Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour best bets for Rio de Janeiro, Doha and Marseille
Recommended bets: ATP Tour tennis
1pt e.w. Francisco Cerundolo in the Rio Open at 22/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/3 1,2)
1pt e.w. Roberto Bautista Agut in the Qatar Exxonmobil Open at 18/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/2 1,2)
0.5pt e.w. Jiri Lehecka in the Qatar Exxonmobil Open at 20/1 (BetVictor 1/2 1,2)
1pt e.w. Maxime Cressy in Open 13 at 25/1 (BetVictor 1/2 1,2)
0.5pt e.w. Marc-Andrea Huesler in Open 13 at 50/1 (BetVictor, Betfred 1/2 1,2)
Rio Open
- Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (outdoor clay)
The biggest of this week’s three events on the ATP Tour is the 500-level Rio Open but it’s not the best from a betting perspective.
The field and market has a similar look to last week’s in Buenos Aires with Carlos Alcaraz the top seed and odds-on favourite. In the bottom half, Cameron Norrie is again the second seed.
I was certainly wary of Alcaraz’s lack of matchplay heading into last week’s event which was his first in three months following injury.
However, after dropping a set in his opening match he duly stormed to the title, beating Norrie in the final.
While it is hard to oppose Alcaraz this week, I find it a bit easier to take on Norrie in that half of the draw.
The Briton was frankly fortunate to get to the final. He should have lost his opening match, Facundo Diaz Acosta failing to serve out for a straight-sets win.
He was then a set down to our 66/1 pick Tomas Etcheverry in the quarter-finals when rain halted play. Upon the resumption, Norrie lost only three games and it was a case of what might have been for Etcheverry backers (he would have met a qualifier in the semis too).
The man I’ll try to beat Norrie with this week is FRANCISCO CERUNDOLO.
I was put off backing him last week by a hamstring issue which arose in Cordoba.
In the end, he exited in the quarter-finals last week but his effort did put concerns about the injury largely to one side.
Cerundolo was a semi-finalist here 12 months ago and has delivered his best results at sea-level clay events such as this.
Last year he won his maiden ATP title in Bastad, while two years ago his big breakthrough came in Buenos Aires where he was a surprise finalist.
There are plenty of decent dirtballers in this section but Cerundolo looks the one most likely to topple Norrie to me.
He’s a best price of 22/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes, although they only bet a third of the odds for a place in the final due to Alcaraz’s short price.
Bet365 and Betway are paying the traditional half and go 16/1, and that is also perfectly acceptable.
Qatar Exxonmobil Open
- Doha, Qatar (outdoor hard)
A two-week stint in the Middle East begins this week for the ATP Tour.
Andrey Rublev and Felix Auger-Aliassime are the two top-10 players in the field in Qatar but it’s the newly-crowned Rotterdam champion Daniil Medvedev who is the favourite.
After his impressive display in the Netherlands, that’s perfectly understandable, although conditions will change significantly this week with this being an outdoor venue.
The Plexicushion courts can play fairly quick in the heat but the pace of the ball tends to slow in the night sessions when the temperature often dips considerably.
That could be awkward for the many players arriving from Rotterdam where Rublev lost in the opening round to Alex de Minaur and Auger-Aliassime was beaten by Medvedev in the last eight.
Rublev is a former champion here (in 2020 when the tournament was played in its original January slot) and also won the title in nearby Dubai last season.
That’s a record which shows he may well adapt quickly to the conditions but at 11/2 I’m not seeing a great deal of value in his price.
I’m more interested in another man with a fine record in the Middle East and that’s ROBERTO BAUTISTA AGUT.
The Spaniard is the defending champion this week and also won here in 2019. On top of that, he was the beaten finalist in 2021 and is a former champion at that aforementioned Dubai tournament.
He enjoys courts with a bit of pace but ones which aren’t too fast for his baseline-dominated game. He’ll get that here.
RBA has already been to an ATP final on outdoor hard this season (in Adelaide), while he followed up that effort with a run to the last 16 of the Australian Open.
Last week in Rotterdam he lost first up to Hubert Hurkacz, although the contest was decided by a final-set tie-break which shows he wasn’t far away and played well enough.
The early loss will have given him time to settle into a venue he clearly loves and he looks worth an interest at 18/1.
Critics will point out he’s in Medvedev’s quarter but it’s interesting to note that RBA leads their head-to-head 4-2 with the record on outdoor hard being 3-0.
I think there’s plenty to like about Bautista Agut’s chances this week and will happily back him at the price.
The top half looks to have potential for punters, if you are prepared to take Rublev on.
And, after that loss to De Minaur last week, I am.
The other seeds in the section aren’t exactly frightening.
Alex Zverev is clearly still feeling his way back after six months out and has looked well short of his best in recent weeks.
For someone who spends a lot of downtime in Dubai, Dan Evans has a disappointing record in the Middle East, while Botic van de Zandschulp has beaten no-one ranked higher than 62nd so far this year.
The one I’m therefore going to take a chance on is JIRI LEHECKA at 20/1.
The 21-year-old enjoyed an excellent Australian Open, reaching the quarter-finals following wins over Borna Coric, Cam Norrie and Auger-Aliassime.
He backed that up with two Davis Cup victories to help the Czech Republic qualify for September’s Finals.
Throw in his run to the final of the Next Gen ATP Finals at the end of 2022 and he’s now won 12 of his last 16 matches.
His decent serve should get something out of the daytime conditions here, while in the evening sessions, he has the power from the back of the court to hurt opponents.
Let’s try a small each-way punt.
Open 13
- Marseille, France (indoor hard)
Hubert Hurkacz and Jannik Sinner are the top two seeds in Marseille this week and it’s not hard to make a case for backing either of them.
Hurkacz was our man in Rotterdam last week where he played four tie-breaks, beating Roberto Bautista Agut before losing to Grigor Dimitrov. He banged down 45 aces across those two matches and could be hard to stop this week if he serves like that.
Marseille has tended to be one of the fastest events on the tour, although the recent surface change from Gerflor to Slamcourt appears to have slowed things down a bit.
I can see Hurkacz going well but do I want to back him at 6/1? The answer is no.
Ante-post jolly Sinner is considerably shorter – and again I’m happy to swerve.
The Italian arrives here off the back of a disappointing loss to Daniil Medvedev in the Rotterdam final, a match he led by a set only to win just four more games.
It may be faster than ideal for him this week and even with a first-round bye, 7/4 looks a very short price.
Grigor Dimitrov and Alex de Minaur are others at single-figure odds after decent displays in the Netherlands last week but I’m drawn to the bigger prices and will take one in each half.
In the bottom section, MAXIME CRESSY has the serve to make the most of decent conditions for his game.
Two weeks ago in Montpellier, he made it all the way to the final, beating both Borna Coric and top-10 star Holger Rune en route.
That was his fourth ATP final in less than 14 months and each time he’s managed to get on a roll with a serve which can win many cheap points.
A repeat looks more than possible in Marseille where he’s landed in De Minaur’s quarter.
The Australian won last week’s meeting in Rotterdam in a deciding set but on a quicker court, Cressy could take his revenge.
Up in the top half, I’m pretty sure MARC-ANDREA HUESLER shouldn’t be a 50/1 shot.
The eighth seed won indoors in Sofia last autumn and is another player with a big first serve capable of doing some real damage.
OK, he’s not enjoyed the best of starts to the year but it’s been far from a disaster and he arrives here with a winning record, including a couple of notable victories in the Davis Cup for Switzerland.
Now sitting at a career-high ranking, Huesler looks under-rated at the price and worth a few beans.
Posted at 2020 GMT on 19/02/23
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