Shohei Ohtani Contract Would Solidify Cubs as World Series Contenders amid MLB Rumors
It's rare that a managerial move should serve as a mission statement for a team's entire offseason, but the Chicago Cubs seemed to throw down a gauntlet when they hired Craig Counsell.
If Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and owner Tom Ricketts really want to prove they are serious about making the Cubs live up to their status as one of the marquee franchises in MLB, they need to go all-in with a pursuit of Shohei Ohtani.
The Cubs hired Counsell away from the division-rival Milwaukee Brewers by making him the highest-paid manager in Major League Baseball on a five-year deal worth more than $40 million.
Counsell's average salary of $8 million is nearly double that of the highest-paid manager from the 2023 season when the Cleveland Guardians paid Terry Francona $4.5 million.
Given how instrumental Jed Hoyer was in picking David Ross to be their manager three years ago and the expectation after the end of the 2023 season that he would be back, the aggressive pursuit of Counsell suggests things are changing on the north side of Chicago.
Hoyer said he had "no comment" when asked during the GM meetings this week if he would be meeting with Ohtani's representatives, but there's a growing belief around the league that it will happen at some point.
Per The Athletic's Sahadev Sharma, one MLB source indicated the Cubs "will be in on a player widely considered to be the biggest prize in this free-agent class."
USA Today's Bob Nightengale noted "as many as 10 teams" could make legitimate offers to Ohtani, with the Cubs being considered "serious contenders."
There's certainly going to be a lot of competition for the three-time All-Star. The Los Angeles Dodgers are almost universally believed to be the favorite to sign.
In a poll of executives from all 30 teams conducted by MLB.com's Mark Feinsand, the Dodgers received 10 of 14 votes from decision-makers as the eventual landing spot for Ohtani.
The Cubs have every resource available to them that the Dodgers do. They are a national brand with a passionate fan base that shows up to Wrigley Field no matter what. They haven't drawn fewer than 2.5 million fans to home games since 1997, excluding the 2020 and 2021 seasons that were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
If Ricketts is concerned about money, the Cubs have $51.9 million in salary coming off their books from last season. Even factoring in raises for arbitration and pre-arb players in 2024, their payroll is only projected to be $182.5 million right now.
If we use MLB Trade Rumors' prediction of a 12-year, $528 million contract for Ohtani, adding his $44 million average annual salary would put the Cubs' payroll right around $223 million. This is still $14 million below the estimated competitive balance tax threshold for next season.
There's still the long-term question about what Ohtani will be as a pitcher, though he intends to keep doing that when he recovers from elbow surgery.
In the short-term, though, Ohtani proved this season he's capable of being the best hitter in the sport. The 29-year-old led MLB in slugging percentage (.654), led the AL in on-base percentage (.412), homers (44) and total bases. He's almost certainly going to be named AL MVP for the second time in three seasons when the award gets announced next week.
Adding an impact hitter would seem to be of paramount importance to the Cubs. Five of their regulars from last season had a below-average OPS+. Cody Bellinger, their best hitter, is a free agent looking for a lucrative long-term contract.
Ohtani completely changes the dynamic for Chicago's lineup. He would slot in at DH, allowing Christopher Morel to play first base. Morel is a flawed player as a low-contact, big-power hitter, but he's made it work with 42 homers in 767 at-bats over the past two seasons.
The lineup should also improve with top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong poised to start the season in the big leagues. Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara should be arriving in Chicago at some point in 2024.
There's an argument that the Cubs don't need to make a splashy move to win the NL Central. The Brewers could be going into a rebuild, with The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reporting on Thursday they are "open to moving virtually any player" on the roster.
The Cincinnati Reds are improving, but they have a lot of pitching questions right now. The St. Louis Cardinals were a mess last season and are desperately pursuing starting pitching to make a quick turnaround.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are probably at least one year away from being a serious contender in the NL Central.
But there's a huge difference between being the favorite in a weak division and one of the favorites to represent the NL in the World Series. The National League is in an unusual spot right now with two dominant teams in the Dodgers and Atlanta Braves.
The Philadelphia Phillies could be in that category, but they could be in a position where they have to replace Aaron Nola. Even the Dodgers, who have won at least 100 games in each of the past three seasons, have a lot of pitching questions.
The reigning NL champion Arizona Diamondbacks won 84 games and were outscored by 15 runs during the regular season.
Signing Ohtani would almost certainly put the Cubs on equal footing with the Braves and Dodgers in the NL hierarchy to reach the World Series next season.
