Stars-Capitals prediction, odds, pick, how to watch

It is time to continue our NHL odds series with a Dallas Stars-Washington Capitals prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

The Dallas Stars look to rebound from an unsuccessful trip through Florida when they take on the Washington Capitals in the first game of ESPN's Thursday Night doubleheader. It is time to continue our NHL odds series with a Stars-Capitals prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.

The Stars are going through a mini-skid, losing three of their last four games to the Calgary Flames, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Florida Panthers. They are still in second place in the Central division with a 14-7-3 record. An underrated part of the Stars season is their success on the road, as they boast an 8-3-2 record. Veteran Joe Pavelski is leading the team with 24 points in 24 games. The Stars don't have an offensive player who is head and shoulders above the rest of their teammates, as they rely on balanced scoring to succeed. They have nine players with over 15 points, eight on their top three forward lines, and Miro Heiskanen, who leads their defense corp.

The Capitals are another team that has been going through a slump. They had a five-game winning streak through November and looked like a team that may challenge for a playoff spot in the Metropolitan division. However, their recent West Coast road trip saw them drop three of five games, including a disappointing loss to the lowly San Jose Sharks. The Capitals hope that a healthy scratch will get one of their star forwards, Evgeny Kuznetsov, back into the swing of things. Kuznetsov has four goals and five assists through 19 games this season. Kuznetsov's struggles contribute to the Capitals having the 31st-ranked scoring offense in the NHL.

Here are the NHL Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NHL Odds: Stars-Capitals Odds

Dallas Stars: -1.5 (-146) ML (-146)

Washington Capitals: +1.5 (-200) ML (+122)

Over: 5.5 (-134)

Under: 5.5 (+110)

How to Watch Stars vs. Capitals

Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30 PM PT

TV: ESPN

Why The Stars Will Cover The Spread/Win

The Stars are a much better team on paper than the Capitals. Dallas is a legitimate threat to win the Stanley Cup this season, so losing two of their last three games won't sit well in the locker room. Before losing their last three games, the Stars had an 8-1-1 record on the road. They will be motivated to win the final game of the road trip before heading home for an extended period.

The Stars will have Scott Wedgewood in the net on the second game of the back-to-back, and his stats aren't as successful as their starter, Jake Oettinger. Wedgewood has a 3.18 goals-against average and a .911 save percentage in six games this year.

Why The Capitals Will Cover The Spread/Win

Washington has had a much better chance of winning when Charlie Lindgren is in the net. He has a 5-2-0 record with a 2.46 goals-against average and a .928 save percentage. Lindgren has wins over some of the top teams in the league, such as the Los Angeles Kings, Vegas Golden Knights, and New Jersey Devils. Will he be able to add the Stars to the list? Their history in back-to-backs over the past two seasons would support that idea.

The Stars have been struggling over their past five games. They have lost three of their last four and are playing their third game in four nights. Dallas' strength is in their offense, and they have statistically struggled when playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Add in the fact that it's their third game in four nights, and the fatigue factor may be difficult to overcome. Dallas will also be playing their backup goaltender, Scott Wedgewood. Wedgewood has a good win/loss record this season, boasting a 4-1-1 mark. However, his 3.17 goals-against average shows that this is due to the Stars giving him good goal support. How will Wedgewood fair if the Stars struggle on the second night of a back-to-back continue?

Final Stars-Capitals Prediction & Pick

The Capitals' most substantial issues this season have been their scoring and the play of starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper. Kuemper has been slacking lately, allowing ten goals over his last three games. Charlie Lindgren is projected to get the start tonight, and he has been the better goaltender, boasting a 5-2-0 record with a 2.46 goals-against average and a .928 save percentage. Their offense has frustrated fans and coaches alike, ranking 31st with 2.27 goals per game. During their recent slide, the Capitals have only nine goals in six games.

The Stars are among the most efficient offenses this season, ranking seventh in the league with 3.42 goals per game. It will be rare when the total in one of their games is below six. So, why is the pick tonight to take the under 5.5? First, the Capitals will get an enormous boost tonight against the Stars' offense if Lindgren is between the pipes. The second and possibly most important reason is that the Stars have struggled in the past two seasons to score goals in the second half of a back-to-back. They have played 12 back-to-backs in the past two seasons and averaged 2.75 goals in the second half. Taking the under in a game with a 5.5 total is always stressful, as things can happen quickly in hockey. However, the value of plus money is too good to pass up.

Final Stars-Capitals Prediction & Pick: Under 5.5 (+110)