Statistics: Brazil is clear favourite going into FIFA World Cup
The FIFA World Cup starts next Sunday, 20 November. Brazil is the clear favourite to win the tournament. Argentina, the Netherlands, Germany and France also have a good chance of winning. The forecast combines several statistical models for the teams’ playing strengths with information about the team structure and socio-economic factors. The team is made up of researchers from the Universities of Innsbruck, Ghent, Luxembourg and the Technical Universities Dortmund and Munich.
100,000 simulations of the World Cup were carried out. Brazil is the favourite with a 15% chance of winning. Argentina, Netherlands, Germany and France are the other top teams. The 2022 World cup will be played in winter months. The tournament had to be postponed because of high temperatures in Qatar in the summer. It raises questions about the sport's future in this time of winter. Innsbruck model correctly predicted the Euro 2008 final and the 2010 and 2012 World and European champions. This year it will also be used for the second time after the EURO 2021.
The researchers’ calculation is based on four sources of information. It is a machine learning model that combines the different sources and optimises them step by step. The researchers will find out how well the model performs by the evening of 18 December. It can be used for other forecasts in the future. For example, it could provide more accurate weather forecasts.
