Stars vs Sharks Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

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28 January 2023

Stars vs Sharks Picks, Predictions, and Odds Tonight

Dallas begins a road swing through California in San Jose, where the Sharks are trying to snap a three-game skid. No matter which way you frame it, the Stars are much better — and our NHL picks have more.

In TNT’s nightcap, there is a Western Conference tilt with the Pacific Division’s San Jose Sharks hosting the Central Division’s Dallas Stars. Dallas looks to start its California swing on a high note while San Jose searches for a way to end its three-game losing streak.

Will the Stars take care of business on the road, or can the Sharks pull off the upset on home ice? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Stars vs. Sharks on Wednesday, January 18.

Stars vs Sharks best odds

Stars vs Sharks picks and predictions

The Stars enter this contest in good form, winning seven of their last 11 games. That trend is likely to continue, with goaltender Jake Oettinger projected to start between the pipes for Dallas.

Making a strong case in the Vezina Trophy conversation, Oettinger has been terrific this season. Through 33 appearances between the pipes, he is 20-6-4 with a .926 save percentage (SV%) and 2.21 goals against average (GAA).

Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue, as Oettinger ranks seventh among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. Entering this contest in particularly dominant form, he is 7-1-1 with a .945 SV% and 1.55 GAA over his last nine starts.

This stellar play is likely to continue against San Jose, a team he dominated last time out. In his first start against the Sharks this season, Oettinger stopped 29 of 31 shots for a .935 SV% en route to a decisive 5-2 win.

In front of the Stars’ netminder is a team that is competent on both ends of the ice, ranking in the top half of the league in both expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. While San Jose also ranks nearly identical to Dallas in both of those metrics, the difference in this contest is found in net, as goaltender James Reimer is the confirmed starter for the Sharks.

A tough year for the veteran netminder, Reimer is just 7-13-4 with a .897 SV% and 3.24 GAA through 24 starts. Entering this contest in particularly poor form, he possesses a 0-4-1 record with a .870 SV% and 4.20 GAA over his last five starts.

Based on his metrics, an even tougher second half of the season is in store for Reimer as he ranks third-to-last among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. He was on the losing end of the previous meeting between these two clubs, a result that is likely to occur once again.

My best bet: Stars moneyline (-155 at BetMGM)

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Stars vs Sharks moneyline analysis

Part of the reason that books opened this number generously low for Dallas is that the goaltending situation is not confirmed. Since they are on the first half of a back-to-back, the Stars may save Oettinger for tomorrow’s tilt against the Kings and start backup netminder Scott Wedgewood tonight.

But, even if that is the case, Dallas is still the team to back in this spot. A competent backup, Wedgewood possesses a .905 SV% and 3.19 GAA across 15 appearances this season while sitting around the middle of the pack among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5.

While those are certainly not eye-popping stats, he still outranks Reimer in every statistic and analytic across the board.

Stars vs Sharks Over/Under analysis

Without a confirmed starter for Dallas, I am staying away from the total in this game. If Oettinger goes, I would lean towards the Under, because of how utterly dominant he has been over the last two months.

However, if Wedgewood goes, a higher-scoring game would likely be in store. Either way, the Stars should light the lamp against Reimer, but it is just a matter of how many goals they allow, which would be a different number if the backup starts ahead of Oettinger.