Stan 'The Fan' Charles: World Series Prediction And Mea Culpa

It’s part of the price you pay in making public predictions. I believe in publicly flogging myself, rather than waiting for the slings and arrows to get tossed my way. Just how bad was it?

I have been doing MLB power rankings for the past 12 regular seasons. This year I doubled down and posted a prediction piece for the playoffs.

In the final regular-season power rankings, I had the Texas Rangers No. 11 and the Arizona Diamondbacks No. 12. If that weren’t bad enough, when I ranked the 12 teams making it to the playoffs on their chances of winning the World Series I flip-flopped the two World Series participants and had Arizona No. 11 and Texas No. 12.

I am not sure if that level of ineptitude immediately gets my prediction license rescinded, but let’s take a look at where I went wrong. For starters, I botched two key starting pitchers. Nathan Eovaldi was on my fantasy baseball team this year, and had he not lost his way for two-plus months after the All-Star Game, I may have been able to cash in for first place money. So how bad was Eovaldi after the break?

Immediately after the break, Eovaldi tossed six shutout innings against the Tampa Bay Rays on July 18. After that, he didn’t step on a big league or minor league mound again for 47 days. Well, how did that go?

In six September starts, Eovaldi had an ERA of 9.30, and a WHIP of 1.92 in 20.1 innings pitched and he gave up seven home runs. He did strike out 21 batters, but he also gave up 13 walks. Opponents slashed .313/.418/.602 against him with an OPS of 1.021. Hardly did Eovaldi look in September like the pitcher who has racked up postseason wins against the Rays, Orioles and two vs. Houston.

That all factored into my pick of the Rangers having the worst chance to be where they are now — just one more series win away from collecting the franchise’s first World Series title.

Eovaldi has pitched 26.0 innings so far in his four postseason starts and given up just seven earned runs and two home runs. He has struck out 28 batters and walked just four.

If you read my short writeup on the D-Backs at No. 11 in my postseason rankings, I pointed out that Arizona was going to start Brandon Pfaadt and questioned how they could get to the playoffs and have him as their Game 1 starter. Without knowing his status as their No. 1 pitching prospect, I alluded to his 3-9 record and 5.72 ERA.

In Pfaadt’s four postseason starts, he has tossed a modest 16.2 IP to an ERA of 2.70, while striking out 22 batters and walking just three. He has allowed just two home runs.

So much for banking on two poor suppositions but with good reason.

Now as the World Series begins, who would want my pick?

The oddsmakers have the Rangers as a -165 favorite and the D-Backs are a +145 underdog.

Both the Rangers and the D-Backs have played in three postseason series, and in not one of those series has either Texas or Arizona been the favorite.

On paper, the Rangers are the better team. But, that’s on paper. The D-Backs have a huge heart. They also have a talented enough pitching staff and pitching coach Brent Strom, who was the Astros’ pitching coach when they won their first World Series in 2017.

Strom and his staff were able to keep a powerful Phillies offense in the ballpark for the most part in the games they won in the NLCS.

I think this has a chance to be a surprisingly entertaining series. It’s not a LOVE either team you pick.

But I don’t see much of a reason to go against the underdog one last time in 2023. If the Rangers are as one-dimensional as the Phillies were, maybe the D-Backs can win their second World Series championship in team history.