Suns vs Cavaliers odds, picks, predictions: Bet Phoenix’s first-quarter line
After a 19-point home loss to the Nets, the Cleveland Cavaliers are back in action 24 hours later to host the Suns. While it’s one thing to play on short rest, it’s another to do so when you’re missing some key players.
Chris Fedor of Cleveland.comreports the Cavaliers will likely be without their leading scorer, Donovan Mitchell (28 PPG), for a seventh straight game as he continues to recover from a bone bruise in his left knee.
Cavaliers power forward Evan Mobley (15.6 PPG) is also out with a sprained ankle, which means Cleveland could be without 38% of its scoring production this season.
As a result, we’ve seen an eight-point swing in the spread, with Cleveland now getting 6.5 points after opening as a 1.5-point favorite.
If you haven’t gotten involved in this game, you can’t lay 6.5 points with the Suns when you could have taken +1.5 with the opening number.
However, we can get creative by laying a smaller price with a first-quarter derivative.
While injuries have ravaged the Cavaliers, the Suns are starting to get healthier as Kellan Olson of ArizonaSports.com reports that Devin Booker is now upgraded to probable.
Booker missed four straight games, and Phoenix went 2-2 in his absence. To the Suns’ credit, they were competitive in all four games, which included difficult opponents like the Nuggets, Celtics and Thunder.
Kevin Durant did his best to put the team on his back. He led the team in scoring for three of the games and scored 35 or more points.
The Suns are currently the sixth seed in the Western Conference, and I think they have yet to play their best basketball.
While they’ve been sporadic at times this season, their defense is finally starting to catch up with their offense. According to NBA.com, over the Suns’ last 10 games, they have a 110.2 defensive rating, which is the ninth-best mark in the league during that span.
And if we adjust those numbers to focus solely on the first quarter, the Suns’ defensive rating improves to 104.2—the fifth best mark.
The numbers aren’t particularly good for the Cavaliers on short rest. Our Action Labs database shows they’re 1-3 straight up in this spot and 0-2 when they’re a home dog.
Moreover, if we look at the last three games where both Mobley and Mitchell weren’t available, the Cavaliers ranked 26th with a -8.0 net rating.
And while Phoenix posted a negative rating (-1.5) during that span, it was +17.3 in the first quarter.
With the help of GimmeTheDog.com, we can track how the Cavaliers perform in the first quarter in games without Mitchell and Mobley.
Since Mitchell arrived in Cleveland for the 2022 season, both players have missed eight games together and the Cavaliers were outscored on average by 2.5 points in the first quarter.
The absence of Mobley impacts Cleveland on both ends of the court because his106.7 defensive rating is the best on the team.
It’s Mobley who sometimes has to defend on the wing and it’s particularly telling that the Nets shot 51% (18-of-35) Cleveland’s last game.
Although the Suns aren’t as big a threat as other teams from the perimeter, Grayson Allen’s been on quite a shooting streak with 16 3-pointers in his last three games.
Booker’s return could really give the Suns a boost because they’ll need to pick up as many wins where possible.
Per Tankathon.com, the Suns have the toughest remaining schedule in the league as their opponents have a combined .569 win percentage.
Durant is clearly locked in as he tends to lead by example with his play on the court.
The Suns don’t get enough credit for their offense that’s now up to 11th in efficiency. Per EV Analytics, Cleveland is just 3-7 against the first quarter spread in its last 10 home games and 1-4 in its last five.
The Cavaliers are ripe for the picking here and fading them in the first quarter is an excellent way to attack this matchup.
Pick: Suns 1Q -1.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
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