stalls 12, 18 and 17 respectively. We even saw Pomodoro score from stall 20 in 2012, so don't let the draw overcloud your judgment.
2023 Durban July Tip 1 - Pacaya
Winchester Mansion has been all the rage in the Durban July betting since his trial victory in the Dolphin Cup. However, if you fancy Winchester Mansion at 9/2, then PACAYA has to represent tremendous value at 9/1 (Now 8/1).
Justin Snaith has clearly been keen to protect Pacaya's handicap mark this term, presumably with the Durban July in mind. Grant van Niekerk's mount has been seen on just three occasions, following a third-place finish on his reappearance with back-to-back victories in good-quality contests.
Pacaya carried bottom-weight to victory in the Listed Jet Master Stakes in February. On his first start at Greyville, Snaith's four-year-old came from off the pace to claim a fairly cosy victory in the World Sports Betting 1900.
Winchester Mansion finished a close second that day when getting two kilos from the winner. The two reoppose on level terms this Saturday and Snaith's decision to keep Pacaya fresh for the Durban July could pay dividends.
2023 Durban July Tip 2 - Son Of Raaj
I mentioned earlier in the article that the three-year-olds had been harshly treated this season. Yet, it's been very hard to keep the younger generation out of the frame in recent seasons.
Considering neither Dave The King nor and Without Question have claimed any high-profile victories, it's strange to see a Classic winner in SON OF RAAJ rated vastly inferior to both and Muzi Yeni's mount represents plenty of each-way value.
Weichong Marwing - who spoke about Son Of Raaj in our Durban July quotes from connections article - watched his star win a maiden here at Greyville in October and went into the SA Derby on the back of an impressive victory in the Derby Trial at Turffontein. Son Of Raaj cruised to victory in that Classic, thrashing another of Saturday's runners, the consistent Billy Bowlegs by over two lengths.
Muzi Yeni rode Son Of Raaj very negatively in the Daily News 2000. Yeni dragged his mount over to the rail from stall eight and held Son Of Raaj up well off the pace. Warwing's three-year-old then didn't have the turn of foot to get involved in the closing stages, crossing the line a well-beaten eighth.
That Group One was run off level weights and to see just seven lengths seperating the whole field shows you that the three-year-olds are fairly tightly matched. Son Of Raaj will be getting plenty of weight from See It Again, Dave The King and Without Question - the top three in the Daily News - and this extended trip will certainly suit the SA Derby winner.
