SportsGrid NHL Model Picks for Saturday, January 20

Saturday is synonymous with hockey. It’s typically the busiest day of the week in the NHL, featuring a bevy of intriguing matchups. That leaves many in-roads for bettors looking for edges in the gambling market. 

To help players get a winning edge, we’re highlighting some of our favorite plays from the SportsGrid NHL Model.

Dallas Stars vs. New Jersey Devils
Devils Moneyline (+122): 5-Star Rating

Coming into this season, expectations were sky-high for the New Jersey Devils. Fresh off their best regular season finish in over ten years and a run to the second round of the playoffs, many expected the young Devils’ nucleus to take another step forward in 2023-24. Although that hasn’t been the case halfway through the year, they can still turn things around before the postseason. New Jersey invites the Dallas Stars to the Prudential Center for an inter-conference clash on Saturday night. 

The Devils’ offense has turned a corner over their recent sample. New Jersey has totaled three or more goals at five-on-five in six of their past eight, inflating their team shooting percentage to 12.2% across that span. Still, they are operating below their expected goals-for total, implying further progression is anticipated. 

That offensive progression can continue against the Stars, who have struggled to prevent scoring over the past few weeks. Since December 21, 2023, Stars goalies have combined for an 89.2% save percentage, getting shelled for three or more goals in seven of those 14 contests. 

The Devils’ improving offense collides with sub-optimal Stars goaltending, tilting the ice in New Jersey’s favor. That advantage is reflected in our projections, rating the Devils’ moneyline as home underdogs as a five-star play. 

Montreal Canadiens vs. Boston Bruins
Under 5.5 (+116): 5-Star Rating

Hockey enthusiasts are treated to an Original Six matchup as the Montreal Canadiens travel for a date with the Boston Bruins. Although the B’s have a pronounced advantage in the betting market, this game might not be as high-scoring as many are anticipating. 

As usual, the Bruins defend their zone better than most other teams in the league. Boston sits in the league’s top half in scoring and high-danger chances allowed per game, holding opponents to an average of 21.5 and 9.0, respectively. Moreover, they’ve tighter that standard more recently, limiting six of their previous ten opponents to eight quality opportunities or fewer.

The B’s defensive trend aligns with a recent spike in unders in Habs’ games. Montreal has stayed below the total in four of its last six, thanks in part to improved defensive structure in their own end. Canadiens netminders have held opponents to one or fewer goals at five-on-five in all but two of those contests, yielding an improved 93.5% save percentage. 

Montreal has been up to the task lately, and we’re expecting that trend to carry into tonight’s Atlantic Division battle with the Bruins. All signs point to this one staying beneath its plus-money total. 

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Vancouver Canucks
Canucks Moneyline (-126): 5-Star Rating

Our final pick is punctuated with an All-Canadian matchup between the Vancouver Canucks and Toronto Maple Leafs. Toronto will be out of their element on the West Coast, taking on the best team in the NHL right now. 

The Canucks are the class of the NHL. They lead the league with 64 points in 45 games, getting off to one of the most dominant starts in recent history. More importantly, that success is validated by their current performances. Vancouver has outplayed its opponents in seven of its past ten, improving their expected goals-for rating to 54.6% over that stretch. 

Unfortunately for Leafs fans, Toronto is headed in the opposite direction. The Maple Leafs have been outplayed in two of four, with a disappointing 48.3% expected goals-for rating. Worse, all but one of those opponents have attempted at least 11 high-danger chances, with an inflated average of 12.0 per game.

The betting price doesn’t accurately reflect the Canucks’ chances of securing victory against the Leafs. The SportsGrid projections give Vancouver a 67.1% chance of winning, far superior to the 55.8% implied probability of the -126 price tag. We rate it as a five-star play.

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