Sydney Sixers versus Brisbane Heat preview and best bets

Cricket betting tips: Big Bash final – Sydney Sixers v Brisbane Heat

2pts Nathan McSweeney top Brisbane Heat batsman at 4/1 (Sky Bet)

The 2023/2024 Big Bash final is finally upon us, with Sydney Sixers renewing hostilities with Brisbane Heat at the SCG on Wednesday morning, 8:15am UK time.

It feels like the right final, too. The Heat were beaten by Perth Scorchers in last year’s final and dominated the regular season this time around, topping the league table ahead of the Sixers who finished with a flourish to grab second spot. In two completed matches between the sides this term, it’s honours even.

With the Scorchers suffering injuries and lacking the depth of old, these have been the best two teams throughout and the Sixers will start as slight favourites having beaten the Heat in the Qualifier just a few days ago. The Sixers have pedigree, too, having won the Big Bash three times before.

The obvious starting point is Friday’s qualifier which the Sixers eventually won by 39 runs after mounting a fine comeback with the bat, Moises Henriques benefiting from a couple of dropped catches in the same over to make a priceless 59 and haul his side to what proved to be a winning score of 152-8.

If the Heat held onto their chances in the field, they will reason they would’ve won that match and not needed Josh Brown’s spectacular 140 (from just 57 balls) which floored Adelaide Strikers in the Challenger on Monday to put them into the final.

Heat bowling the best in the Big Bash

That’s probably true, and their excellent bowling attack is arguably the best in the competition. Spencer Johnson claimed three more big wickets against the Strikers to go with his brace against the Sixers in the match before, and he forms a fine seam attack with Michael Neser, Xavier Bartlett and Paul Walter. Matt Kuhnemann and Mitch Swepson provide the spin.

The Heat have yet to concede 170 so far during an excellent campaign, and I’m not sure I see that changing on Wednesday, with the Sixers now missing James Vince and Tom Curran from earlier in the season.

With the ball, the Sixers are as miserly and canny as ever, and they have excellent balance, too. But this attack doesn't quite have as many high-class options as the Heat can boast, and the men in green will be hopeful this is where the Big Bash is won.

The big issue for last season’s runners-up is the batting. Colin Munro and Sam Billings have departed for the ILT20 and left a huge void, and two poorly managed run chases, against the Scorchers in their final league match and then against the Sixers, laid bare their frailties.

Brown’s innings of a lifetime on Monday probably papered over the cracks a little, and his overall profile would suggest he’s no good thing to back it up. Australia international Matt Renshaw has been woefully short of runs or intent in recent games to add another concern to the list.

McSweeney the best bet for the final

However, an assured 33 from NATHAN MCSWEENEY was another big positive from Monday and he appeals as the safest bet to top-score for the Heat.

McSweeney won this market in last year’s final against the Scorchers, showing all the poise and deftness of touch that has since put him firmly in the international picture for Australia, and it was nice to see him find form again ahead of the final having looked a little out of sorts of late.

A marginal LBW call ended his stay in that match, but looking ahead to Wednesday and we can expect McSweeney to sit in again, letting the likes of Brown, Renshaw and Max Bryant bat around him. With Jimmy Peirson moved down the order against the Strikers, McSweeney, who is now captain, will know his job is to bat deep into the innings.

Brown is sure to prove popular, but his season has been littered with starts and quick cameos, less the match-winning epic he produced on Monday and that he might need two days later. Furthermore, he only managed a laboured 15 against the Sixers in the Qualifier, and I fear the likes of Sean Abbott and Steve O’Keefe might just prove too wise for him again.

For those now wanting to hedge their bets, laying the Heat in running at 1.8 (4/5) and 1.67 (just above 4/6) looks the best way to go. The Heat will likely start as 6/5 outsiders of two, but the Sixers rarely win easy and often trade much bigger in-play. To demonstrate that point, their recent victory over struggling Sydney Thunders saw the Sixers touch 8.2 on the exchanges before they ran out convincing winners.

In order for the Heat to win, it would seem that they will need another piece of individual piece of brilliance with the bat, be it from Brown, Bryant or indeed McSweeney. The latter just appears most likely to do that at this stage and it’s worth remembering that he struck a stylish 84 against the Sixers last term.

Sixers strength in depth makes them favourites

The Sixers' own batting has more bases covered, if not able to match the potential of a destructive Brown, or a classy McSweeney who will likely be playing Test cricket in the next 18 months.

Daniel Hughes has been a reliable operator at the top of the order, Jordan Silk a safe pair of hands at number five, and I was impressed with Jack Edwards when he was promoted to open the innings in the Qualifier. There was a little bit of Shane Watson about his batting, and that’s no bad thing when you consider the white-ball career the latter enjoyed.

Edwards was considered at 6/1 for top Sixers batsman, but so too was Hughes, and with Henriques in the runs again, that market suddenly has a competitive feel to it.

I’ll stick with McSweeney, a young player I firmly believe is going right to the very top. For those of us clutching outright betting slips on the Heat, now would be a good time for McSweeney to prove it.

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.