Steve Palmer's Ryder Cup 2023 outright predictions & golf betting tips

Racing Post

27 September 2023

Steve Palmer's Ryder Cup 2023 outright predictions & golf betting tips

When to bet on the Ryder Cup?

With the match set to take place between Friday, September 29 and Sunday, October 1, you’ll want to place your Ryder Cup bets well ahead of schedule.

Make sure to place your bets on the 2023 Ryder Cup by 6.35am Friday.

It’s also worth noting that Paddy Power are offering a £40 free bet that you can grab here ahead of the event.

Where can I watch the Ryder Cup?

You can catch all of the action from the 44th Ryder Cup on Sky Sports Golf & Sky Sports Main Event, from 6am Friday.

Steve Palmer’s Ryder Cup 2023 predictions

Europe to win Ryder Cup
4pts 21-20 Hills

Europe to win 15-13
1pt 12-1 bet365

You can bet on Europe to win the Ryder Cup here and get £40 in golf free bets from Paddy Power

Steve Palmer's Ryder Cup preview

The United States have failed to win away from home in the Ryder Cup for 30 years and there is no urge to back that victory drought to end this week at the Marco Simone.

Team USA have drifted to odds-against, but punters backing the visitors are defying history. Home advantage has proved by far the most important factor in this competition and Europe are the value option.

Seven of the last eight Ryder Cup matches have been won by the home side. The United States have won just one of the last nine Ryder Cups staged in Europe. A 15-13 success at The Belfry in 1993 is the last time an American line-up has lifted the Cup outside of their homeland.

European players will enjoy the encouragement and inspiration of having the vast majority of the crowd cheering their every move. In contrast, every mistake and missed putt from the Americans will be greeted with glee, piling pressure on a young side which contains four rookies.

As well as the atmospheric edge, Europe have significantly greater knowledge of the course. The Italian Open has been staged at Marco Simone since 2021, with seven of this week's European team gaining competitive experience there. None of the American side entered those Italian Opens.

Two of the European team have actually won the Italian Open at Marco Simone – Nicolai Hojgaard and Robert MacIntyre. Both of those triumphs came in September conditions and Europe's course form is almost wholly positive, with Tommy Fleetwood finishing runner-up in 2021 and Matt Fitzpatrick losing a playoff in 2022, closely followed Rory McIlroy (fourth) and Tyrrell Hatton (eighth).

The course advantage was cemented for Europe when the entire squad went to Marco Simone the Monday of BMW PGA Championship week for practice. USA captain Zach Johnson could manage to persuade only nine of his 12 players to their pre-Cup scouting trip, with Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Jordan Spieth making excuses to stay home.

Europe get to set the course up exactly as they please, opting to put a premium on driving, with juicy rough lining the fairways. McIlroy explained in an interview with Colt Knost earlier this month how keen Europe are to “get wedges and short-irons out of the Americans' hands”, trying to get the layout to play to Europe's perceived strengths. A team containing McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Jon Rahm and Ludvig Aberg is right to consider driving a trump card.

USA backers have been pointing to the average world rankings of the two teams (12.9 USA, 29.3 Europe), but three of the top four players in the world are European, and four players can sit out each of the first four sessions. The holy trinity of McIlroy, Hovland and Rahm provides such a strong foundation for European success.

Europe are slightly more experienced Ryder Cuppers – a total of 21 previous caps to USA's 17 – and this American team is nowhere near as in form and daunting as the one which cruised to victory in Wisconsin two years ago.

The lowest-ranked player in the USA side in 2021 was Scottie Scheffler (21) and the team's average ranking was 8.9. Steve Stricker was an excellent captain, having already led a successful Presidents Cup team, and everything was in place for a comfortable American success. This time, with the team weakened because of politics and Scheffler enduring a crisis of confidence in his putting, the Yanks provide far less formidable opposition.

Dustin Johnson, the most experienced member of the American team in the last Ryder Cup, won all five of his matches at Whistling Straits. And Bryson DeChambeau also went unbeaten. Both would have made fearsome opponents for Europe in Italy, but both were ignored by Zach Johnson. Ryder Cup colossus Patrick Reed, like DJ and DeChambeau a LIV Golf defector, was also unconsidered by the American Ryder Cup chiefs. Brooks Koepka forced Zach Johnson's hand by winning the US PGA, providing the lone LIV presence in this competition.

There is nobody on the LIV circuit who Europe will be pining for – Sergio Garcia missed the cut in an Asian Tour event a month ago and would add nothing to the side – and Team Europe looks a balanced, comfortable, focused, high-spirited squad. Italian vice-captains – the Molinari brothers – can help get the locals fully engaged in proceedings.

Expect Europe, generally active and in-form in recent weeks, to build a healthy lead going into the singles, by which time the Americans, generally inactive in September, may be adjusting to the challenge. Captain Johnson described his team as “exhausted” (from the journey) on Monday, then said they were still acclimatising on Tuesday. A Sunday comeback from the visitors will probably not be enough to keep the Cup and a 15-13 European success could be in the offing.

Ryder Cup course guide for Marco Simone Golf & Country Club

Course Marco Simone Golf and Country Club
Length 7,268 yards
Par 71 – three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
Field Two teams of 12
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Rory McIlroy (2), Jon Rahm (3), Viktor Hovland (4), Patrick Cantlay (5)
Course records: 72 holes 270 Robert MacIntyre, Matt Fitzpatrick (2022 Italian Open); 18 holes 62 Romain Langasque (2023 Italian Open)
Course winners taking part Nicolai Hojgaard, Robert MacIntyre
When to bet By 6.35am on Friday
When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 6am on Friday
Time difference Italy is one hour ahead of the UK and Ireland
Course type Parkland
Course overview Marco Simone GC has hosted the Italian Open from 2021 onwards, with Adrian Meronk winning the most recent edition in May. The course, designed by Jim Fazio and David Mezzacane, opened in 1991. Team Europe has opted to grow the rough long for the match and a hot summer has made the track firm and fast
Story of 2021 Steve Stricker's USA romped to a 19-9 victory at Whistling Straits, with Dustin Johnson winning all five of his matches
Weather forecast Sunny, warm and calm throughout, with temperatures peaking at 29C
Type of player suited to the challenge Luke Donald and his management team have opted for juicy rough this week, putting a premium on tee-to-green accuracy
Key attribute Accuracy

Here’s the full 2023 Ryder Cup schedule:

Friday 6.35am four foursomes matches; 11.25am four fourballs matches
Saturday 6.35am four foursomes matches; 11.25am four fourballs matches
Sunday 10.35am 12 singles matches

Steve Palmer's Ryder Cup key stat

Seven of the last eight Ryder Cup matches have been won by the home side

Ryder Cup teams

Europe: Luke Donald (captain); Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, Nicolai Hojgaard, Viktor Hovland, Shane Lowry, Robert MacIntyre, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose, Sepp Straka.

USA: Zach Johnson (captain); Sam Burns, Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark, Rickie Fowler, Brian Harman, Max Homa, Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas.

Grab a £40 Paddy Power free bet on the 2023 Ryder Cup

We’ve already mentioned that Paddy Power are offering a £40 free bet to place on all of the golf action at the event.

Here’s where you can follow these simple steps to grab your £40 free bet to place on Steve Palmer’s 2023 Ryder Cup tips… it's fast, secure and straightforward.

Head over to Paddy Power through this link and click the Join button on their homepage
Create your username and password
Make a deposit of £10 or more using a card & place a bet on a sportsbook market with odds of 1-2 or greater
You will be rewarded with £40 of free bet tokens added to your balance

Paddy Power golf Ryder Cup betting sign-up offer: terms and conditions

It's worth taking a few minutes to read through the terms and conditions associated with the new golf betting signup offer before signing up. Doing so will help you get a better grasp of the details of the Ryder Cup free bets and what's expected of you as a new customer.