Suns vs Celtics Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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14 March 2024

Suns vs Celtics Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Phoenix Suns and Boston Celtics clashed just days ago, with the Celtics coming out ahead during their Western Conference road trip. But that was a game played without Devin Booker, arguably the Suns' best player, and Phoenix will be looking to avenge its defeat with all three of its star trio suiting up on Thursday, March 14.

While the Celtics are lapping the league, every game is critical for Phoenix. If the Suns want to avoid the play-in tournament, they’ll need to pull off a few NBA odds upsets to crawl over the morass of other West teams desperate to do the same.

My NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs. Celtics look at how this matchup is different than the one that transpired on Saturday.

Suns vs Celtics odds

Suns vs Celtics predictions

Both the Phoenix Suns and Boston Celtics came into the season with championship or bust expectations, but there is no question surrounding which team is better at full strength.

It’s clearly the Celtics, which is why I picked against Phoenix when they played last weekend. But the Suns weren't at full strength, and Devin Booker returning to the lineup changes the dynamic.

The Suns have shown that they can beat anyone but they have so rarely had the big three of Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal all playing together. Right now, they do.

The Suns’ season-long point differential is a modest +3.4. Compare that to the +10.5 from Suns lineups featuring all of the big three. While comparing the team point differential to a three-man unit is somewhat apples to oranges, it’s just a demonstration that they are dominant when their best players are healthy. Go figure!

Even when all three players aren’t on the floor together, they can keep two of them out there at all times. Opposing teams can’t double-team as effectively, the offensive burden is better distributed, and the Suns' role players have more reasonable shot diets.

The Celtics, by contrast, are going to be without at least Kristaps Porzingis, who is nursing a hamstring injury. Jaylen Brown is also questionable due to a hip issue. Both missed Boston’s previous game against the Utah Jazz.

While the Celtics were fine to cover that game without two tentpole stars, the Suns are a much bigger threat.

While Boston’s place in the playoff hierarchy is all but assured, Phoenix needs every win it can get down the stretch to escape the play-in. I wouldn’t be surprised if Brown sits this game because the Celtics can afford to be cautious with their lead in the standings in a way that Phoenix cannot.

Having Booker back while the Celtics are missing at least one (and quite possibly two) of their five starters is a big swing and one that makes me feel comfortable taking the Suns with the points.

I’m comfortable taking this at +6, but I’m guessing this line could move another half point or so before tip time if you’re inclined to see if you can get a better number.

My best bet: Suns +6 (-110 at bet365)

Suns vs Celtics same-game parlay

Suns +6

Kevin Durant Over 27.5 points

Jusuf Nurkic Over 0.5 blocks

There is a strong argument to be made that Durant is having the most underrated season in the league. KD has carried the Suns for the vast majority of the year, proving more reliable and available than either of his Suns co-stars. He’s already played 58 games, which is more than he's played since his final season with Golden State.

And he’s remained as productive and efficient as ever. Durant is averaging 28.5 points per game on 63.6% true shooting. He’s also shooting 80% at the rim, which is a mark that is practically unheard of for a non-rim running center.

KD stepped up big again in Booker’s most recent absence and has averaged 34.4 points over his last five, including 45 against the Celtics just five days ago. While I expect he won’t post a line that gaudy with Booker back in action, KD is in an incredible rhythm right now and just recently proved this defense can’t bother him.

Jusuf Nurkic has been everything the Suns could have asked for and more. He’s rebounded, screened, and passed the ball with aplomb. What was less expected was his ability as a rim protector. Nurkic hasn’t been the most fleet of foot since his leg injury, but he’s moved well for most of the season defending the Suns backline.

It’s seen him consistently rack up blocks. He’s averaging 1.5 blocks over his last 10 games and had at least one block in every outing. With Porzingis sidelined, Nurkic will creep closer to the paint to act as a secondary shot blocker on drives, so he’s well-positioned to keep that streak going.

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Suns vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis

The Celtics opened as 4.5-point favorites against Phoenix and that’s grown to as much as -6 at some sportsbooks.

I’m bucking with the trends, as recent performance has the Celtics much stronger against the spread than Phoenix. But again, the Suns are a different team when healthy. Opposing teams can play fundamentally sound defense for 23 seconds of every possession but the Suns' elite shot-making can render it all moot.

Phoenix is also 6-5 ATS when playing as the road underdog.

Thursday’s total opened at 230.5 and saw a slight bump to 231.5, which has since been bet down to as low as 226.5 at some sportsbooks.

The Suns offense was shaky without Booker. Over the past two weeks, they’ve bordered on Bottom-10 levels of efficiency. They clearly have Top-5 offensive capability when they can play Booker, Durant, and Beal with Grayson Allen and Nurkic.

Phoenix has put together an impressive defensive stretch and Booker’s return should only bolster them further on that end. While he was criticized for weak defense early in his career, Booker has been a plus defender at shooting guard for several years now.

All told, Phoenix has had the sixth-best defense in the NBA over the past two weeks, just a hair behind the Celtics.

It makes sense why some bettors are hammering the Under, but the Suns offense looks totally different with Booker available, and I don’t feel comfortable with the Under now that it’s been bet down four points.