South Africa v Wales predictions and rugby union tips: Boks backlash incoming

Lukhanyo Am is amongst the big names to return for South Africa for the series decider

Free rugby tips, best bets and analysis for South Africa v Wales in on Saturday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Action, 4.05pm Saturday

Best bet

South Africa to win by 11 to 20 points
1pt 13-5 Betfair, Paddy Power

Match preview

Wales set off on their tour to South Africa as huge underdogs after their Six Nations campaign ended with a defeat to Italy and they were chalked up as 20-point longshots in the first Test.

That line dropped by five points for the second Test after they went down 32-29 to a last-gasp penalty having led for much of the match, and Wales upset the odds with a 13-12 win - admittedly against an almost completely changed Springbok team and thanks to a last-minute score of their own.

The big guns are back for South Africa this week and bookmakers have stuck with a double-figure line, and the key questions are can the Boks’ returning players pick up where they left off having been sidelined for a fortnight, and can Wales turn it on again after two battling performances?

The Springboks earned plenty of criticism for fielding an almost entirely changed line-up for the second Test, from within as well as overseas. But there's no arguing with this side, which contains 11 of the starting 15 who beat England in the 2019 Rugby World Cup final.

Many of those players were slow into gear in the first Test and the Boks were trailing 18-3 at the break. But they won the second half 29-11, even if the winning points came with the clock well into the red.

A game under their belts and a break last week while the Welsh players were drawn into another energy-sapping arm-wrestle looks a double boost for the Boks, and don't forget this is a side who fought back from 1-0 down in the series against the British & Irish Lions last summer.

South Africa are so often seen at their best when the chips are down - they've been in three Rugby World Cup finals and won them all, without conceding a try.

Wales took their chances well in the first two Tests, as Louis Rees-Zammit scored two opportunistic tries first up at Loftus Versfeld while Josh Adams pounced with a 78th-minute winner last week. But Wales had to defend hard for long stretches of the game and a more ruthless first-choice backline should be too sharp this time.

Handre Pollard is retained at fly-half from that match after Elton Jantjies failed to convince in the first Test, and Leicester-bound Pollard should provide a more measured and controlled game, kicking for territory and keeping up the pressure on the Wales defence. 

To win one match in the series would have been seen as a plus for Wales at the outset - they've done that and narrowly lost another - but this could be the day when the double-figure margin of defeat expected by bookmakers from the start lands on them.

A 12-point handicap looks within their compass but it's hard to see the Boks running away with it, so a win by a margin of 11 to 20 points looks the best bet at a decent price.

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