Terence Crawford vs. Errol Spence Jr. prediction: Boxing odds, picks

This might be the fight weekend of the year for betting.

After years of avoiding each other, Terence Crawford and Errol Spence Jr. finally face off to decide who’s the best welterweight in the world. 

Crawford owns the WBO title – Saturday will be his seventh defense of that title – while Spence holds the WBA, WBC and IBF titles.

Both fighters are undefeated. 

Crawford is a whopping 39-0 with 30 knockouts. Spence is 38-0 with 22. 

Vegas has dropped odds and props for Saturday’s monster event. Let’s break those down and find the best value. 

Errol Spence Jr. vs. Terence Crawford odds

Sportsbooks opened this fight close to a pick ‘em, but the odds have moved considerably since. 

• Errol Spence Jr. ML: +116

• Terence Crawford ML: -146

At DraftKings:

• Errol Spence Jr. ML: +120

• Terence Crawford ML: -150

• Errol Spence Jr. ML: +115

• Terence Crawford ML: -135

As you can see, money has been pouring in on Crawford. 

Sportsbooks have released several props on the fight, including the total rounds. 

At DraftKings: 

• Over 10.5 rounds: -270

• Under 10.5 rounds: +190

At Caesars: 

• Over 10.5 rounds: -270

• Under 10.5 rounds: +200

The most popular prop market will likely be the Winning Method market. 

Here are some prices available at DraftKings: 

• Errol Spence Jr. by Decision: +225
• Errol Spence Jr. by Knockout: +500
• Terence Crawford by Decision: +180
• Terence Crawford by Knockout: +270
• Draw: +1400

Terence Crawford vs. Errol Spence Jr. prediction: Analysis

There are a few things to break down.

Spence is taller, bigger and stronger, but Crawford has a longer reach. 

Spence will have the edge in power and pressure. He’s crafty, so he finds ways to attack from different angles. And he can attack violently – he’s as explosive as any boxer. 

However, Crawford is the better all-around fighter. He’s a better defender and counter-puncher and about as ambidextrous as any boxer. 

Spence is more powerful, but Crawford is more agile, quick and versatile with better footwork. 

There’s a reason that Floyd Mayweather beat Manny Pacquiao.

Mayweather was the better all-around fighter who could counter Pacquiao’s pressure. 

I expect a very similar fight on Saturday. 

Crawford has the agility to avoid getting dropped and the skills to win on the cards.

He’ll out-box his opponent in a skill-based battle instead of getting pounded in a power-based one, and the extra reach should play a big role in that. 

There’s a reason the odds have moved toward Crawford, and there’s a reason why Vegas is pricing this fight to go the distance. 

Back the odds movement and bet on Crawford to win by decision at solid plus-money odds. 

Terence Crawford vs. Errol Spence Jr. pick

Terence Crawford by Decision (+180)