Stony Brook vs Charleston Predictions, Picks, and Odds

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12 March 2024

Stony Brook vs Charleston Predictions, Picks, and Odds

The Stony Brook Seawolves are on a dream run in the CAA Tournament, but playing a fourth game in as many days will catch up with them as they take on the run-and-gun College of Charleston Cougars, as our college basketball betting picks explain.

An automatic berth into the March Madness oddsis on the line Tuesday night when the CAA’s top-seeded Charleston Cougars take on the seventh-seeded Stony Brook Seawolves. The conference tournament odds have the Cougars favored to win by double-digits.

Stony Brook refuses to go down, as they found a way to overcome poor offense on Monday night and upset Hofstra 63-59. The Seawolves dominated the glass and knocked out the third-seeded Pride behind a late run spurred by Tyler Stephenson-Moore’s 23 points. But they’ll have to win a fourth game in as many days to clinch a stunning tournament appearance.

The Coastal Athletic Association’s top-seeded team in the tournament, College of Charleston, overcame a surprisingly poor offensive showing to beat Towson 61-56 on Monday. They closed out the final three minutes with a 13-1 run to pick up their 11th consecutive win, and are now one victory away from the big dance.

Our college basketball picks and predictions for Stony Brook vs. Charleston on Tuesday, March 12 explain why the clock is about to hit midnight for Stony Brook’s storybook run.

Stony Brook vs Charleston best odds

Stony Brook vs Charleston picks and predictions

Stony Brook had a stretch in the second half where it didn’t make a single basket for more than six minutes vs. Hofstra last night. From the 10:54 mark until 4:37, the Seawolves scored just four points, which all came from the charity stripe.

And after Dean Noll sunk a pair of free throws with 6:51 to go, there was no real offense outside of Stephenson-Moore. He would score seven of their nine points over the next six minutes, helping push them out in front as Stony Brook held Hofstra without a point for nearly five minutes.

Had the Seawolves been playing a faster-paced team, this would have been a big problem. Hofstra ranks 281st in adjusted tempo this season, whereas their opponent Tuesday night is going to look to run them ragged.

Charleston is likely to do just that. The Seawolves needed that slowed-down pace on Monday night as they were coming off two games in two days, including a double-overtime win on Sunday.

Charleston’s not going to afford them that luxury. The Cougars rank 53rd nationally in adjusted tempo and 49th in adjusted offensive efficiency. They also rebound very well, with a 33.7% offensive rebound rate that’s good for 44th in the nation.

Hofstra was very poor offensively on Monday night, but more importantly, it allowed Stony Brook to dominate the glass. That’s an area where Stony Brook isn’t particularly strong, and it allowed them to stay in the game when shots weren’t falling.

Stony Brook looked tired at the offensive end last night, with a lot of standing around and 1-on-1 offense down the stretch. The Seawolves have made an impressive run in this tournament, but I’m anticipating some tired legs tonight.

Their regular-season matchup earlier this season was a track meet, and a repeat will spell the end for the Seawolves. Combine that with the improved defense Charleston is playing of late — over the last 10 games, the Cougars are ranked 66th in defensive efficiency — and I don’t see Stony Brook topping their projected total.

DraftKings is offering the best price for Stony Brook to finish with no more than 70 points. Take their -105 odds for the Stony Brook team total Under.

My best bet: Stony Brook team total Under 70.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Stony Brook vs Charleston same-game parlay

Stony Brook team total Under 70.5

Charleston -9.5

Charleston -3.5 1H

Charleston is a much better all-around team, and its high-tempo offense and solid defense of late are going to be enough to take advantage of Stony Brook’s weaknesses. I anticipate Stony Brook simply wearing down as the game goes on, and Charleston winning comfortably.

To that end, I think we’ll see the Cougars starting to build a lead before halftime. They’ve led seven of their last 10 games by at least five points at halftime, as they often get out to a hot start. Towson’s caused them problems this season, so I’m not worried about their poor shooting last night. They’ll lead by 4+ at halftime.

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Stony Brook vs Charleston spread and Over/Under analysis

Charleston opened as 7-point favorites, but early morning action pushed that number up to -10 for the Cougars. The pre-tournament favorites are getting plenty of public action, and last night’s win ended a streak of five straight wins ATS as they missed covering as -6.5 favorites.

Stony Brook has covered in seven straight games and is 8-1 in its last nine ATS. That includes consecutive outright wins in this tournament as underdogs. However, I don’t see them covering here.

While the spread got larger, the public has gone in the opposite direction for the total. It moved as low as 151.5 in the morning hours after opening as high as 158.5 overnight. This feeds directly into our best bet analysis as well, as the public sees this one being lower-scoring than the first meeting.

The Over is 6-4 in Stony Brook’s last 10 games, and Monday night’s win over Hofstra saw just 122 points scored as neither offense was clicking. But Charleston’s coming off a low-scoring affair as well, the second straight Under and fifth in its last eight games. I loved the Under when it originally opened, but I’d likely lean Over with how much it’s shifted.

Stony Brook vs Charleston betting trend to know

College of Charleston has hit the 1H moneyline in 25 of its last 33 games (+11.35 Units / 10% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Stony Brook vs. Charleston.

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