Survivor Pool Strategy: How To Make The Smartest Picks In 2022
The data-driven pick strategy can nearly triple your expected winnings from survivor pools. Playing like a pro in survivor pool isn't easy, but the player who can avoid irrational biases will win.
At PoolGenius, we have developed a product that customizes survivor pick advice based on the size of the pool and the rules. Since 2017, our subscribers have reported over $3.7 million in survivor pool prizes. Last year, Poolgenius published a 180-page E-book on survivor pools strategy.
The fact that you can only pick a team once per season opens a Pandora's box of strategic complexity. Make a poor decision now and you'll pay for it later.
Half of NFL survivor pool entries have been eliminated by the end of Week 4 every season for the last 10 years.
The odds of winning any given pool are stacked against you. Even skilled players may not realize winnings for years or even decades.
The safest pick in survivor pools has a 1-in-5 chance of losing. The one thing you have control over is the most advantageous pick every week.
Closing Line Value (CLV) is a concept in sports betting. It is the principle that if you consistently make bets at better odds than the closing line, you should win over time.
The survivor pool analog to CLV is Expected Value. EV is the primary risk vs. reward tradeoff at the heart of all survivor pick decisions. In the long run, you should realize profits in survivor pools if you consistently make picks with positive Ex expected value.
You're always better off picking the team with the best chance to win. You're almost always worse off making an unpopular pick.
The least risky teams are often the most popular picks in Survivor pools. EV-driven picking is the biggest differentiator between Pros and Joes in survivor pools and it's not simple to calculate. The top-EV pick offers the best combination of risk and reward.
There's more to EV-driven picking than single-week analysis. You want to maximize EV over the course of the season. The Chargers may be a solid EV pick in Week 3 of 2022, but they may also be strong favorites hosting the Texans. If the EV of picking the Chargers in a future week projects to be even higher, you should consider saving them even if it requires taking a bit more risk in the third week.
There are three data factors to consider when picking a team in Survivor Pool Strategy: Pick popularity, Win odds and Future Value.
Win odds are how likely each team is to win. Future value is an estimate of a team's EV in future weeks.
A survivor pool is a zero-sum game. The expected winnings increase when you survive a week and at least one other opponent gets eliminated. Identifying the picks that stand to benefit you the most requires accurate estimates of pick popularity.
Dallas Cowboys won the Survivor last season. Dallas had similar win odds in both Week 9 and Week 10, but the value proposition for picking the Cowboys was different. Dallas lost to Denver in Week nine, then won in week 10. The team's overall combination of win Odds and pick popularity was more compelling.
In survivor pools, it's crucial to evaluate pick safety in a comparative sense. The real question is how much does my chance of elimination go up if I pick this team, as opposed to picking the safest or most popular team of the week.
Arizona in Week 7 was the most popular survivor pick. Cincinnati in week 8 and Tennessee in weeks 11 were second and third. Arizona won the game. The winner of the season is the winner. The loser is not. It's a relative jackpot for players who avoid Bengals and Titans. They are better than the crowd. If you are not much more risky than others, you can still make a good pick with a boring and obvious pick, but sometimes it makes sense.
A lot of players discount the importance of future value in picking teams. Teams with the most future values tend to project as big favorites in multiple games throughout the season and have high pick popularity in early weeks. Players who overvalue safety and don't understand EV will cash in on the "sure thing" early. Survivor Pool Strategy: How To Make The Smartest Picks In 2022.
Buffalo Bills were favored by a touchdown or more in 10 games last season. They were a double-digit favorite in seven different games. In Week 4, the Bills faced Houston and were the largest Buffalo spread of the season, but 38% of players picked them. Buffalo's EV was 1.14, which was the best on the board in Week4, and it deserves a pick. However, Buffalo would have several future weeks with better EV.
Buffalo leads the way in our survivor future value estimates for 2022. The Bills have the highest expected season win total and are our highest power-rated team. Los Angeles Chargers have their third-highest future values in 2022, but their schedule is front-loaded with their easiest games. The Chargers and Bills are currently the two largest projected favorites in Week 3. Many entries will probably only have riskier options available. It's important to choose the right team for the game. For example, the Bengals (vs. Atlanta) and Raiders ( vs. Houston) are likely to be popular survivor picks in week 7.
Buffalo has the highest expected season win total in the betting markets. The Buffalo Bills have multiple favorable matchups throughout the season. Los Angeles Chargers have the third-highest projected future value in 2022. They have their easiest games in front of them. In Week 3, the Chargers are the largest projected favorite. They are also the most popular pick in several weeks. Many entries will have riskier options available. It's important to choose the right team for the game. For example, in Week 9, Chargers and Bills are currently the two largest favorites.
Survivor Pool Strategy is a tool that helps you to make smart picks in survivor pools. It provides data, algorithms and calculations. There is also a Season Planner and an Optimal Path tool. The product customizes weekly pick recommendations based on a survivor pool’s size and rules.
