Six Nations betting tips: Match-by-match best bets and analysis for round five

Six Nations tips: Round five matches

2pts Italy (+15) to beat Scotland at 10/11 (Sky Bet, BoyleSports)

1pt Simone Gesi to score a try v Scotland at 5/2 (BetUk, Unibet)

1pt Italy to score first v Scotland at 13/8 (Unibet)

1pt France to score over 37.5 points at 5/6 (Sky Bet)

1pt Damian Penaud to score a try in the first 10 mins at 8/1 (Paddy Power)

1pt France (-10) on the first-half handicap at 10/11 (Sky Bet)

2pts Ireland (-14) to beat England at 10/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

2pts Ireland to score over 31.5 points at 5/6 (Sky Bet)

1pt Bundee Aki Player of the Match at 16/1 (BoyleSports)

Scotland v Italy

• Murrafield, Edinburgh
• Saturday, 1230 GMT
• BBC

After much fanfare, it’s time for the Edinburgh fringe festival.

For Scotland, who kick off the weekend in third place in the table, the connotations are two-fold.

Having kicked off the Six Nations with back-to-back wins for the first time ever, Scotland played rope-and-a-dope with punters only to be left out in the wash again.

In their two biggest Tests, against France and Ireland, they came up short, despite playing well in parts, and they remain as maddeningly inconsistent as ever.

A top-half finish may not be beyond them but second place or better is where they wanted to be with a golden generation of players at their disposal.

So they enter the final weekend out of the title race and the pressure off, which seems to be how they like it.

How else do you explain a win record in the final round of 48 per cent compared to their overall Six Nations average of 32 per cent? Last year’s 26-5 defeat to Ireland in Dublin was the first time that they had been beaten on the final weekend since 2016.

As well as being on the fringes of the Six Nations title race, Scotland are forced into fielding two players on the fringes of the first-choice XV in Ollie Smith and Blair Kinghorn due to injuries to their two most naturally gifted players, Stuart Hogg and Finn Russell.

Whilst Hogg has made the joint-most Six Nations appearances for his country and is their record try-scorer in the competition, his replacement Smith is making his Championship debut after winning a couple of caps against Argentina and Australia last year.

When it comes to Russell, there is no one quite like him and the pressure will be on Blair Kinghorn to stamp his own mark on the team. Scotland have only won two of the six games that Kinghorn has started at 10 and there is a strong body of opinion that he is a better full-back than fly-half.

Even with the changes, Scotland should win and avoid bowing out with a whimper. However, ITALY are more than capable of making the most of their handicap start, especially as it could be a low-scoring game given that both teams aren’t anywhere near as clinical near the opposition line as they need to be to push higher up the standings.

Final round games often throw up some crazy scorelines, think England 55-35 France, inflating the round-five match points average to 49. But over the last 10 years of the Championship, the median number of points in a match is just 43. With rain forecast, this game could be closer to that figure than the half-century mark and our advice would be to take up the 6/4 on offer with BoyleSports for UNDER 48.5 points.

One player who could seize the day, however, and give Italy the finishing ability they crave is new cap, SIMONE GESI. Not many people will know much about Italy’s debutant – for now, but if you think Cheslin Kolbe and Jason Robinson, you’ll have a fair idea of why watchers of U20 rugby are so excited to see him win his first cap.

Blessed with searing pace and the ability to sidestep at full speed, the scrum cap-wearing Zebre winger could be just the spark that the Azzurri need in the absence of World Rugby’s Breakthrough Player of the Year, Ange Capuozzo.

Gesi has a liking for Edinburgh having scored two tries in the Scottish capital in this season’s United Rugby Championship and is a best-priced 5/2 to grab another, albeit across the road at Murrayfield and on a much bigger stage.

Italy made more than enough breaks to beat Wales and with a bit more composure, and a few more calls going their way, they would have done so. Typically they have dominated possession this year and the forwards produced quick ruck ball so the ingredients are there for them to cash in when they get within striking distance.

Scotland didn’t score a single point in the second half against Ireland last week and if that spills over into the start of the Italy game, you’d expect the visitors to take early control of the scoreboard. ITALY HAVE SCORED FIRST in four out of the last five Six Nations encounters and are a bet at 6/4 to do so again.

France v Wales

• Stade de France, Paris
• Saturday, 1445 GMT
• ITV

Each of the last six Championship games between these two sides have been decided by margins of just five points or fewer. But this is one where the trend should be well and truly bucked.

Wales were worryingly exposed in defence in Rome last weekend and against a more clinical side than Italy, they would have been severely punished.

As long as they can compete hard at the breakdown and prevent Wales forcing turnovers – the one area of their game that has stood up well – Les Bleus should have plenty enough ball to wreak havoc and go past 37.5 POINTS.

France showed what they are capable of in destroying England 53-10 at Twickenham and they’ll be determined to sign off on another high with a home World Cup fast approaching on the horizon.

Wales more than doubled their points return for the Championship in defeating Italy 29-17, but they won’t have enough nous in attack to seriously trouble this Shaun Edwards-schooled France defence.

Edwards took more pride in last year’s 13-9 win in Cardiff than any other, and not just because it was against the team he once served. France put on a defensive masterclass that day, keeping Wales try-less in the match and scoreless in the second half as they took another step towards the Grand Slam.

With Jonathan Danty back to drive things in midfield and Wales’ attack not functioning as a unit, there is no reason to suggest Les Bleus’ line won’t remain intact again.

As France haven’t trailed at half-time in Paris since their opening game of the 2018 Championship (v Ireland) and with them scoring nearly two-thirds of their points before the break, France half-time/full-time looks a very solid bet, and that’s reflected by odds of 2/9. The better value lies in backing them at -12 in the FIRST-HALF HANDICAP BETTING.

Whilst predicting a player to score in the first 10 minutes is a bet with the narrowest of windows of opportunity, France do have a tendency to score early. Four of their 16 tries this year have come in this timeframe and DAMIAN PENAUD, as good a bet as any to deliver, is an enticing 8/1.

Penaud dotted down twice in quick succession late on against England, to add to his early try against Ireland, and will gunning to retain his top try-scorer crown from last year.

Ireland v England

• Aviva Stadium, Dublin
• Saturday, 1700 GMT
• ITV

You’ve probably got more chance of not seeing a leprechaun hat on Saturday than England have of winning in Dublin.

Head coach Steve Borthwick and captain Owen Farrell bear the look of people who could bring down the mood in any party but it’s hard to see the visitors having the wherewithal to ruin what is destined to be a triumphant St Patrick’s Day weekend.

Sure, there will be a reaction after last week’s humbling record home defeat at the hands of France, but Ireland are too well-organised in defence to be troubled by an England team that is still discovering itself.

Again, England will look to Manu Tuilagi to provide the thrust but BUNDEE AKI is just as physical and is in better form, as are 90 per cent of the Ireland team. Aki will be well up for this and if he gets the better of his opposite number, it will go a long way towards him being named player of the match at 16/1.

In many ways it is easy to see this game panning out the same way as the 2003 Grand Slam decider – but in reverse.

Even old stager, Johnny Sexton hadn’t started his professional career back then but if you remember, England produced one of their best-ever displays to win 42-6 and go off to the World Cup on a high.

It was tight in the first half that day, England holding a 16-6 advantage at the interval, but the floodgates opened in the second 40 with Martin Johnson’s men running away with it.

England will come out looking to make statement but Ireland’s class in attack will eventually tell. Sometimes it seems obvious what they are going to do with ball in hand but the movement and slickness of their play means stopping them is another matter altogether, especially when up against a defence still reeling from the Twickenham debacle. IRELAND OVER 32.5 POINTS is a shade of odds-against.

Ireland have tended to put points on the board early and then consolidate their lead in the second half. But with the game most likely won by the 50-minute mark, it could end up being the other way around as Ireland look to win the Grand Slam in style. Coral and Ladbrokes are offering 5/6 for the second half to be the highest scoring half and that’s another good option for big-hitters.

Given his injury record in recent times, you’d wager that there would be a better than even chance that Sexton won’t be on the pitch when Jaco Peyper’s final whistle sounds to bring an end to what has been an enthralling tournament. And that is indeed the case.

With the 37-year-old poised to break the Championship point-scoring record, Paddy Power are offering a range of Sexton specials and he is 5/4 to be permanently substituted before the hour-mark. While Ireland won’t limp to victory, it is entirely possible that their talisman will limp off. As off-message as it sounds on what should be a celebratory day, there could be money to be made here.

At slightly shorter, though, let's keep things simple: IRELAND ON THE HANDICAP looks as solid as they come and they should sign-off a perfect campaign in style.

Posted at 1330 GMT on 17/03/23

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