Super Bowl 58 predictions, odds: Brock Purdy player props

We're a little more than one week away from kickoff in Super Bowl LVIII between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. Sportsbooks are busy preparing for the single most important Sunday of the year where they will receive millions on wagers on various aspects of the big game.

One of the most popular players to receive prop action will undoubtedly be San Francisco starting quarterback Brock Purdy. The former Mr. Irrelevant is one of the most polarizing figures playing in the contest. Regardless of however people feel about Purdy, it's an undeniable fact that he's reached the pinnacle of the sport in just his second season.

Due to the fact he's almost surely to be one of the most bet players on Super Bowl Sunday, it's worth doing your research on trends to try and predict how he'll perform under the bright lights. We've picked out a few of the most popular player props regarding Purdy and given our takes on them below.

Let's dive into our predictions:

PLAYER PROP PICKS

Brock Purdy UNDER 31.5 pass attempts (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Brock Purdy has tallied 31 and 39 pass attempts in his two playoff games respectively. He's been the focal point of each contest with San Francisco playing from behind both times. There's no predicting whether he'll have to do that again in the Super Bowl. Thus, how can we figure out how to bet this one?

The Kansas City Chiefs have controlled possession for 34 minutes or more in two of their three playoff games, including for 37:30 against the Baltimore Ravens. They've established an identity this season of going on long, methodical offensive drives. Andy Reid will want to do that in Las Vegas, as well, in order to keep the star-studded 49ers offense on the sidelines for as long as possible.

San Francisco could approach the clash against Patrick Mahomes in the same way, so expect each to run the ball a lot. This will result in each quarterback perhaps going under their projected pass attempts total, especially Purdy.

Brock Purdy UNDER 245.5 passing yards (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Another prop, another instance where Purdy has gone over twice in the playoffs thus far. He went for 252 yards against the Packers and 267 yards against the Lions. Why are we fading the 49ers quarterback again? It's simple: Kansas City has one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.

The Chiefs ranked fourth in passing yards allowed in the league this season. Steve Spagnuolo's unit gave up an average of just 181.5 yards per contest, including only 199 yards to Tua Tagovailoa and 186 yards to Josh Allen. Just six opposing quarterbacks went over 245.5 passing yards all season on this stellar secondary.

MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson was the only individual to go over Purdy's projected mark this postseason with 272 yards, but Baltimore played from behind nearly the entire game and Jackson racked up 37 pass attempts. As stated in the previous prop paragraph, I don't believe Purdy comes close to this many attempts, so it'll take a special performance to go for 250+ yards against Kansas City.

Brock Purdy to win Super Bowl MVP (+200 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Perhaps the Brock Purdy prop with the best value comes in the form of Purdy to win Super Bowl LVIII MVP. We as bettors are not often chomping at the bit waiting for books to give us 2/1 odds and call it value. However, when trends support a hunch and there's a plus sign next to it, we take it.

A quarterback has taken home the Super Bowl MVP 32 times in 57 games. Further, it has been given to a gunslinger in 10 of the last 14 Super Bowls, which means that the winning quarterback has an excellent shot to hoist the individual award after the game's conclusion. 

Purdy's 49ers are 2-point favorites as of Thursday, Feb. 1, 2024. I'm sure you can put two and two together here. The second-year signal caller has an excellent shot at winning Super Bowl MVP, so get it at 2/1 for as long as you can.