Texas Rangers magic number: AL West standings, playoff scenarios

There's a scenario, as bad as this sounds, where the Rangers are on the outside looking in, while the Mariners, Blue Jays and Astros are in the playoffs.

DALLAS — It all comes down to this.

The Texas Rangers (89-69) have four games left in the regular season, and they'll enter Thursday night's game against Seattle (85-73) with a 2.5-game lead over the Houston Astros (87-72) in the American League West.

Also important: They own a four-game lead over the Mariners.

The Mariners are still (barely) alive in the hunt for the division title, and so are the Houston Astros. And both teams are also battling for the third Wild Card spot, behind the Toronto Blue Jays. Also, despite the Rangers' division lead this late in the season, they haven't officially clinched a playoff spot.

There's a scenario, as bad as this sounds, where the Rangers are on the outside looking in, while the Mariners, Blue Jays and Astros are in the playoffs.

Deep breaths and positive thoughts, Rangers fans. You got this.

So how could the next four days play out? And come Sunday night, will the Rangers be placing an order for a new American League West banner? Or will they be moving on to 2024?

Below are the good, bad and downright ugly scenarios that could happen. But first, an update on those magic numbers:

What is the Texas Rangers' magic number?

As of Thursday morning, the Rangers' magic number to win the AL West is now 2, which means they need either two wins against Seattle, or two Astros losses, or a combination of the two to win the division.

Their magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 1, which means they need one win against the Mariners to guarantee at least a Wild Card spot.

The Rangers' playoff odds Thursday morning were 99.1%, up from 97% Wednesday.

The Good

Texas takes at least two of four games from the Mariners and clinches the American League West, giving the club its eighth division championship. This would also give the Rangers what is essentially a first-round bye in the playoffs. They would skip the three-game Wild Card series and advance to the American League Division Series, which would start on Saturday, Oct. 7, in Arlington.

The Rangers can also win the AL West with two losses from the Astros, or one win against Seattle and one Astros loss in Arizona.

The Meh

Texas stumbles in Seattle but manages to steal a game from the Mariners to clinch a Wild Card playoff spot. The Astros sweep the Diamondbacks to win the AL West in a tiebreaker with Texas. 

It's not the best outcome, and the Rangers don't get the sweet satisfaction of winning the AL West over the hated Astros. But the Wild Card spot gets the Rangers in the door of the postseason, a lofty goal when the season began. They would likely play a three-game series against the Minnesota Twins, in Minnesota, in the Wild Card round.

The Downright Ugly

The Rangers end the season getting swept in Seattle, while the Toronto Blue Jays win of three of their last four. And the Astros take two of three in Arizona. In this scenario, the Rangers, Astros and Mariners would be tied atop the AL West -- and the Rangers would be the odd team out by way of tiebreaker over combined winning percentage against the other two teams.

The winless finish for Texas also puts them behind the Blue Jays, knocking them out of the postseason picture. A season of high highs and low lows ends on the lowest low imaginable. If the club doesn't decide to just fold up shop for good, they'd be left to wait for 2024.