Super Bowl 57 Betting Guide: Staff best bets, top props, more
The NFL Playoffs are now down to two teams as we begin our final march toward Super Bowl 57.
This year’s game features two of the leading MVP candidates in quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes and is the first time in five years that two #1 seeds will go head-to-head for the title. Each of these teams has won a Super Bowl in the last five years, and this game has the added intrigue of first-time Super Bowl head coach Nick Sirianni of the Eagles coaching against the Chiefs’ Andy Reid, who is also the Eagles’ franchise leader in coaching wins.
The “Big Game” seems to get bigger every year as last year’s game topped the 100-million viewer mark for the first time. Super Bowl Sunday is the country’s biggest day in sports and on TV, so it only follows that it’s also the biggest day in sports betting as well.
Super Bowl 57 Betting Odds
- Moneyline: PHI (-125) KC (+105)
- Spread: Eagles +1.5 (-110)
- Total: 50.5 (-110)
If you are a new or inexperienced bettor and want to check out our guide to all the ways you can bet on the Super Bowl, make sure to check it out here.
Staff Best Bets
UNDER 50.5 total points
A lot of recent trends are pushing us towards the UNDER for this game. For starters, the last four Super Bowls and 11 have the last 18 have gone UNDER, includingthe 2019 Super Bowl between the Rams and Patriots which went under by 39 points.
The odds are even more in favor of the UNDER when the total is above 50 points. In those instances, the UNDER is 9-3 and since the total pushed to that 50 or higher range, that makes the under even more attractive.
Patrick Mahomes, OVER 0.5 interceptions
There are two reasons I like this prop and neither is a knock on Mahomes. First of all, the Eagles’ defense was third in the NFL in turnover rate and 5th in the NFL in interception rate. They also ranked 4th in ball-hawk rate, which is aSports Info Solutions stat that measures the rate at which defenses make a play on the ball on throws 10 yards or more yards downfield.
So the Eagles will play plays on the ball if you take chances against them, and the Chiefs love to take chances. Mahomes is 2nd in the league in average air yards per pass attempt, and the Chiefs are likely going to need him to hit a few big plays to win this game, so they’re not going to hold him back. While he’s limited his interceptions this year, the games where he has shown the most picks are against strong turnover defenses like Buffalo, Denver, and San Francisco.
Finally, Mahomes has thrown two interceptions in each of his previous Super Bowl games, so he’s shown the ability to take unnecessary chances in the Big Game.
WHERE TO BET THIS PROP: DraftKings (-115)
Dallas Goedert (+38.5) receiving yards OVER Travis Kelce
Draftkings Sportsbook has a cool head-to-head bet feature where you can bet on certain players and stats against one another. Here, we can look at the total yardage between both teams’ tight ends. As you can see from the odds, Travis Kelce is a 38.5-yard favorite over Dallas Goedert. I think that’s a mistake.
I expect the Eagles to limit big plays from Kelce since they rank 3rd in the NFL allowing just 10.1 yards per completion. Given their crazy pass rush, they also allowed just 5.8 air yards per pass attempt this year, the fewest in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes’ ankle will also likely not be 100% and he might not be as effective at buying time in the pocket, the Chiefs could work shorter passes to march the ball down the field.
Kelce has also only gone over 100 yards four times this season, averaging 78.7 yards per game. He’s also averaged just 63 yards in his last two games against the Eagles. Let’s say he’s able to get to 70 or even 80 yards in the Super Bowl, that would still mean the Chiefs need to hold Goedert to 31 or 41 yards. I don’t see that happening.
Since I think this game will be close and both teams will be throwing, I expect Goedert to find some success against a Chiefs defense that was 13th in the NFL in yards per game allowed to tight ends and also gave up the fifth-most touchdowns to them with nine total. Goedert’s over/under is set at 48.5, which means Kelce would need to hit 87 yards to beat that. I’m fine taking Goedert’s side in this one.
WHERE TO BET THIS PROP: DraftKings (-115)
A.J. Brown UNDER 5.5 receptions
The Eagles are not a volume passing offense. Even if they are forced to throw a bit more to keep pace with the Chiefs’ offense, this is still an offense that is going to try to run the ball and then spread it around when they do throw. While A.J. Brown is clearly an immense talent, Jalen Hurts will also be targeting DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert.
In fact, DeVonta Smith has really emerged, registering at least eight catches in 11 of his last 13 games with one of the games he fell short coming last week in a game they dominated the 49ers. At the same time, A.J. Brown has been held below six receptions in 14 of his 19 games this season. Feels like a good time to bet the UNDER on this receptions total.
WHERE TO BET THIS PROP: PointsBet (-135)
BEST SUPER BOWL ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER PROP BETS
Anytime touchdown bets can also be a fun bet to cheer for on Super Bowl Sunday. Betting on touchdowns means creating a narrative on how the game will go. Based on most of our early betting articles, we think this game might lean more toward the receiving game, which also aligns with previous games.
At Super Bowl 56, Beckham, Tee Higgins, and Cooper Kupp all scored touchdowns. The previous year, Rob Gronkowski (+225) and Antonio Brown delivered, so taking a chance on pass-catchers seems to be the way to go for Super Bowl 57.
Travis Kelce (-115 at DraftKings)
Jalen Hurts (+110 at FanDuel)
Miles Sanders (+115 at FanDuel)
A.J. Brown (+125 at FanDuel)
Isiah Pacheco (+180 at BetMGM)
Exotic Prop Bets
A final popular way to bet on the Super Bowl is something that is commonly referred to as Exotic Prop Bets, which are bets on things that have nothing to do with the game. While these bets are fun, they can often be harder to find if you want to place a bet, especially as you get more humorous with the type of bet.
We wrote a full article on some of our favorite exotic props for this year’s game, so check that out here.
