St. John’s is one team sportsbooks don’t want to win the NCAA title

We’re a long ways away from March Madness, but somehow college basketball season is already here. There is far more variance in college basketball than college football, as we saw in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, with 4-seed UConn (80-1 preseason odds) winning it all against 5-seed San Diego State.

And who can forget Florida Atlantic’s improbable run to the Final Four? The Owls return plenty of talent this season and won’t be sneaking up on anyone. Plus, there are always the bluebloods of college basketball like Duke, Kansas and Michigan State, ready for a run at another title.

Top-ranked Kansas (10-1) is the favorite at sportsbooks, and has the most bets (13.8 percent) to win the title at BetMGM. No. 2 Duke (13-1), No. 3 Purdue (14-1), No. 4 Michigan State (16-1) and No. 16 Kentucky (16-1) have the next-best odds.

Of those teams, Michigan State has the most liability at several sportsbooks, along with a few long shots depending on the book.

“St. John’s has been a very popular play here,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at the Borgata in New Jersey, said via text. “Some of that is probably due to our location, but they are the biggest liability for us. We have a little liability on Michigan State and Kansas as well. St. John’s, Michigan State and Duke are the top three teams in terms of bets placed.”

Michigan State had the second-most bets (13.7 percent) at BetMGM sportsbooks, as of Monday morning.

“Duke, UConn, Gonzaga and Marquette being winners as of now is nice,” Seamus Magee, BetMGM trader, said via text. “We’re a little top heavy right now with some of the teams at the top, but the liability isn’t bad right now, especially when most the handle is driven at the beginning of March.”

Michigan State, Arizona and Kansas were the top three liabilities at BetMGM, as of Monday morning. Magee also told me that they were a small loser to St. John’s as well.

Kentucky is another team to keep an eye on, as the Wildcats had the most liability of any team at Twin Spires. The Syracuse Orange (150-1), Florida Atlantic Owls (60-1) and Louisville Cardinals (500-1) had the next-most liability at Twin Spires. Kentucky was the most-bet team at DraftKings Sportsbook as well, with 22 percent of bets and 28 percent of handle.