South Point 400 Picks, Odds & Predictions 10/8/2023

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Las Vegas, NV

We have now moved on to the Round of 8 and another step closer to finding out who the Chase for the Cup champion will be. Previously, the date at Las Vegas Motor Speedway used to be at the beginning of the playoffs, but a few years ago NASCAR moved this race deeper into the Chase. This weekend, Sin City will host the stars of NASCAR as the battle continues and starts to whittle down as Phoenix approaches the championship.

This will be the second time that NASCAR visits the Las Vegas oval in 2023. Luckily for us when trying to determine who might do well in this race, we have a lot of data to work from that will help us in this venture. There are several factors to look into and one of the first ones we should consider are the hot streaks of drivers because drivers might take their streaks, whether good or bad, into Las Vegas. Next, we can take a look at what drivers raced well on similar style ovals this season and finally, we can look at how drivers did on this specific track earlier this season.

When talking about the circuit, Las Vegas Motor Speedway is one of many intermediate ovals. That being said, there is a lot of data to look at when trying to crack the code. When looking at the last 24 races in Vegas, there are some drivers who stand out with their performances. Guys like Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. all have an average finish of around 10 and driver ratings of around 100. William Byron was able to win the race earlier this season and it was his first time doing so at the 1.5-mile tri-oval. He'll be a driver to keep an eye on in addition to Kyle Larson who has been racing well and is the favorite in this race.

Bank of America ROVAL 400 Recap

While we were all keeping an eye on drivers making a run for the championship, AJ Allmendinger had other ideas. He won this race in convincing fashion and held off William Byron when all was said and done. Allmendinger led for a race-high 46 laps which included the final 33. It was his first Cup race win of the season and his first win at the Charlotte road course. Kyle Busch fell just short of the next round, finishing in third place.

NASCAR Playoff Standings

William Byron is still the man at the top of the leaderboard. Martin Truex Jr sits in second place while Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Chris Buescher round out the top-5 drivers. Four drivers will be eliminated after Martinsville on October 30, so things are starting to get tight. The final three drivers in the top 8 are Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney. As we get closer to the end, racing is going to get better and better and we're looking forward to it.

South Point 400 Odds

Kyle Larson - +450
William Byron - +550
Denny Hamlin - +550
Tyler Reddick - +750
Martin Truex Jr. - +750
Christopher Bell - +1000
Ryan Blaney - +1300
Kyle Busch - +1300
Chase Elliott - +1500
Chris Buescher - +1500
Brad Keselowski - +1500
Bubba Wallace - +2000
Ross Chastain - +2200
Ty Gibbs - +2200
Joey Logano - +3000
Alex Bowman - +3500
Kevin Harvick - +4000
Erik Jones - +4500
Daniel Suarez - +8000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - +15000

Intermediate ovals have been a strong point in William Byron's resume. He has three wins this season, which also includes earlier in Vegas. On intermediate ovals, Byron has led 302 laps, has five Top-5 finishes and recently got a win on a similar track just a couple weeks ago in Texas. I like his chances to do it again this weekend.

Tony's Pick: Take William Byron (+500)

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