College Basketball: Ohio Valley Conference

Southeast Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi Predictions, Odds & Picks: Are We in for a Shootout to Kick Off March Madness?

sportsbookreview.com

13 March 2023

Southeast Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi Predictions, Odds & Picks: Are We in for a Shootout to Kick Off March Madness?

The NCAA Tournament kicks off with a First Four matchup between the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks and the Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders. Read on for our Southeast Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

Southeast Missouri State is making its second NCAA Tournament appearance. The Redhawks were a surprise winner of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament, as they went from the No. 5 seed and one of four teams playing on the first day to upset wins over three of the top four seeds, with none of the four victories coming by fewer than seven points.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi doubled down as Southland Conference regular season and tournament champions, and the Islanders enter the NCAA Tournament having won 12 of 13 games. The Islanders are in the “Big Dance” for the second consecutive year after losing to Texas Southern 76-67 in the First Four.

Here is our best Southeast Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi college basketball pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Southeast Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi odds

Southeast Missouri State averages 75.1 possessions per game and plays at the second-fastest pace among all D-I teams. The Redhawks attack the rim in transition with reckless abandon and led the Ohio Valley Conference in free throw rate per field goal attempts (40.9).

Their style of play fits right into Texas A&M Corpus Christi’s weaknesses, as the Islanders ranked ninth in the Southland in free throw rate allowed. In addition, Texas A&M Corpus Christi does not protect the rim well (53.8% 2-point percentage allowed ranked worst among all Southland teams), while Southeast Missouri State shot an OVC-best 54.7% from inside the arc.

Corpus Christi’s guards are lightning-fast and are a nuisance to defend one-on-one. That is a big reason the Islanders ranked as the Southland’s best 3-point shooting team (40.1% in league play) and tops in adjusted offensive efficiency. In addition, if they have the lead late, which oddsmakers project with a four-point spread, they make 80% of their free throws as a team (second in D-I).

This three-star play becomes a four-star play if Southeast Missouri State guard Aquan Smart is once again ruled out. Smart missed the team’s conference championship game with a foot injury, and he's the team’s best perimeter defender, ranking in the top three in the conference in steal percentage.

We often wonder about teams’ nerves when playing in the First Four, as these No. 16 seeds are not accustomed to playing on national television. However, Corpus Christi returns 71.7% of its minutes production from last year (11th-best in D-I), so we especially like its chances of settling into the game quickly.

Southeast Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi best odds

DraftKings (-110)

Over backers have their choice between the slightly better number at DraftKings but paying more in juice, or paying slightly better juice at FanDuel at a half-point higher. Southeast Missouri State is 21-12 to the Over, while Texas A&M Corpus Christi has seen the Over cash in 18 of its 29 games.

Southeast Missouri State vs. Texas A&M Corpus Christi odds analysis

Texas A&M Corpus Christi opened as consensus four-point favorites, and there are sportsbooks on either side of this number. BetMGM and BetRivers are the lowest of any sportsbook at -3.5, while FanDuel is the lone sportsbook as high as -4.5, though they charge bettors only -102 in juice to lay the points. Seventy-two percent of all point spread wagers have backed the favorites.

The consensus 153.5-point Over/Under was 135.5 overnight, and some sportsbooks like Caesars and WynnBet had been as high as 154.5 or 155. However, it appears sharp action may be on the Under so far with how the totals have dropped everywhere, as 57% of the wagers are on the Under.