Sugar Bowl 2024: What are the best prop bets for Texas vs Washington?

The Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies meet in a College Football Playoff semifinal at the 2024 Sugar Bowl with each trying to make their first CFP National Championship game.

The Longhorns are favored to win the game by major sportsbooks, being 4 or 4.5-point favorites with a moneyline sitting around -170 to -190.

However, this game does seem to viewed as a potential toss-up in terms of result, given the Huskies are undefeated this season and have the best passing offense in the country. So if betting on the spread or moneyline seems too risky with two evenly matched teams, there are a lot of interesting prop bets to consider for the Sugar Bowl.

Scoring the first touchdown in the Sugar Bowl could be critical for the Longhorns and Huskies. Texas scored the first touchdown in 11 of its 13 games with Washington getting it 10 of 13 games.

The most common players to score first for the Longhorns are running back Jonathon Brooks and wide receiver Adonai Mitchell, who each did so three times. With Brooks suffering a season-ending injury back in November, Mitchell is left as the most likely to get the first touchdown for the Longhorns.

You can find +1000 odds on FanDuel for Mitchell to score first with another strong option in wide receiver Xavier Worthy at +850 on DraftKings. Another player to consider might be tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders. Despite not catching a game-opening touchdown yet this season, he’s a frequent contributor for the Longhorns and has odds at +1500.

Washington’s most common first scorer is running back Dillon Johnson. He’s scored the opener three times, including the Huskies’ last two games. You can find odds for him to score first at DraftKings at +750. Wide receiver Rome Odunze is the only other Washington player to have scored multiple first touchdowns, his odds sit at +850 on DrafKings.

Tight end Jack Westover is an interesting pick at +2500. He’s got one game-opener and with the Longhorn defense likely focused on Odunze in the early goings, he could find himself in a good position to score.

The Longhorns are also favorites to score first at -145 and Washington at +114.

The Sugar Bowl will have an incredibly exciting quarterback matchup with Texas’ Quinn Ewers and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. commanding the offenses. Ewers has totaled 3,161 yards and 21 touchdowns in 11 games while Penix is the nation’s leading passer with 4,218 yards on the season and 33 touchdowns.

FanDuel has Ewers’ over/under for passing yards at 287.5 and Penix at 309.5 with -114 odds for every outcome. And both quarterback are at 2.5 passing touchdowns, but both are favored to throw under the amount.

Penix has thrown for three-plus touchdowns six times, but the last time was Oct. 28 against Stanford. Ewers has only scored three or more passing touchdowns three times, having just done so in the Big 12 Championship game against Oklahoma State. Washington is more likely to rely on its high-rated passing offense in the game, so taking Penix to score three passing touchdowns at +144 is another interesting choice.

The featured backs in the game are likely to be Washington’s Dillon Johnson and Texas’ CJ Baxter.

The Longhorns were led in rushing this season by Brooks until suffering his season-ending injury. Now the true freshman is leading the way. He’s been a solid contributor all season long but really broke through as the main rusher against Iowa State with 117 yards. FanDuel has Baxter’s rushing total set at 81.5 at -114 either side.

Johnson has paced the rushing game all year for the Huskies, racking up 1,113 yards, including a starring performance in the Pac-12 title game where he went for 152 yards. His rushing total is set at 72.5 by FanDuel at -114 either side.

Despite Johnson’s experience and ability, his prop is fairly low as he’ll be up against an elite rushing defense that’s allowed only four players to rush for over 70 yards in a game.

For Baxter, he’s only rushed for 82-plus yards twice this season. With a matchup against a high-octane offense, the question will be how much Texas will be able to run the ball if the game turns into a shootout?

Both teams have excellent and deep receiving corps that will surely be crucial in the game. Washington has Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan leading the way while Texas has Mitchell, Worthy and Sanders.

The Huskies’ crew have some fairly high totals, but they also have a dynamic passing attack that could see them all hit those marks. Odunze is set at 96.5 receiving yards (which he’s hit nine times this season including his last four games), Polk is at 52.5 (which he’s hit in all but two games this year) and the recently-returned McMillan is set at 76.5 (he had 131 receiving yards in the Pac-12 title game).

The Longhorn receivers have all been solid and part of a deep pick-your-poison kind of passing game. Worthy’s total is set at 72.5 (a mark he’s hit eight times), Mitchell — a CFP veteran — is posted at 60.5 (he’s only hit that total five times despite leading the team in receiving touchdowns) and Sanders is at 42.5 (a total he’s hit in three of the last four weeks).

There’s really no doubt that receivers are going to be heavily featured in this game, but who the standout might be on each team is going to be difficult to pick for certain.