Super Bowl Betting History: 3 of the last 5 Winners Began Season with Double-Digit Odds

For the first time ever, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are set to meet in the Super Bowl. From comeback winners to long-shot futures cashing in, there is no shortage of betting history for the big game.

This year more than ever, parity reigned supreme in the NFL. Even so, the two best teams all season long still managed to find their way to the Super Bowl. Whether you prefer to call it the “Kelce Bowl” or the “Andy Reid Bowl”, the Super Bowl LVII matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles has all the makings of being a great game.

Of course, no sporting event is more synonymous with betting than the Super Bowl. Over the years, there have been a number of memorable and seemingly improbable outcomes in the NFL’s championship game. 

While we will advise against making wagers on this year’s Super Bowl based solely on betting history, it may at least be worth considering some of the nuggets found in this article from a broad perspective.

Without further ado, here is the betting history to know heading into the 2023 Super Bowl between the Chiefs and Eagles.

Recent Super Bowl winners

As one might expect, betting a team to win it all before the start of the season has afforded a much larger payout than betting that same team before the Super Bowl itself. However, it is interesting to note that six of the last 10 Super Bowl winners were not the favorite going into the game. 

The 2012 Ravens, 2015 Broncos, and 2017 Eagles were all underdogs of +170 or higher in their respective Super Bowl matchups. Despite going into the 2021 season with 12-1 Super Bowl odds, Los Angeles became the largest pregame favorite at -200 odds to win the title.

Long-shot Super Bowl winners

There have been several long-shot Super Bowl winners over the years. Depending on when one bought into a team on the futures market, sometimes the best value has turned up in the middle of the regular season. The following list looks back on some impressive value that has been available on Super Bowl winners over time.

• 1980 Oakland Raiders: +3500 preseason and +1500 entering Wild Card Round
• 1981 San Francisco 49ers: +5000 preseason
• 1999 St. Louis Rams: +15000 preseason
• 2001 New England Patriots: +6000 preseason and +1400 entering AFC Championship
• 2007 New York Giants: +5000 entering Wild Card Round and +1500 entering NFC Championship
• 2010 Green Bay Packers: +2800 entering Week 16
• 2011 New York Giants: +5000 entering Week 14
• 2012 Baltimore Ravens: +3000 entering Week 16
• 2017 Philadelphia Eagles: +4000 preseason and +600 entering NFC Championship
• 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +1800 entering Week 6

Underdog Super Bowl winners

Dating back to 2009, eight of the 13 Super Bowl winners were actually betting underdogs of even-money or higher going into the big game itself. 

• 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+140)
• 2017 Philadelphia Eagles (+170)
• 2015 Denver Broncos (+140)
• 2014 New England Patriots (+100)
• 2013 Seattle Seahawks (+110)
• 2012 Baltimore Ravens (+175)
• 2011 New York Giants (+130)
• 2009 New Orleans Saints (+180)

Comeback Super Bowl winners

The increased availability of live (in-game) wagering in recent years may be worth taking advantage of in the 2023 Super Bowl. After all, there have been several comebacks in this game over the years. 

While live betting hasn’t been around all that long, and thus limits the ability to pin down what these Super Bowl winners were (or might have) been priced at when facing their deficits, one has to believe that the odds would have led to a bigger payout. 

• 2016 New England Patriots: Trailed 28-3 vs. Atlanta Falcons; Won 34-28 in OT
• 2014 New England Patriots: Trailed 24-14 vs. Seattle Seahawks; Won 28-24
• 2009 New Orleans Saints: Trailed 10-0 vs. Indianapolis Colts; Won 31-17
• 1990 New York Giants: Trailed 12-3 vs. Buffalo Bills; Won 20-19
• 1987 Washington: Trailed 10-0 vs. Denver Broncos; Won 42-10

Super Bowl point spread history

The following table looks at the closing point spreads and eventual ATS results for each of the last 10 Super Bowls.

Super Bowl O/U history

The following table looks at the closing game totals and eventual O/U results for each of the last 10 Super Bowls.

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