Super Bowl Betting Strategies 2024: What to Know for Your Big Game Picks
Whether you're betting on the Super Bowl for the first time or looking for better results than last year, our Super Bowl betting strategies will help you get ready for a big payday ahead of the NFL championship game.
Super Bowl 57 will be a hard one to top – but you know that the two teams vying for the 2023-24 NFL title will do their best.
The Chiefs and Eagles were the first pair of No. 1 seeds to match up in the Super Bowl since the Eagles and New England Patriots in 2017. And the two powerhouse franchises delivered a classic, with the Chiefs prevailing 38-35 in one of the best Super Bowls in history.
Looking to strengthen your wagering game ahead of this season's NFL championship? Here are our best Super Bowl betting strategies and tips to help you prepare for The Big Game.
How to bet on Super Bowl odds
As we wait for the Super Bowl 58 combatants to be finalized, let's use last season's game throughout to illustrate how to wager on the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs opened as the immediate Super Bowl 57 favorites but that quickly flipped thanks in large part to early money backing the Eagles, who who closed at consensus 1.5-point favorites through Thursday, Feb. 9.
That means you’re looking at negative odds if you want to bet Philadelphia on the moneyline. Don’t want to choose a side? Aim to predict the style of game we’re going to see by predicting the total points that will be scored — Over or Under the number prescribed by our best Super Bowl betting sites.
Moneyline: Who will win the Super Bowl?
A moneyline bet is a strict prediction of which side will win the game. The Eagles were -125 ahead of Super Bowl 57, meaning a bettor would need to wager $125 to profit $100 on a winning moneyline bet on Philadelphia.
The Chiefs closed at +105 on the moneyline, meaning a bettor would stand to profit $105 on a $100 moneyline bet on Kansas City, if the Chiefs were to pull the upset and win outright (which they did!)
Spread: Who will cover the Super Bowl line?
The Super Bowl 57 spread closed with the Eagles as 1.5-point favorites, meaning Philadelphia would have needed to win by at least two points to cover and cash a winning bet. That made the Chiefs +1.5, meaning they would cover the spread by winning the game or losing by a point.
Kansas City's three-point win converted the spread victory for Chiefs bettors.
Over/Under: How many points will be scored?
Totals list a number and task bettors with deciding whether the combined points scored by both teams in the game will go Over or Under that line. The adage goes that life is too short to bet the Under, but the Over and Under have both cashed 28 times in Super Bowl history.
That said, the total for Super Bowl LVII closed at 51.5 – and these teams blew past that number in what ended up being the third highest-scoring NFL title game in history.
Other popular Super Bowl bets
Bettors can choose Over or Under on individual player totals, on categories including passing yards, receiving yards, rushing yards and whether a player will score an anytime touchdown.
Game props
Game props include a variety of bets pertaining to various game-related outcomes. You can predict the precise margin of victory for either team or you can call your shot on whether the game will reach overtime.
Novelty props
These props are for your friend at the Super Bowl party who wants to be invested in the spectacle of the event without really caring about the on-field action.
The length of the national anthem performance, the color or style of Rihanna’s outfit during the Super Bowl halftime show, the result of the coin toss, and the color of Gatorade poured on the winning head coach all fit under the exotic props umbrella.
Parlay/SGPs
Parlays are for those chasing the long odds of a big payout by combining multiple outcomes into one bet. It’s more difficult to accurately predict multiple outcomes than it is one singular outcome, so the return on investment of a winning ticket is higher.
Same-game parlays (SGPs) are ways to combine various player props or team-related outcomes from the same game into one larger parlay with a higher payout.
Super Bowl betting strategies
Knowing the line movement and following along with price shopping for various markets can give bettors an idea of where the value might be. If you see the total go from 49.5 to 52.5, for instance, it’s worth wondering whether the value might have been sapped from a bet on the Over before you got around to betting it.
Becoming a late adopter and chasing line movement could hurt you in the long run if you’re sacrificing value just to be part of the “popular” pick.
Create a narrative and stick with it
Do your research and settle on what style of game you expect to see in the Super Bowl. There are enough stats and trends out there to form a cogent argument about almost any potential outcome.
Deciding which stuff to trust — and then staying committed to it — is an important practice for a disciplined bettor.
Shop around for markets AND odds
With the growing number of legal options available to the modern sports bettor, you’re doing yourself a disservice if you’re not shopping around for the best combination of a favorable line (spread, total, etc.) at the best Super Bowl prices you can find. Be sure to check out our best Super Bowl betting sites in the process.
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