Super Rugby Pacific mid-term report: Title tips, RWC bolters and ABs under the gun
That said, separating that quintet might be tricky, depending on injuries and what unfolds over the back half of this title race. And the 4 v 5 quarterfinal shapes as a cracker.
Undoubtedly the Chiefs have set the early standard, and they seem to be revelling in Clayton McMillan’s challenge to secure home finals advantage, but the Canes look to be morphing into a pretty complete team, the Crusaders – battling the injury bug – can never be discounted, the Brumbies are the class acts of Australia and the Blues, of course, have more firepower than anyone.
So, as the trans-Tasman competition ticks into the second half of year two, we put some key burning questions to our rugby scribes:
At the halfway point who are your finalists, winner and wooden-spooners?
Marc Hinton: It appears a five-team race for the title between the top four Kiwi sides and the Brumbies, with little between them. But there’s something about the Chiefs in ‘23, part resilience, part brilliance, and you know the Crusaders can find their way to the final blindfolded. From there it could come down to available personnel, but I give the edge to Clayton McMillan’s side if it’s in Hamilton. Moana Pasifika look in a race of their own for the wooden-spoon.
Richard Knowler: Finalists: Chiefs and Crusaders. Winner: Crusaders. Wooden-spoon: Moana Pasifika. It's difficult to snub the Crusaders when selecting a potential victor. An alarming attrition rate has forced them to field inexperienced lineups, and their unconvincing efforts have reflected that. Just wait for the cavalry to return. As long as Richie Mo'unga is fit, it's near impossible to overlook the defending champs. They always surge at the pointy end of the comp.
Paul Cully: Chiefs and Crusaders, with the Crusaders triumphant. They'll get some big players back soon, and it's hard to go past a side that has repeatedly dominated on the biggest stage. That prediction changes if Mo'unga gets injured, but with him at 10 they can win in Hamilton, if needed. Blues and Brumbies are in contention, but the loss of Brett Cameron will hurt the Hurricanes. Moana Pasifika will pick up the spoon – close losses to the Drua and Force were costly.
Underwhelming or overachieving? How do you rate the first half of SRP as an entertainment package?
Hinton: The rugby has been decent enough at times, with the law variations ramping up tempo and ball-in-play time. That’s a plus. But as a competition I’m not sure it hits the mark. The low bar for a quarterfinal spot takes away urgency, there is still a massive trans-Tasman divide with a top-5/bottom-7 feel already to the balance of power and it’s all a little predictable and same-same, with fans not exactly packing stadiums. The Drua’s home games have been brilliant. More of that vibrancy is required across the board.
Knowler: Underwhelming. The Brumbies aside, the Aussie teams are doing SRP a major disservice. We wanted their established sides (or a resuscitated one in the case of the Western Force), to contribute to a vibrant, unpredictable and exciting competition. We haven't got that. Rugby Australia has got to act, and quickly, before it's too late. SRP is paying a heavy price for RA's insistence on fielding five teams.
Cully: Overall, underwhelming. The law innovations have worked but a lot of games have been predictable. The gap between the top five and rest is significant, and there are more competition points separating fifth (Blues) from sixth (Highlanders) than first (Hurricanes) from fifth. That's not the sign of a vibrant competition – the next eight rounds will be spent simply deciding how the top five finish and which three of the battlers join them in the quarters, where they will be heavy underdogs.
Who's been your big Kiwi mover – someone who might have played his way into the ABs equation?
Hinton: His team has been erratic, to say the least, but Blues wing Mark Telea has hit the ground running and has to be the form right wing in the Kiwi game. That strength, gas and ability to slip tackles has made him a regular metre-eater and there’s a consistency about his game now too. I know he ended last year in the All Blacks, but, with Will Jordan’s future uncertain, that black 14 jersey looks his to lose.
Knowler: Hurricanes midfielder Billy Proctor was on fire last year when Wellington won the NPC crown, and little has changed. Proctor is doing everything right in SRP; he's got a decent workrate, carries like an angry bull lining up a ninny in a shopping mall and is high on confidence. It's all there.
Cully: Hurricanes halfback Cam Roigard. He's making a push for the third ABs spot because he offers something different with his size and left boot, though it will be interesting to see what the Canes do when TJ Perenara returns. Aaron Smith is locked in, and Finlay Christie's form is outstanding. Does that create an opportunity for Roigard, or will the All Blacks opt for experience in the crunch?
If you're Ian Foster what positions are becoming your biggest head-scratchers based on SRP form as selection time draws closer?
Hinton: There won’t be too much bothering the ABs coach at this point. His squad won’t change much and it will take something dramatic for someone to play their way in or out. Beauden Barrett’s indifferent start would have been noted, the No 6 race is wide open, starting fullback shapes as a puzzler and McKenzie’s hot form should seal a recall. How about third hooker? Isn’t it time to unleash Asafo Aumua as bench weapon? And third halfback might be tight between Brad Weber and the emerging Roigard. Midfield injuries haven’t helped and can he find room for the red-hot Shaun Stevenson?
Knowler: No 6, left wing and fullback. Foster may still be pondering moving Scott Barrett, one of the best locks in SRP, to blindside. Left wing is also wide open. Leicester Fainga'anuku is better after a slow start but still has plenty to prove, and Caleb Clarke has been inconsistent. And at fullback, on current form, McKenzie or Stevenson would be in the backfield. But loyalty to test centurion Beauden Barrett could test that. Mo'unga has to start at No 10, so Barrett needs to get piping-hot, or risk being frozen out.
Cully: Wing and No 6. The All Blacks invested in Clarke last year, but Fainga'anuku has been the in-form power wing in SRP. That's going to be a close call, but the hard truth is neither are at the level of prime Julian Savea. The blindside position continues to be problematic, with Shannon Frizell relatively quiet, Ethan Blackadder injured again, Akira Ioane still missing and Luke Jacobson more of a utility. Hoskins Sotutu has been ticking a lot of boxes, but as a No 8, so Scott Barrett could be default option again.
Who's your player of the year at the halfway point?
Hinton: I’ve got D-Mac. His team is undefeated, he’s pulling the strings splendidly, and appears to have a new lease of life after the Japan sojourn and temporary national demotion. If the Chiefs are to convert an outstanding first half into a championship finish, they will need the mercurial, smirking Southlander to maintain his brilliant form to the end. Honourable mentions for Fainga’anuku, Stevenson, Sotutu and Proctor who are fronting big time.
Knowler:Stevenson. Seven tries – he's top scorer in the comp – are testament to the lines he runs and his finishing skills. The Chiefs are adhering to a game-plan that suits men who want to use the oval seed and Stevenson, who can find gaps in peak traffic, knows his way to the line.
Cully: Has to be McKenzie. He has owned the 10 jersey at the Chiefs, and that’s allowed them to play consistently good rugby. The Chiefs have other options at first five, but McKenzie's form has allowed Stevenson to do his thing at No 15, where he has the most influence. Possibly for the first time in his career, McKenzie doesn't look like a 10-15 hybrid, but a first five whose impact would be diluted at fullback.
