Texas vs Oklahoma prediction, picks: College Football Odds

The 119th Red River Rivalry is set to kick off at 11 a.m. CT from Dallas, Texas. ABC will carry the national broadcast with Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit on the call straight from the set of College GameDay.

Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, is favoring the Longhorns by nearly a touchdown with the over/under set at 61 total points.

While most of the country has spent the season wondering if Steve Sarkisian's Texas squad is back, the Oklahoma Sooners have quietly gotten off to a 5-0 start. This will be the first time these historic rivals convene in the Cotton Bowl as undefeated teams since 2009. It'll also be the first time they go head-to-head as Top 15 teams since 2019, so the conference stakes speak for themselves.

Let's take a closer look at the odds, highlight some picks and a make prediction for the 2023 Red River Rivalry:

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Odds

Time/TV: Saturday at 11 a.m. (ABC)

Spread: Texas -5.5

Over/Under: 61

Moneyline: Texas -220, Oklahoma +180

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns Top Pick

Oklahoma vs. Texas UNDER 61 points (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Oklahoma and Texas have historically scored a lot of points during their rivalry meetings. The two sides scored over 61 points in all five games played from 2018 to 2021. The streak ended when the Longhorns shut out the Sooners last season in a 49-0 thrashing.

I'm under the impression we'll see the under hit again in this contest. Four out of Texas' five games this season have seen the under cash. Oklahoma unders have hit in three of five games, so we'll ride the trends here. If you're not buying the trends, it's worth taking a look at the statistics.

Texas' defense is giving up 12.8 points per game through the first five weeks. Opposing the Longhorns is a defensive-minded head coach in Brent Venables who will do everything in his power to keep Quinn Ewers and Co. out of the end zone after they nearly hung a 50-burger on him last year. The Sooners are much improved this season on that side of the ball too. Opponents are averaging 10.8 points per game on them, down from 25.2 points this time last year.

The under seems like a pretty safe play.

Prediction: Texas 34, Oklahoma 21 (Under 61)

OTHER PICKS

Texas -5.5 vs. Oklahoma (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)

This line is being respectful to the Sooners. Oddsmakers are showing Oklahoma some respect given they look much improved this season. They enter this game undefeated for the first time under Venables, but they haven't been tested too often through those first few weeks.

Meanwhile, Texas has beaten the likes of Alabama and Kansas, both rather comfortably in the end. The Longhorns may just be the best team in the country.

It comes down to this: I don't believe Oklahoma has done enough in the span of one calendar year to close a 49-point gap between these two sides. They've both improved drastically, I think the Sooners keep it within a couple of scores. However, Texas should have no problem covering a 5.5-point spread after beating Alabama in front of a sold-out Bryant-Denny Stadium by double digits.

Xavier Worthy anytime touchdown scorer (-108 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Xavier Worthy has emerged as Ewers' favorite target over their season and a half together. He's averaging five receptions per game this season and he's scored in three of Texas' five games.

Worthy came up big time when the lights were brightest against Alabama, so I'd imagine he'll have an important part to play on Saturday too. He's got some good anytime touchdown scorer value for a No. 1 receiver at -108.