Swiatek vs. Sabalenka Madrid Open best bet and odds: Back Sabalenka to cover in women’s final

Tennis fans are in for a treat with an epic women’s final at the Madrid Open.

The pregame narrative: The No. 1 and No. 2 players in the world square off with a Masters 1000 title on the line for the first time since 2014. Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka are meeting in a clay-court final for the second time this season, with the latter looking to avenge a recent loss.

Tennis odds as of 1:56 p.m. on 05/05/2023.

Swiatek vs. Sabalenka Madrid Open best bet

Best Bet: Sabalenka +4.5 games (-106)

These two have had some memorable battles, but when it comes to facing off on clay, Swiatek has dominated.

Swiatek is 3-0 versus Sabalenka on the surface, including a victory at Stuttgart less than two weeks ago. That match, however, had some encouraging moments for the Belarusian tennis player.

After losing the first two head-to-heads on clay 6-2, 6-2 and 6-2, 6-1 in 2022, Sabalenka earned a noticeably better 6-3, 6-4 loss. In fact, Swiatek only broke the Belarusian twice despite breaking her 10 times across their two matches last year.

Both competitors have been spectacular on clay this year, with Swiatek going 9-0 and Sabalenka sporting an 8-1 record. Both have played 11 sets at this tournament, winning 10 each.

These two have faced off four times on surfaces other than clay, and those have yielded some even results as they’ve each won two matches apiece.

While Swiatek is the most well-rounded player in the women’s game by a wide margin, very few (if any) are better servers than Sabalenka. With the Belarusian showing great command of her serve in Madrid, we’re going to pick her to cover this spread.

Key stat: Sabalena ranks top three in aces (176), first serve points percentage (75.2%), service points won percentage (65.4%) and service games won (85.6%) in 2023, according to WTAtennis.com.