Suns vs Bucks NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

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26 February 2023

Suns vs Bucks NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

The Bucks may have lost Giannis Antetokounmpo for at least another game, but they've been getting along without him fairly well this season. They should be able to cool off the Suns, as our expert NBA picks explain.

The Phoenix Suns (33-28) were the undisputed winners of the trade deadline, landing two-time Finals MVP Kevin Durant in one of the league's biggest trades of recent history. While they await Durant's debut as he recovers from a knee injury, they have also been doing a good amount of winning on the court as well, taking 12 of their last 16 overall.

But they will face a team that has been even better in that regard on Sunday afternoon: the Milwaukee Bucks (42-17).

The Bucks are winners of 13 straight after blowing out the Heat, but lost Giannis Antetokounmpo after he sustained a knee injury in his first game back from a wrist injury. Jrue Holiday helped shoulder the load (as he has done throughout the season), and both the return of Bobby Portis and debut of Jae Crowder helped soften the blow.

Can the Phoenix Suns avenge their 2021 Finals loss, or will the Giannis-less Bucks find a way to extend their win streak to 14 games?

Suns vs Bucks best odds

Suns vs Bucks picks and predictions

For over a month now, it seems as if the Milwaukee Bucks have been unbeatable. Giannis Antentkounmpo and Khris Middleton returned from injury on January 23rd, and the wins have been piling on uninterruptedly since. In the game prior to the All-Star Break, Antentkounmpo suffered a wrist injury that was initially believed to be potentially serious. But he avoided surgery, and to the surprise of almost everyone, he played in the Bucks' first game back on Friday night.

But six minutes into that game against the Heat, Giannis exited with a reported knee injury. As of the time of this writing, the latest update is that the former Finals MVP suffered a quad contusion, and is considered day-to-day. He is not expected to play in Sunday's game, a rematch of the NBA Finals during which the superstar cemented his legacy.

An absence as monumental as Giannis' would spell certain disaster for the vast majority of teams, but the Bucks are more than well-equipped enough to win on Sunday. Jrue Holiday, as he has plenty of times this year, stepped up for Milwaukee and scored a game-high 24 points on 5-of-9 shooting from three, chipping in seven assists and five rebounds while posting zero turnovers.

Holiday has been one of the league's most valuable two-way backcourt players for nearly a decade, and his play this season has emphasized that fact. Since December, Holiday has averaged 20.4 points, 7.1 assists, and 5.4 rebounds while shooting 40.8% from three, all while being arguably the best backcourt defender. His impact is often understated, and he was more than deserving of just his second All-Star nod this past weekend.

Bobby Portis, who was a top Sixth Man of the Year candidate before missing time due to injury, returned on Friday night and contributed 18 points on 7-of-11 shooting while grabbing 11 boards. Jae Crowder, the Bucks' trade deadline acquisition, made his debut by chipping in nine points (2-of-2 from three-point range). Middleton continues to excel in his limited bench role as he works back up to game speed, adding 12 points, five assists, and four rebounds in just 17 minutes.

Even without Giannis, Milwaukee presents a lot of challenges for a Phoenix Suns team that still awaits the debut of Kevin Durant, their superstar trade deadline acquisition. The return of Devin Booker this month has been a massive help on the offensive end, but he is still finding his footing after returning from a two-month hiatus.

His 23.2 ppg this month is a noticeable step down from the 27.1 ppg he was averaging prior to his injury. Booker has shot just 23.3% from three since returning after starting the season at a 37.0% clip. He will undoubtedly find his rhythm in time for the playoffs, but as for Sunday, he may have a smaller impact than needed.

Chris Paul may also see his impact reduced, as he will have the displeasure of being followed around by Holiday. Holiday gave Paul fits after the first two games of their 2021 Finals matchup, with CP3 accumulating a -37 plus-minus in the final four games after going +26 in the first two games (during which the Suns went up 2-0).

With Durant sidelined, Booker still in search of his stroke, and Paul likely to be hounded by Holiday, there isn't enough meat left on the bone for the Suns. The trade for Durant ravaged them of their high-end depth, and without those players at their disposal for Sunday, they should be expected to fall short — much like they did in the 2021 Finals.

My best bet: Bucks -3 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Suns vs Bucks spread analysis

The market opened with Milwaukee as four-point favorites, but overnight betting action saw the Bucks fall to as low as -3.

Phoenix is 32-28-1 against the spread this season, good for a 53.3% cover rate. The Suns have gone an even 15-15 ATS on the road.

They have fared well on just one day of rest, having gone 24-16 (60.0%) in that split — the fifth-best record in the NBA. But they have failed to cover in back-to-back games, and have gone 4-5 ATS in their last nine.

The Bucks are 33-23-1 ATS, and their 58.9% cover rate is the third-best in the league. They have been favored in every game at home, and have gone 19-11 ATS (63.3%) in that situation.

Milwaukee has also fared decently on just one day of rest, having gone 22-18-1 (55.0%). They have fared even better in non-conference games, having gone 14-7-1 (66.7%) in that split — third-best in the league.

They have covered in six of their last seven, and have gone 13-6 ATS when favored by five or fewer points.

Suns vs Bucks Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 224.5, and has soared to as high as 230.5 as of Sunday morning.

Phoenix has gone 31-29-1 to the Under this season (51.7%), but have gone 9-7 to the Over on the road. They are the league's friendliest Under team in non-conference games, having gone 16-8 that way.

They have gone Over the total in back-to-back games, but have gone Under in five of their last eight.

The Bucks are 30-29 to the Under this season (50.9%). At home, however, they have gone 20-10 (66.7%) to the Over, the second-highest rate of Overs in that split.

They have gone Under in six of their last nine overall, going below the total by an average of 10.3 ppg in that span.

Both the Suns and the Bucks are allowing only 111.4 ppg, tied for the fourth-best mark in the association. Milwaukee is second in FG% against (45.2%), while Phoenix is sixth (46.7%).