Ten bold Oilers predictions from Connor McDavid’s goal total to a Stanley Cup triumph

The Athletic

01 January 0001

Ten bold Oilers predictions from Connor McDavid’s goal total to a Stanley Cup triumph

The start of the 2023-24 season is just days away for the Edmonton Oilers, and it’s a big one.

Expectations haven’t been this high since Wayne Gretzky patrolled the ice. Nothing short of a Stanley Cup is acceptable here.

It’ll take some massive individual and team accomplishments to get them there. Here are some things that could come to fruition, along with some potential roster outcomes, too.

1. McDavid will score 70 goals

What’s six more goals for someone of Connor McDavid’s calibre, right?

I underestimated McDavid before the start of last season, predicting he’d score 50 for the first time in his career. He got to 64. It feels like he hasn’t peaked in this capacity just yet.

Hitting the 70-goal mark is a high bar. No one has done it since 1992-93 when Alexander Mogilny and Teemu Selanne both netted 76. It’s been accomplished just 14 times in NHL history.

McDavid scored on a career-high 18.2 percent of his shots last season. That normally indicates regression is coming, but there’s something else to consider. McDavid also unleashed the puck more than ever before, blasting a personal-best 352 pucks on net. His shot has improved and he’s not afraid to use it.

Plus, that Oilers power play … chef’s kiss.

This will be McDavid’s best chance to score 70 goals. I say he does it.

2. Draisaitl will score 60 goals

A 70-goal scorer and 60-goal scorer on the same team? I know what you’re thinking. No chance.

Well, Leon Draisaitl has reached or surpassed the half-century mark three times in his career. It doesn’t seem like he’s plateaued. Like McDavid, this could be his best to net 60. I say he does it, too.

3. Bouchard will finish top three in scoring among defencemen

If you think back to the playoffs a few months ago, maybe this isn’t such a bold prediction.

Evan Bouchard led all blueliners in postseason offence with 17 points in just 12 games. Much of that was the strength of manning the point on the power play where all but two of his points came.

That’s just it, though. Bouchard is going to be on that top unit all season now that Tyson Barrie is gone. The Oilers probably aren’t going to score on 32.4 percent of their man advantages again — that was an NHL record after all — but the drop shouldn’t be too precipitous.

It’s not like Bouchard simply dines out on the power play, either. In the 21 games he played with Mattias Ekholm, Bouchard had 11 points at five-on-five. He’s going to get a full season of top-four ice time, which means regularly playing with elite offensive forwards.

Bouchard should pile up the points this season.

4. The Oilers will acquire a top-four-calibre blueliner by the trade deadline

It was so apparent how Ekholm changed the Oilers after he arrived from Nashville last season. Sure, the Oilers had a weak schedule down the stretch, but they just looked like a different team. His presence gave the Oilers a legitimate top-four defence and provided Bouchard with the perfect partner.

Look for the Oilers to make a similar move in the new year.

The Oilers enter the season so pressed against the salary cap that they’re going to have to carry just 21 players. However, not being in LTIR — at least for now — allows them to accrue cap space. As things stand right now, they project to roughly have $1.3 million in extra room by the deadline.

The Oilers should be well positioned to take on a player with a notable cap hit.

They’ll have to clear some more money, and Warren Foegele, Cody Ceci and Brett Kulak are the obvious candidates there. They’ll have to toss in futures like a first-round pick and a prospect, too. That’s the price of doing business. It’s winning time for the Oilers.

After seeing what Ekholm did last season, and having a need to improve the defence, here’s betting they make a splash again.

5. Broberg won’t be traded

If, in fact, the Oilers are going to upgrade their defence, Philip Broberg would theoretically be very susceptible to a trade. After all, with the way the Oilers plan to run their defence, the player they’d be acquiring would almost certainly be taking his job next to Ekholm or at least result in a rejigging of the pairings.

I predict they go another route, and there are a few reasons for that.

Broberg was Ken Holland’s first draft pick as GM of this organization. He’s a player that Holland has never wavered from. The Oilers will need to depart with future assets to make a sizable deal, but Broberg has always been at the bottom of that list of options. It’ll take a lot to change that.

As with the Ekholm-Barrie swap last season, the Oilers will have to not only clear out a blueliner to improve on defence, but that player will likely need a notable cap hit next to his name. Broberg doesn’t fit the bill there.

Finally, at 22, Broberg hasn’t peaked yet. Getting more time with Ekholm could be just the jolt he needs. Even if he’s bumped down the lineup, he should be a good — and cheap — option down the stretch, and a useful defenceman come playoff time.

6. The Oilers will win their first division title since 1986-87

Has it really been that long since the Oilers entered the playoffs as the top seed in their bracket? It’s time for them to break a 37-year drought.

It should be a two-team race for the Pacific Division crown between the Oilers and Golden Knights. Home ice sure would be nice if those two teams met again in a second-round rematch.

Consistency is paramount.

The Oilers had an amazing start two seasons ago, going 5-0, 9-1 and 16-5 under Dave Tippett. They then cratered, Tippett was fired, and they needed an unbelievable second-half run. The lows weren’t as drastic last season, but don’t forget that the Oilers were 23-18-3 heading into the December holiday break. That’s the exact same record they had when Tippett was canned.

The Oilers will have their down moments as any team does, but they should be finished with those big dips. This is a top-five team in the NHL, so they must fulfill that promise and win their division. Good things followed the last time they did so, too.

7. McDavid will become the first repeat Hart Trophy winner since 2009

I mean, he’d better if he’s going to score 70 goals and the Oilers are going to be as good as most people think they’ll be.

8. Campbell will enter the postseason as the starting goaltender

Jack Campbell’s three exhibition appearances were outstanding. He surrendered just three goals in three games with a .971 save percentage. He deserves to start the season-opening game on Wednesday.

There are still more than six months until the second season begins. Lots can happen. I don’t expect Stuart Skinner’s .914 save percentage to decrease much either.

This prediction is more of a commentary on the fickle nature of goaltending. Campbell was so bad last season. He’s looked like the next Patrick Roy this fall. The Oilers should ride the hottest hand in the playoffs. And that very well could be Campbell.

Either way, the Oilers should have a solid tandem — maybe their best since Grant Fuhr and Andy Moog.

9. Gagner will play his first playoff game as an Oiler

This is the first time since Sam Gagner started the season with a locker in the Oilers dressing room that the team is a near lock to make the postseason. Nothing to worry about there.

What makes this prediction so bold is Gagner’s status with the organization — and as an NHL player.

Gagner came to camp on a tryout offer and couldn’t play in a game because he’s still recovering from surgeries on each hip. This isn’t off to a good start.

The thing is Gagner has so much clout within the organization, which is now run by his former agent, Jeff Jackson. He loves this team — and the stars in the room have the utmost respect for him.

He still needs to earn an NHL contract, which will probably require some time in AHL Bakersfield to prove himself. He’ll need some breaks to get into the lineup whether that’s injuries or poor play from others.

But the story of Gagner playing in the playoffs for the Oilers is just too good not to predict. He spent the first seven seasons of his career in Edmonton back when the Oilers were miserable. He then would have been part of the bubble playoffs with the Oilers had he not been dealt in the Andreas Athanasiou trade.

Gagner has played 1,015 regular season games and just 11 postseason contests. Padding those latter stats in Edmonton is just something that would be nice to see.