Should The Padres Trade Juan Soto?
But What About The Future?
One argument for a Soto swap is planning for the future. Trades for Soto, Musgrove, Hader and others have put a suck on the Padres' farm system over the last few years. But, the cupboards aren't as bare as you'd think. Despite the massive moves, San Diego's farm still ranks seventh in baseball with five top-100 prospects, per Baseball America.
Sure, the Padres could try to retool around young players like Ha-Seong Kim, Fernando Tatis Jr., and those top prospects. But the rest of the San Diego squad is a win-now core. The Padres currently have five players over the age of 30 locked into long-term deals of at least $100 million (Bogaerts, Darvish, Machado, Suarez, Musgrove).
Going all in for 2024 — Soto's final year before free agency — is the best shot this San Diego squad will have to win a World Series. Trading that opportunity for a few prospects that won’t get to the big leagues in time to help the current core isn't worth it.
The Padres rank seventh in early 2024 World Series odds (+1400), showing they've got a real shot to win it all. If '24 doesn't work out, the Padres still have the farm to regroup, but they can't let next year go to waste.
If Padres Do Trade Soto, Look To the AL East
There are no updated Soto trade odds available as of now. But odds as of the 2023 trade deadline slated the Yankees (+240) and Red Sox (+500) as the most likely destinations for a Soto swap. Those two teams still make sense as top destinations, but I like the Orioles (+1200) even better.
The Orioles have plenty of upper-minors prospects that could help the Padres NOW — many of whom are blocked — and a need to take their squad to the next level.
If the Os are willing to part with a package that includes a few of Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo, and some young pitching, maybe the Padres could be willing to part with a year of Soto. It's a steep price, but it's the only situation I could see San Diego actually improving by moving one of the best players in baseball.
