Sweden vs United States Predictions & Odds

Covers

05 August 2023

Sweden vs United States Predictions & Odds

It goes without saying that the Americans haven't been at their best during this Women's World Cup run, but can the underdog Swedes send them home earlier than expected? Read our WWC betting picks below to find out.

It’s rare to have two of the top three teams in the world facing off in the first knockout round of the FIFA Women’s World Cup, but that’s exactly what we’ll have on Sunday morning when Sweden plays against the United States in Melbourne.

Ranked third in the world, Sweden dispatched their group, winning all three matches and out-scoring their opponents 9-1 in the process. They also come into this match with the confidence of having toppled the Americans at the 2021 Olympics.

As for the United States, the top-ranked country in the world looked anything but against Portugal and will consider themselves fortunate to go through as the woodwork saved them in the dying moments. With questions being asked of the players and manager by some back home, they’re under immense pressure.

Can the Americans avoid their first exit ever prior to the World Cup semifinals, or will the Blagult make history repeat itself? Find out in our Sweden vs United States free betting picks for Sunday, August 6.

Sweden vs United States odds

Sweden vs United States picks and predictions

As an American fan, it hurts to say this version of the USWNT isn’t playing at their best. Injuries and poor finishing have been a problem since the opening match against Vietnam.

It hurts even more to make a defeat to Sweden — either in regulation or later — the basis of my best bet in this Round of 16 showdown.

The confidence that Sweden takes from defeating the Americans in a major tournament two years ago can’t be overlooked or written off. While some key players — such as Sophia Smith or Emily Fox —weren’t involved in that tournament, it’s the knowledge that the Blagult don’t have anything to fear.

And they’re under no pressure because of it. They’re underdogs in the betting market, and no matter how much the Americans are struggling, the United States will be viewed as the favorites to win nearly every time they step on the pitch.

However, this team simply isn’t the same without their absent players. Everyone will point to captain and defender Becky Sauerbrunn, but there has been a noticeable void in the midfield without Sam Mewis. The loss of forward Mallory Swanson also can’t be overlooked, as it’s caused some front-line selection questions for manager Vlatko Andonovski.

That front line has woefully underperformed. According to Opta, their 3.8 goals below expected are by far the most in the tournament. And the only two goals from forwards came from Smith against Vietnam.

With former great Carli Lloyd publicly calling out the team and saying forward Alex Morgan should be benched, there's a bunch of noise surrounding the squad.

Sweden is dealing with none of that. They’re a well-oiled machine and unlike the United States, they’re not missing their chances. Making things tougher for the Americans is how tall they are.

The Dutch bothered the United States by winning aerial balls all over the pitch, and Sweden will do a better job in that department. And if they get corners, watch out — nobody is within two goals of their 3.3 xGA from corners in this tournament.

It’s hard to believe the Americans are suddenly going to discover the key to their struggles so far, and it’s harder to bet on it happening against a Sweden team that presents such a difficult matchup.

Take Sweden to advance when it’s all said and done, even if it takes extra time or penalties to do so.

My best bet: Sweden to qualify for next round (+126 at FanDuel)

Sweden vs United States same-game parlay

Sweden to qualify (+120)

Stina Blackstenius Over 0.5 shots (-300)

Fridolina Rolfo Over 0.5 shots (-600)

Over 8 corners (-120)

We’ve hit a pair of same-game parlays already this tournament, and we’re looking to make it a third. We’ve found a few solid pieces that should bump up the price. While you can play this along with the best bet at FanDuel at +425, you’ll get the best SGP price playing it at bet365 for +500.

One key player for the Swedish side, if they’re to advance, will be striker Stina Blackstenius. The Arsenal striker isn’t a volume shooter, having attempted just three shots in the group stage across two starts, but she’s converted one of those into a goal, and she’s scored already against the Americans in the 2019 Olympics. I like her to get at least one shot in during the match.

Her teammate Fridolina Rolfo, on the other hand, doesn’t hesitate to fire away. She managed five attempts against Italy and had a shot against South Africa, scoring in both matches. She’s also likely to pop off at least once on Sunday.

Finally, the corners market offers us the final piece to the parlay puzzle. The match that will most resemble this one is the USA-Netherlands match, which saw a total of 12 corners taken with 11 coming from the Americans.

I expect Sweden to be blocking shots whenever they can, as they’ve allowed just eight of the 28 shots they’ve faced to reach their goalkeepers. As such, nine corners should be the floor in this contest.

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.

Sweden vs United States spread and Over/Under analysis

No teams have ever met more in the World Cup than Sweden and the United States, but their seventh match is the first one not in the group stages, and the United States — for all their flaws — are favored to win in regulation.

However, their bench situation isn’t very good, and the suspension of Rose LaVelle due to yellow cards will be a tough one to overcome.

The Americans are getting around +120 to +130 to win within 90 minutes, and are priced at -150 or more to advance — but that number has been coming down as the match approaches.

The draw pays a solid price of +210 and I may be throwing a bit on that. I could see this being another 1-1 stalemate — but unlike the Netherlands vs. USA match, I’m not confident enough to bet that outright.

As for the total, this one’s a tricky play. I’m projecting a 1-1 or 2-1 outcome at the end of 90 minutes, but the public is all over a 1-1 or lower outcome. The Under is priced at -185 or more for the Under 2.5, which makes sense given America’s shooting woes and Sweden’s outstanding defense in the tournament. The Over does present some value, for those who believe we’ll see a third goal.

In their previous four meetings, at least two goals have been scored, but two of those outings — including the 3-0 Swedish win at the Olympics — have featured three or more. That said, the Under is the more likely play but I can’t ever recommend laying that kind of juice. I’m also not confident enough in it to put it in a parlay, so I’d suggest staying away.