Southern Miss vs. Troy prediction for college football Week 13

We were served some humble pie last weekend. Rutgers was valiant in its effort to cover as a 20.5-point underdog, but a 14-0 fourth quarter in favor of Penn State ended our hot streak by a half-point.

Luckily, we have one more week to find the ugliest underdog worth betting on the college football slate.

Most Saturdays there are a number of candidates to choose from when it comes to finding an ugly underdog, but this holiday weekend is absolutely chock-full of potential classics with Ohio State vs. Michigan, Texas vs. Texas Tech, Oregon vs. Oregon State, Alabama vs. Auburn and Florida State vs. Florida all carrying huge stakes.

But even a betting card this glorious couldn’t stop us from finding a putrid pooch to back.

The Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles are no strangers to this column.

We tried to get to the window with Southern Miss back in early September when they were getting 31 points against a Florida State team that was in a letdown spot after punishing LSU in front of a massive national audience.

The Seminoles would make me look silly with a 66-13 victory that was every bit as lopsided as the scoreline suggested.

But just because a team burns you once doesn’t mean you can just write them off for good.

Heck, this column has backed UMass on a number of occasions over the past couple of seasons, and the Minutemen have treated us alright.

Plus, this spot is just too good to ignore.

Southern Miss (3-8) will close out its season as a 16.5-point home underdog against Troy (9-2) at M.M. Roberts Stadium in Hattiesburg on Saturday afternoon.

It’s been a disappointing campaign for the Golden Eagles, but they were considered a long shot to contend in the Sun Belt, so it’s not like we’re going to be watching an underwhelming team play out the string.

In fact, I think the opposite will be true.

It will be the Trojans of Troy that will likely be going through the motions Saturday.

Sitting at 9-2 and boasting a 6-1 conference record, Troy has already clinched its spot in the Sun Belt Championship Game, where it will meet either Coastal Carolina or Appalachian State.

Sure, the Trojans could make the case that a 10th regular-season win will land it in a more prestigious bowl game, but what matters the most Saturday for this team is to stay fresh and healthy for what’s to come in December.

As for Southern Miss, this is a stellar opportunity to pull off the biggest victory of the season and send the program into the offseason feeling pretty good about itself with three wins in its last four contests.

Another reason to feel confident about the Golden Eagles’ chances of covering this big spread is that they actually are capable of ripping off big plays on offense.

Frank Gore Jr. leads the way with 1,036 rushing yards, and Southern Miss ranks 53rd in the country in offensive explosiveness.

That’s not too shabby when you’re only asking to keep things respectable against a potentially checked-out opponent.

Here’s hoping they can do just that. Take Southern Miss +16.5.