SportsGrid MLB Model Picks for Saturday, August 5
The dog days of summer are upon us, and MLB action is the only sport to keep us going. As such, we’re breaking down Saturday’s action, highlighting several picks from the SportsGrid projections. We use a star rating to gauge each play’s success probability. These are some of our favorite selections from today’s MLB Game Picks.
The San Francisco Giants remain one of the hottest teams in baseball, but their torrid pace could be halted by an unsuspecting Oakland Athletics squad on Saturday night. The A’s send Paul Blackburn to the mound, looking to improve on a string of successful outings.
Blackburn has been effective at limiting runs over his past two starts. The soft-throwing righty held the defending World Series Champion Houston Astros to just one run across 5.1 innings pitched. Subsequently, he successfully navigated the challenges of Coors Field, limiting the Colorado Rockies to two runs over 6.0 innings.
Oakland doesn’t have to rely exclusively on Blackburn, though. Over their previous ten games, the A’s are slugging .403, above their season-long average of .360. However, there’s a disconnect between production and output, implying the Athletics are progression candidates. Scoring has decreased to 3.5 runs per game despite the increased effectiveness at the dish. We should see more runs from Oakland as metrics balance over the coming games.
Unfortunately, Giants’ probable starter Ross Stripling doesn’t have the wherewithal to contain opposing batters. The 33-year-old ranks in the 10th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 14th percentile in expected ERA. Those metrics tilt the balance further in the Athletics direction.
A pair of southpaws go toe-to-toe in a lackluster National League matchup. Ty Blach leads the Rockies onto the field for a showdown against Steven Matz and the St. Louis Cardinals. Neither team has been exceptional against lefties, lending itself to a low-scoring affair at Busch Stadium.
The Rockies have struggled against left-handed pitchers. They have compiled the sixth-worst OPS and second-most strikeouts against southpaws, dragging their overall metrics down. Likewise, the Cardinals perform worse against lefties, with their OPS dropping thanks to a worse slugging percentage.
Plate woes notwithstanding, both pitchers have looked good recently. Blach hasn’t allowed a run over his last 11.0 innings pitched, striking out six and giving up a paltry nine hits and a walk. Likewise, Matz is 2-0 over his previous three starts, totaling 17.0 innings, 12 hits, and two walks, equalling just one earned run against.
Circumstances favor a low-scoring game, and that’s reflected in our projections. We’re leaning into the pitching strengths and batting woes, expecting this one to stay under the total.
The AL Central has gifted the division to the Minnesota Twins, but Minny has been unwilling to accept the offering. The Twinkies have dropped six of nine, clinging to a division lead by a slim 2.5-game margin. Those issues could be compounded as they host the Arizona Diamondbacks for the second game of a three-game series.
The D-Backs offense has fallen down a crevasse of late, and it’s time for them to begin their ascent. Arizona’s OPS has collapsed to .492 over the past week, with the playoff contenders averaging fewer than two runs per game. That’s a substantial deviation from their regular season averages of .745 and 4.8, making them inevitable progression candidates.
If the Diamondbacks awake from their slumber, there’s not much Minnesota can do to keep pace. The Twins operate one of the most underwhelming offenses in the bigs, ranking in the league’s bottom half in OPS and runs while accumulating the most strikeouts.
Getting the better of Ryne Nelson is no easy feat. The D-Backs starter has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his previous four, giving the visitors a more pronounced edge. Still, those advantages aren’t reflected in the betting line, as Arizona enters this inter-league battle as steep underdogs. We’re betting they start their climb with a big win against the Twins.
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