Sky vs Sparks Predictions, Picks, and Odds

Covers

29 August 2023

Sky vs Sparks Predictions, Picks, and Odds

The Los Angeles Sparks continue their postseason push against the Chicago Sky. The spread opened tight but is getting larger as the day moves closer to the tip. We're grabbing LA to win by a relatively comfortable margin tonight.

The Chicago Sky are “California Dreaming” of a spot in the WNBA Playoffs when they visit the Los Angeles Sparks on Tuesday night.

These two teams are battling for a ticket to the postseason, with L.A. currently holding the No. 8 seed and Chicago sitting 1.5 games out of the cutoff in ninth place.

The Sparks have played their way into playoff contention with a strong run in August, winning six straight outings before having that streak snapped with a loss at Connecticut on Sunday. The Sky, on the other hand, have just two victories in their last eight outings — both coming against a bad Seattle side.

I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this key non-conference clash and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Sky at Sparks on August 29.

Sky vs Sparks best odds

Sky vs Sparks picks and predictions

The Sparks’ late-season run is quite impressive considering the bulk of those recent wins have come away from home.

Before this stretch, Los Angeles boasted the second-worst net rating on the road (-10.1) and was a dismal 2-9 straight up as a visitor compared to a more competitive 6-6 SU mark at home.

The return of injured guard Layshia Clarendon provided needed stability to Curt Miller’s rotation the past month and the Sparks seem to be winning no matter the venue — or at least covering the spread.

Los Angeles failed to cover as 6.5-point road underdogs in Connecticut on Sunday, snapping an incredible 10-game ATS windfall that started in late July. The Sparks have a great chance to pick up those profits again with Chicago limping into town.

The Sky are bumbling through the second half of the schedule with a pair of cupcake wins over Seattle as their lone bright spots. Chicago’s offense has sputtered in recent losses and it takes the floor tonight without standout forward Alanna Smith, who averages almost 10 points and seven rebounds a contest.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles has put the clamps on recent foes, improving drastically on defense during its late-season surge. The Sky put up only 78.9 points per road game and shoot less than 43% from the field in foreign venues. The Sparks have checked their last dozen opponents to a mere 76.7 scoring average on 44% success.

The market opened too low on L.A. and we’ve seen a drastic correction with early play on the Sparks pushing this spread as high as -4. My WNBA ratings sets this spread closed to Los Angeles -5 before adjusting for the Sky’s loss of Smith.

There are still some shorter spreads out there, with operators as low as Sparks -3.5.

My best bet: Sparks -3.5 (-120 at PointsBet)

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.

Best WNBA bonuses

Bet $50 and get $250 in bonus bets!

Sky vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis

The point spread for this non-conference contest opened as low as Los Angeles -1.5 but quickly got pushed to as high as L.A. -4 by Tuesday morning. According to Covers Consensus, 67% of early picks are siding with the Sparks and that total could rise.

My WNBA power ratings produced a spread of Los Angeles -4.78, given the Sparks' current form, strength on their home court, and the Sky playing their second straight road game at a late tip-off time (10:30 p.m. ET).

Los Angeles has really made a push for the postseason over the past two weeks, picking up six straight wins before losing at Connecticut on the weekend. While some softer opponents showed up during this stretch, the Sparks were forced to play six of their last eight on the road and dug in for some impressive wins.

Head coach Curt Miller has had to battle players coming in and out all year, with injuries plaguing L.A.’s backcourt, but the team did get guard Clarendon back in late July, and has been playing with pop ever since. The Sparks became one of the hottest bets in the WNBA, covering in 10 straight games going back to July 27 before Sunday’s loss to the Sun.

Miller's minutes have been very starter-centric during this late-season push, with his top five getting the most floor time of any team in the WNBA in August. That’s helped L.A. on the defensive end most, with the team jumping to second overall in defensive rating (95.9) in the past nine games compared to its 100.8 rating before August.

As for Chicago, the team has really been adrift for the past two months ever since head coach and GM James Wade left for an NBA gig. The Sky are 7-12 SU and 9-10 ATS since July 1 and have lost six of their last eight games, with those two wins coming against the hapless Storm.

To make matters worse, starting forward Alanna Smith suffered a concussion in Sunday’s win at Seattle and will not play in Los Angeles tonight. The 6-foot-4 Smith is averaging 9.5 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, leaving a massive hole in the middle for Chicago.

As for tonight’s Over/Under total, the number hit the board at 159.5 points and has since moved to 160.5 at some online markets.

Outside of those meetings with the Storm’s league-low defense, the Sky have had trouble scoring the ball for most of August. Chicago posted scores of 90 and 102 points in those wins over Seattle but cracked 80 points just once in their last six losses, going 4-4 Over/Under in that eight-game span.

Los Angeles has become one of the better Under plays, as its defense tightened up over the past month. The Sparks have stayed below the number in nine of their last 12 outings, holding foes to an average of only 76.7 points on 44% shooting.